Gold and Bitcoin Back in Focus? 05/10/2026
Market Wrap
U.S. stocks finished higher Friday, capping a volatile week as a weaker-than-expected jobs report eased concerns over another Federal Reserve rate increase this month.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 250 points, or 0.5%, to 51,176.46, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 7,722.72. The Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.2% to 27,190.86 after touching an all-time high earlier in the session.
The advance provided some relief after surging Treasury yields pressured equities for much of the week. Softer labor-market data helped temper expectations for further Fed tightening, though elevated borrowing costs remain a key risk for stocks.
The 10-year Treasury yield remains near its highest level in more than two decades, keeping investors focused on whether higher rates could eventually weigh on economic growth and equity valuations even if the Fed stays on hold.
Technology stocks led Friday's rally, with Nvidia (NVDA) reaching an intraday record and helping push the Nasdaq to fresh highs. Investors will now be watching whether the tech-led momentum can carry into the new week.
Gold and Bitcoin are also moving back into focus. Any further easing in Treasury yields or Fed rate expectations could provide support for both assets, while continued geopolitical uncertainty may strengthen demand for alternative stores of value. Conversely, another sharp rise in yields could quickly challenge that momentum.
Attention turns Monday to the ISM services report, followed by minutes from the Fed's September meeting on Wednesday and the University of Michigan's preliminary October consumer sentiment reading on Friday.
Earnings will also remain in focus, with Constellation Brands (STZ), Levi Strauss (LEVI), PepsiCo (PEP) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) among the companies set to report this week.
With a relatively light economic calendar, Treasury yields, geopolitical developments and corporate earnings are likely to remain key drivers for markets — while gold and Bitcoin could offer another important read on investor risk appetite.
October's Scary Reputation May Be Overdone — But Risks Are Building
October has a reputation for market turmoil, but nearly a century of history suggests the month is not as dangerous for stocks as investors might think.
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.5% gain in October and finished the month higher 58% of the time, according to Dow Jones Market Data. While that ranks in the weaker half of the calendar, only February and September have produced negative average returns over the same period.
October's reputation largely reflects several historic market crashes and bear-market lows, including 1929, 1987, 2008 and 2022.
This year, however, investors have reasons to remain cautious. DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas pointed to rising Treasury yields and increasingly narrow market leadership as key vulnerabilities. Much of the market came under pressure in September while AI-related technology stocks helped keep the major indexes relatively resilient.
That concentration could become a bigger risk if Treasury yields continue climbing. Strong earnings expectations have helped insulate AI stocks from higher rates, but persistently elevated borrowing costs could eventually challenge even the market's strongest performers.
History nevertheless offers some support for the bulls. During midterm-election years since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 3.9% gain during the month leading up to Election Day. The fourth quarter has also historically been the strongest period of the year for U.S. equities.
For now, Treasury yields remain the key variable. Friday's rally showed that easing yields can quickly revive risk appetite, while another sharp move higher could put renewed pressure on stocks.
Investors will also be watching the VIX for signs of stress. The volatility index ended Friday near 15.5, suggesting markets remain relatively calm despite weakness beneath the surface.
With Fed policy, elevated Treasury yields and narrow market leadership all in focus, October may not deserve its fearsome reputation — but the setup leaves little room for complacency.
Stocks on the Move
- Tesla (TSLA): Shares climbed 5% after third-quarter deliveries topped Wall Street expectations. Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles during the quarter, above the 461,100 expected by analysts.
- Broadcom (AVGO): Shares gained more than 3% following reports that the chipmaker agreed to provide Anthropic with up to $42 billion in financing to support infrastructure purchases, including chips and other computing hardware.
- Nike (NKE): Shares dropped nearly 6% after fiscal first-quarter revenue missed expectations. Sales declined 4%, weighed down by continued weakness in China, while the company also announced plans for workforce reductions beginning in 2027.
- ON Semiconductor (ON), Synaptics (SYNA): Synaptics surged 14% and ON Semiconductor gained more than 5% after ON raised its takeover offer for Synaptics to $123 per share, valuing the deal at roughly $5.7 billion.
- Nexalin Technology (NXL): Shares plunged 26% after the medical-device company announced a 10-year distribution and manufacturing agreement with Inovanexa Medical Technologies, replacing an earlier letter of intent.
Watchlist: TSLA, ON, MSTR, COIN, XOM, CVX, AEHR, GOOGL, META, SPCX, RKLB
Key Economic Events Today
Economic Data (EST)
- 09:45 AM — USD Final Services PMI
- 10:00 AM — USD ISM Services PMI
Earnings
No significant earnings today!
