Markets Digest U.S.–Iran Developments 22/06/2026

 HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• Stocks rebounded Thursday as investors stepped back into risk assets following the previous session’s Fed-driven selloff, despite policymakers signaling that another rate hike remains possible later this year. The S&P 500 gained 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 72 points, recovering part of Wednesday’s losses. Technology led the advance, with Intel surging 10.6% after President Donald Trump announced a partnership between Intel and Apple to develop chips in the United States. Nvidia and Micron also posted strong gains, helping lift the broader semiconductor sector. The holiday-shortened week ended on a positive note. The S&P 500 advanced 0.9% for its 11th gain in the past 12 weeks, while the Dow added 0.7%. The Nasdaq outperformed, rising 2.4% as investors returned to AI and growth-related names. Geopolitical developments were less encouraging.
• The highly anticipated U.S.-Iran summit in Switzerland failed to deliver a final peace agreement, with negotiators instead agreeing to extend the current ceasefire for another 60 days while discussions continue. Oil prices moved lower on Monday after mediators Qatar and Pakistan said both sides had agreed on a framework aimed at reaching a comprehensive deal within the next two months. U.S. equity futures traded modestly lower early Monday as investors assessed the latest Middle East developments and shifted focus back to inflation. The key event this week will be Thursday’s release of the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and an important test for expectations surrounding future monetary policy.

Rate-hike threat may not kill the bull market

• Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting signaled a new communication era, with less forward guidance and more reliance on markets to price the path of inflation and rates. The Fed kept rates unchanged, but the dot plot showed a possible hike later this year, pushing the 2-year Treasury yield to its highest level since February 2025. Markets took the message seriously, even as stocks still finished the week higher. Some strategists argue that fewer Fed signals may ultimately be healthy, forcing investors to focus more on actual economic data instead of parsing every word from policymakers. 
• History also suggests that rate hikes alone do not necessarily end bull markets. Since the early 1990s, the S&P 500 has risen during four of the past five Fed hiking cycles. The bigger risk may be whether the AI-driven economy can keep carrying both investment and sentiment. Corporate borrowing is rising to fund the AI buildout, while consumer spending has been supported by falling savings and rising asset prices. If AI enthusiasm holds, the market may absorb a more hawkish Fed. But if the AI narrative breaks, the bull market could lose its main support.

Stocks on the move:

• Enphase Energy (ENPH): Shares jumped 10% after the company began production shipments of its IQ9S microinverters. Barclays also upgraded the stock to equal weight from underweight.
• Corning (GLW), Credo Technology (CRDO), Coherent (COHR), Applied Digital (APLD): AI and data-center infrastructure names rallied as investors rotated back into the theme, with Corning up 7%, Credo gaining 5%, Coherent rising 4% and Applied Digital adding more than 2%.
• ConocoPhillips (COP), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX): Energy stocks fell as oil prices dropped following the U.S.-Iran peace deal, with ConocoPhillips and Occidental down about 3%, while Exxon and Chevron lost more than 2%.
• Kroger (KR): Shares tumbled more than 6% after first-quarter earnings missed estimates by a penny, despite revenue coming in ahead of expectations.
• Steel Dynamics (STLD): Shares dropped 7% after second-quarter earnings guidance came in well below Wall Street forecasts.

Watchlist: SPCX, MRVL, INTC, MU, ENPH, GLW, RKLB, RGTI, XOM

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

09:00 am: USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks


Earnings

BMC (Before Market Open): Fervo Energy (FRVO), Outdoor Holding (POWW)




The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!