The US consumer: Last bastion or next to fall? 16/07/2026

 HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• US stocks finished higher Wednesday as softer-than-expected inflation data and another round of strong bank earnings reinforced optimism that the Federal Reserve can keep interest rates on hold. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 151 points, or 0.3%, to 52,659.18. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,572.43, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6% to close at 26,269.23. A weaker-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) added to growing evidence that inflation pressures are easing, while robust quarterly results from major financial institutions reassured investors that corporate earnings remain resilient. Lower Treasury yields also supported growth stocks, with megacap technology shares leading the advance. Geopolitical risks remained in focus as renewed tensions between the US and Iran continued to support oil prices, although hopes for a diplomatic resolution helped limit gains. Traditional safe-haven assets were little changed despite the heightened uncertainty. Chinese technology stocks also attracted attention after Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) announced a partnership with Apple (AAPL) to deploy artificial-intelligence tools, lifting shares of both companies. Investors now turn their attention to Thursday's retail sales and weekly jobless claims reports for further clues on the strength of the US economy. Earnings season also remains in focus, with UnitedHealth (UNH) reporting before the opening bell and Netflix (NFLX) scheduled to release results after the close.

Warsh Reaffirms Inflation Fight

• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to restoring price stability, telling lawmakers that bringing inflation back under control remains the Fed's top priority despite a resilient US economy. Testifying before Congress, Warsh described elevated inflation as an "unfair burden" on households and businesses, while criticizing the Fed's 2020 flexible average inflation targeting framework, calling it a policy mistake that contributed to persistently high inflation. 
• Warsh said the economy continues to expand at a solid pace, supported by robust business investment, particularly in artificial intelligence. He argued that AI-driven capital spending could eventually boost productivity and become a lasting driver of economic growth. The Fed chief also outlined a broad review of the central bank's operations, including monetary policy, communications, technology, economic data and balance-sheet management, saying the reforms mark the beginning of a "new chapter" for the Federal Reserve.

Stocks on the move:

• SpaceX (SPCX): Shares fell for a fourth consecutive session, slipping below the company’s $135 initial public offering price for the first time.
• Apple (AAPL), Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU): Apple climbed about 4% to a record high after Apple Intelligence cleared a major regulatory hurdle in China, paving the way for the service to be introduced on iPhones in the country. No launch date has been announced. Alibaba gained 5% and Baidu rose 2% as both companies are expected to partner with Apple on the rollout.
• Cava (CAVA): Shares advanced 5.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the fast-casual restaurant chain to overweight from equal weight. The bank cited a defensible valuation and described Cava as one of the strongest fundamental stories in the restaurant sector.
• Lionsgate (LION): Shares jumped more than 6% after Reuters reported that the studio is exploring a potential sale. France’s Bollore Group has reportedly expressed interest, while Banijay Group was also named as a possible buyer.

Watchlist: TSM, UNH, GE, ABT, USB, MU, IBM, COIN, SPCX, STT

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Core Retail Sales
08:30 am: USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
08:30 am: USD Unemployment Claims
10:00 am: USD Business Inventories
10:00 am: USD Pending Home Sales
12:30 pm: USD FOMC Member Logan Speaks
07:00 pm: USD FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): Taiwan Semic. (TSM), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), GE Aerospace (GE), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Prologis (PLD), U:S: Bancorp (USB), State Street Corp. (STT)

AMC (After Market Close): Netflix (NFLX)



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!