Stocks Start Week Near All-Time Highs 20/04/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. stocks surged Friday after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open,” easing fears of a prolonged supply shock following a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Lebanon. The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.52%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.79%. Oil prices tumbled as concerns over disruptions to crude flows faded, with West Texas Intermediate falling nearly 12% to settle at $83.85 a barrel. Shares of companies seen as especially vulnerable to a prolonged closure of the strait rebounded sharply. Boeing and Royal Caribbean gained 2% and 7%, respectively, while Amazon and Airbnb also moved higher. The relief proved short-lived. Stock futures fell early Monday after tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated over the weekend following the seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.
• President Donald Trump said Sunday that U.S. forces had fired on and seized the vessel in the Gulf of Oman after Iran declined to participate in another round of peace talks planned by the U.S. in Pakistan. Crude prices jumped in early trading as geopolitical risk returned to the forefront. West Texas Intermediate rose 8% to $90.54 a barrel, while Brent gained 6% to $96.50. With no major earnings or economic releases on Monday’s calendar, market sentiment is likely to be driven primarily by developments in the Middle East.

Gold-Platinum Ratio Flashes Warning

• The outlook for U.S. stocks is continuing to weaken, at least according to one lesser-known indicator with a strong record of signaling 12-month market returns: the gold-platinum ratio. The ratio of gold to platinum was already falling when concerns first emerged late last year, and it has declined further since then, a pattern that has historically pointed to softer returns for the S&P 500 over the following year. The signal comes from research published in the Journal of Financial Economics, where authors found that the gold-platinum ratio outperformed most traditional indicators in forecasting stock-market returns over the next 12 months. Their conclusions were based on data from 1975 through 2013, and the relationship has remained broadly intact in the years since, including through the pandemic-driven selloff and rebound in 2020.
• The intuition is rooted in the different roles the two metals play. Both respond to economic conditions, but gold is more sensitive to geopolitical risk and uncertainty, while platinum is more closely tied to industrial demand. When the ratio rises, it can reflect increasing geopolitical stress, which tends to pressure stocks in the near term even as it implies higher expected returns later. When the ratio falls, that support fades. Put differently, the ratio tends to move inversely with stocks in real time, but positively as a forward-looking gauge. That may seem counterintuitive given persistent geopolitical tensions, but other measures suggest some easing in background risk. A geopolitical risk index developed by Federal Reserve economists Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello fell sharply by mid-April from its early-March peak and was well below the highs reached last year. The ratio does not offer much insight into the market’s path over the next several weeks or months. But with the decline now stretching back nearly a year, the message is that the equity rally may be increasingly vulnerable over a 12-month horizon.

Stocks on the move:

• Critical Metals (CRML): surged more than 40% after Greenland approved the transfer of a 50.5% stake in Tanbreez Mining, increasing the company’s interest in the rare-earth project to 92.5%.
• Strategy (MSTR): gained about 13% as bitcoin rose 3% to top $77,000, pushing the value of the company’s bitcoin holdings back above its average purchase price.
• Alcoa (AA): fell 7% after the aluminum producer reported quarterly earnings and revenue that missed analyst estimates.
• Affirm (AFRM): jumped more than 8% after Morgan Stanley named the stock a top pick, citing potential earnings upside and easing concerns around private credit.

Watchlist: CLF, XOM, USO, AAL, SNDK, MU, AAPL, NFLX

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

No major economic event today


Earnings

BMC (Before Market Open): Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Bank of Hawaii (BOH), Dynex Capital (DX)

AMC (After Market Close): Steel Dynamics (STLD) Zions Bancorp (ZION), Alaska Air Group (ALK)




The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!