Is Halloween spirit weighing on stocks? 01/11/2024

HOT stories for today

Stocks on the move:

• Peloton's (PTON) shares surged 29% on Thursday, their largest single-day jump since August 22, after posting stronger-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings. The company also announced that Peter Stern, an executive from Ford, will step in as CEO starting January 1, 2025.
• Intel (INTC) shares climbed over 14% on upbeat third-quarter revenue. The company’s results were bolstered by a rebound in its data center business and a gradual recovery in the PC market, both contributing to an improved outlook. Alongside this positive report, Intel issued optimistic guidance for the upcoming quarter, boosting investor confidence in its ongoing turnaround efforts.
• Atlassian (TEAM) saw a 16% rally after reporting fiscal first-quarter earnings and revenue that surpassed analyst expectations. The software firm achieved a 21% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $977.8 million, driven by a 31% rise in subscription revenue.
•  Meanwhile, Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) gained 7%, driven by higher-than-expected earnings and revenue. Solid demand supported pricing and bookings into the next fiscal year. 

Markets & today's action:

• Asia-Pacific markets started mixed on Friday, following Wall Street’s steepest drop in nearly two months due to a cautious earnings outlook from Microsoft and Meta. Asian traders reviewed a range of regional economic data, including the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for October, which came in at 50.3. This exceeded the median forecast of 49.7. European markets also faced selling pressure, driven by disappointing inflation data and underwhelming earnings from a major automaker. China’s CSI 300 rose by 0.87%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained over 1.57%. In contrast, Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined by 2.26%, following the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold its benchmark policy rate at 0.25% on Thursday.
• Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.35% Thursday night, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 47 points (0.11%) and S&P 500 futures inched up by 0.2%. Investors are closely watching Friday’s employment report. Dow Jones’ survey predicts an addition of 100,000 nonfarm jobs in October—the smallest increase in nearly four years—and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. In addition, Friday will bring earnings reports from Chevron and Exxon Mobil, wrapping up the busiest earnings week of the season, which included results from nearly a third of S&P 500 companies.

Watchlist for today: AMZN, AAPL, INTC, XOM, CVX, W, ENB, D
 

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin's push toward a record high is losing momentum as Republican nominee Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance becomes less specific amid declining election odds in betting markets. The cryptocurrency dropped below $69,000 on Friday after falling 4% in U.S. trading a day prior—the steepest drop in a month. This decline coincides with a tightening gap between Trump and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris on betting platforms like PredictIt, Polymarket, and Kalshi, where users wager on election outcomes. Prediction markets remain controversial, with debates about their reliability and susceptibility to manipulation. Opinion polls, meanwhile, show a tight race as Election Day approaches on Nov. 5.
• “Bitcoin may dip if Harris wins, though its reaction to a Trump victory is less predictable,” Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research Inc. noted. “The currency could keep rallying, or given its year-to-date gains; it might fall in a classic ‘buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news’ scenario.”
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 69 000-73 620, Ethereum: 2380-2780, Solana: 162-185

Forex

• The EUR/USD pair pauses its four-day rally, trading near 1.0870 during Friday's Asian session. This pullback is linked to a stronger US Dollar, buoyed by persistent market caution ahead of the upcoming US presidential election.
• Meanwhile, the Japanese yen has returned some recent gains following Jibun Bank and S&P Global's Friday release of the Manufacturing PMI. However, the USD/JPY pair declined as the Yen regained strength after Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments on Thursday, which were perceived as raising the chances of a rate hike in December.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0750-1.0850, USD/JPY: 151.30-154.20

Basic Materials

• U.S. crude oil futures closed up nearly 1% on Thursday amid signs that OPEC+ might hold off on its planned production increase and an uptick in U.S. gasoline demand. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 65 cents, or 0.95%, settling at $69.26 per barrel, while Brent crude added 61 cents, or 0.84%, closing at $73.16 per barrel. According to sources, OPEC+ may consider delaying its scheduled December production boost by at least a month, as concerns about ample supplies in the coming year have recently pressured prices. Additionally, U.S. gasoline inventories dropped by 2.7 million barrels last week, indicating rising demand. 
• Gold prices (XAU/USD) regained some ground on Friday, supported by uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. These factors increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, gains may be limited by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar, which reduce gold's attractiveness.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2700-2790, US Oil: 66.70-71.00

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!