Post-Thanksgiving optimism in markets 29/11/2024

HOT stories for today

Stocks on the move:

• Nordstrom (JWN): Shares fell 8.1% after CEO Erik Nordstrom reported a slowdown in sales starting in late October. Despite this, the company’s third-quarter revenue of $3.46 billion beat the $3.35 billion LSEG consensus.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN): The stock jumped 18.3% after reporting third-quarter earnings of $1.10 per share, exceeding the 86 cents expected by analysts polled by LSEG. Revenue also topped estimates, coming in at $1.35 billion versus the $1.34 billion consensus.
• CrowdStrike (CRWD): Shares dropped 4.6% following slightly weaker-than-expected guidance from the cybersecurity company.
• Workday (WDAY): The stock declined 6.2% as the human resources software company issued disappointing guidance for the fourth quarter.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin briefly surpassed $97,000 on Thursday, fueling speculation about reaching the $100,000 milestone, but later retraced to around $95,500. The cryptocurrency rose 3.3% over the past 24 hours, ahead of a Thanksgiving weekend that has historically seen sudden price fluctuations. Broader market optimism followed President-elect Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary.
• Ethereum (ETH) outperformed Bitcoin, surging 7%, driven by increased on-chain activity, rising volumes, new wallet creations, and higher revenue. Data reveals cumulative open interest in Ethereum futures has reached a record 6.32 million ETH, valued at over $27 billion, signaling heightened investor expectations for volatility and further price gains. Other major tokens mirrored Bitcoin's strength, with XRP and BNB Chain each gaining 6%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) up more than 5%. Activity levels in ETH-linked futures and on-chain movements suggest sustained bullish momentum for the second-largest cryptocurrency.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 90 000-99 590, Ethereum: 3000-3500, Solana: 220-265

Forex

• EUR/USD saw renewed buying interest on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) dropped to a two-week low. Reduced expectations for a large European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut bolstered the Euro, pushing the pair closer to the weekly high. However, spot prices remain below the critical 1.0600 level, which, if breached, could pave the way for a continuation of the recent recovery from the two-year low reached last Friday. Traders are now focusing on the Eurozone’s flash consumer inflation data for November, with core HICP inflation expected to rise 2.8% year-over-year from 2.7% in October.
• Meanwhile, EUR/JPY lost momentum and traded near 158.80 during the Asian session as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened following robust Tokyo CPI data. Headline Tokyo CPI surged to 2.6% YoY in November, up from 1.8% in October, while core inflation (excluding Fresh Food and Energy) rose 2.2% YoY, beating the expected 2.1% and marking a three-month high. The strong inflation figures supported the JPY, weighing on the EUR/JPY pair.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0300-1.0650, USD/JPY: 150-157

Basic Materials

• Gold prices (XAU/USD) saw renewed buying interest on Friday, climbing to a four-day high near $2,662 during the Asian session. Escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns over trade wars fueled safe-haven demand for the precious metal. Additionally, a weakened US Dollar hit a two-week low, and falling US Treasury yields provided further support for gold. However, expectations of a more cautious approach by the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts in December could cap significant upside for the non-yielding asset. Despite this, the overall risk-averse environment of gold is a preferred safe-haven investment.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude oil benchmark, traded steadily around $68.85 during Friday’s early Asian session. The price movement reflects a balance between concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which poses risks to Russian oil supplies, and tempered expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, OPEC+ has rescheduled its upcoming meeting on output policy to December 5, moving it from the originally planned December 1 date. This delay adds an element of uncertainty to the market, keeping WTI prices range-bound for now.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2530-2790, US Oil: 65.00-73.00

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!