High Oil Prices Raise Inflation Concerns 21/05/2026

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Market wrap:

• Stocks rebounded Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak for the S&P 500 as both oil prices and bond yields eased. Investor sentiment improved after President Donald Trump said the U.S. was in the “final stages” of negotiations with Iran, raising hopes that the Middle East conflict may be moving closer to a resolution. The risk-on tone carried into Asia-Pacific markets Thursday, where shares opened higher as cooling oil prices helped ease inflation and supply-shock concerns. Still, Fed minutes added a more cautious layer. Officials showed growing support for taking an initial step toward a possible rate hike, warning that high energy prices and tariffs continue to put upward pressure on inflation.
•  Most policymakers noted the rising risk that inflation may take longer to return to the Fed’s 2% target, while a majority said rate hikes could become appropriate if inflation remains elevated. After the bell, Nvidia cleared Wall Street’s key data-center expectations, though shares still slipped in extended trading. Investors now turn to Walmart earnings before the open, followed by Workday after the close, alongside jobless claims, housing and manufacturing data.

Nvidia Beat Isn’t Enough to Extend AI Rally

• Nvidia (NVDA) delivered another strong earnings beat, but shares still slipped after hours as investors weighed sky-high expectations, competition risks and broader macro uncertainty. Adjusted earnings came in at $1.87 per share, above estimates of $1.76, while revenue reached $81.62 billion, topping forecasts for $78.86 billion. CEO Jensen Huang said demand has gone “parabolic,” driven by the arrival of agentic AI and the rapid global buildout of AI infrastructure. Data center revenue nearly doubled, while Nvidia also announced an $80 billion buyback and raised its dividend.
• Huang said Nvidia is powering major frontier AI models and expanding into sovereign AI clouds, robotics, autonomous systems and full AI infrastructure platforms. He also highlighted the upcoming Vera CPU platform as a major long-term growth opportunity. Still, investors focused on risks. Nvidia acknowledged that major cloud customers are developing their own custom AI chips, while a prolonged Iran conflict could create business and supply-chain uncertainty.

Stocks on the move:

• Nvidia (NVDA): Shares were little changed after revenue surged 85% year over year to $81.62 billion, topping LSEG estimates of $78.86 billion.
• Intuit (INTU): Shares tumbled 10.3% after the financial software company announced a 17% workforce reduction and missed fiscal third-quarter revenue expectations.
• E.l.f. Beauty (ELF): Shares jumped nearly 5% after the beauty retailer beat fourth-quarter earnings and revenue estimates and said it plans to reverse some tariff-related price hikes.
• Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK): Shares rose 3% after first-quarter earnings and revenue came in well above Wall Street expectations.

Watchlist: NVDA, ELF, INTU, WMT, NTES, DE, WSM, RL, VIPS, MU

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
08:30 am: USD Unemployment Claims
08:30 am: USD Housing Starts, Building Permits
09:45 am: USD Flash Manufac., Services PMI
12:20 pm: USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks



Earnings

BMC (Before Market Open): Wallmart (WMT), Deere and Company (DE), NetEase (NTES), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Ralph Lauren (RL), Nio Inc. (NIO)

AMC (After Market Close): Ross Stores (ROST), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), Workday (WDAY), Copart (CPRT), Zoom Communications (ZM)


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!