S&P 500 returns to positive territory 25/10/2025

HOT stories for today

Stocks on the move:

• Bank of America made a rare post-market move Thursday, downgrading Honeywell (HON, -2.46%) from "buy" to "neutral" and lowering its price target to $230 from $250, indicating only a 4% upside from Wednesday’s close. 
• Meanwhile, American Airlines (AAL, -3.03%)) raised its full-year profit forecast, reflecting improvements in recovering from a failed sales strategy, though it continues to face high costs.
• Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG, -8.89%) reported declining motorcycle shipments for the latest quarter due to weaker demand for its high-margin bikes, leading the company to lower its full-year forecast.
• In after-hours trading, L3Harris (LHX, +3.67%) shares jumped over 4% after the defense company surpassed Wall Street’s expectations with its third-quarter earnings report. Meanwhile, Dexcom (DXCM) shares fell more than 3% despite the company beating estimates on both revenue and earnings.

Watchlist for today: LHX, DXCM, BA, HCA, CL, AN, KOF, CNC
 

Markets & today's action:

• Asia-Pacific markets mostly climbed on Friday as investors anticipated Japan’s upcoming general election over the weekend. Japan also released October inflation data for Tokyo, a key indicator of nationwide trends, making it the last central economic data point before the election.
• In the U.S., S&P 500 futures remained flat Thursday night after the index snapped a three-day losing streak. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 increased less than 0.1%, while Dow Jones futures rose just 3 points. Investors are watching Friday's earnings reports from Colgate-Palmolive, AutoNation, and Newell Brands, along with economic data on durable goods and consumer sentiment.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin's price saw a notable increase today, rising 4% between October 23 and 24, as a combination of factors boosted investor sentiment. A recovery in the U.S. job market, strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and impressive earnings from the tech sector all contributed to this surge. After retesting the $65,200 level, Bitcoin's rise was also driven by a reversal of the previous day's outflows in Bitcoin ETFs.
• Bitcoin's strong correlation with the tech sector is evident despite arguments that its price drivers differ from the stock market's. The 50-day correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market has stayed above 80% throughout October, highlighting the close connection between Bitcoin’s movements and tech stocks. This correlation suggests that factors influencing tech, such as earnings reports and market sentiment, also play a role in Bitcoin's recent price activity.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 65.200-69,780, Ethereum: 2440-2790, Solana: 167.50-180.20

Forex

• The EUR/USD pair slipped slightly on Friday but saw limited selling pressure. A softer U.S. bond yield backdrop lent some support to the Euro, tempering the USD's strength. However, expectations of gentler Fed policy and potential ECB rate cuts limited upward momentum. Following a 60-pip gain on Thursday, EUR/USD traded with a mildly bearish tone during the Asian session but held above 1.0800, staying well above Wednesday’s nearly four-month low.
• In contrast, the Japanese Yen encountered mixed cues, with buyers cautious due to Tokyo’s inflation data and the uncertainty of Japan’s upcoming election. Tokyo's core inflation dipped below the Bank of Japan's 2% target, dampening hopes for 2024 rate hikes and weighing on the Yen. Meanwhile, positive market sentiment further reduced demand for the Yen’s safe-haven appeal, keeping USD/JPY in a tight range with minor fluctuations through the Asian session. 
  Whatchlits: EUR/USD: 1.0760-1.0900, USD/JPY: 150-153.30

Basic Materials

• Oil prices rose after Thursday's drop in the commodities market, as concerns about oversupply overshadowed fears of potential Israeli retaliation against Iran.
• Meanwhile, gold saw renewed selling pressure on Friday due to a slight rise in the U.S. dollar, bolstered by expectations of more moderate Fed rate cuts. This strength in the dollar weighed on XAU/USD, though geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty in the U.S. ahead of the November 5 presidential election could support gold. Despite sliding during the Asian session, gold remains within its weekly range, with ongoing risks in the Middle East and U.S. election uncertainty keeping its safe-haven appeal intact.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2700-2770, US Oil: 68.70-72.50

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!