Crypto Markets Stir as Bitcoin Tests Momentum 02/04/2026

HOT stories for today



 

US market wrap:

• US stocks rose on Wednesday, and oil prices fell as investors leaned further into the view that the US-Iran war could be nearing an end. The S&P 500 gained 0.72% to 6,575.32, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.16% to 21,840.95. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 224 points, or 0.48%, to close at 46,565.74. President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that Iran’s president had asked the US for a ceasefire. He also told reporters late Tuesday that US forces could leave Iran in “two or three weeks,” helping to reinforce hopes of de-escalation. Oil prices moved lower on those comments. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.24% to settle at $100.12 a barrel, while Brent crude dropped 2.7% to $101.16. The decline in crude helped support a broad rally in equities, with nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finishing higher. Industrials led the advance with a 1.9% gain, followed by communication services at 1.8%. Materials, information technology, and consumer discretionary also rose more than 1%.
• That relief proved short-lived. Futures turned sharply lower early Thursday after Trump said in a national address that the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two or three weeks. Asian markets reversed earlier gains, while US stock futures fell more than 1% for all three major indexes. Treasury yields also climbed after the speech, signaling renewed pressure in bonds, with the 10-year yield rising 6 basis points to 4.38%. The dollar reversed earlier losses, with the dollar index up 0.37% to 100.02. Bitcoin fell Thursday, tracking broader weakness across cryptocurrencies and other risk assets after President Donald Trump signaled a potential escalation in military action against Iran.  The world’s largest cryptocurrency, along with the broader digital-asset market, has been struggling to find direction in recent weeks, with prices largely rangebound as competing macro forces offset each other.  Geopolitical tensions are adding to that uncertainty, reinforcing a risk-off tone that continues to weigh on sentiment and delay a clearer trend in crypto markets. Investors now turn to initial jobless claims on Thursday. US markets will be closed on Friday for Good Friday.

Iran War Risks a New Energy Shock

• President Donald Trump sought to reassure Americans that the worst of the Iran war is over, saying the recent surge in gasoline prices is temporary and will reverse once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. “The hard part is done,” he said in a national address Wednesday, adding that fuel costs should “rapidly come back down. ”Markets and consumers may face a more difficult path. US gasoline prices have already climbed above $4 a gallon for the first time since the conflict began, tracking a roughly 27% rise in Brent crude to above $100 a barrel. With tanker traffic disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of global oil supply, the risk of further supply strain remains elevated. The impact is becoming more pronounced globally. Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled, while liquefied natural gas prices in Asia have surged more than 40%. Although the US is less directly exposed to Middle East supply than Europe or Asia, global energy markets remain tightly interconnected, meaning disruptions are quickly transmitted across regions. Some analysts warn oil could climb toward $150 a barrel if the conflict persists and supply constraints deepen. For now, markets are still benefiting from shipments that were already in transit before the war began, as well as emergency releases from strategic reserves — buffers that are now being drawn down. 
• The longer the disruption lasts, the greater the risk of a broader economic shock. Higher energy costs act as a tax on consumers, eroding spending power and raising the likelihood of slower growth or recession. Governments are beginning to respond by encouraging energy conservation, though the US has so far avoided calls for restraint. That reflects both political sensitivity and historical precedent, as past energy crises in the 1970s reshaped public expectations of government and contributed to lasting economic and political fallout. For Trump, the stakes are high. A swift resolution could stabilize markets and ease pressure on consumers. But if energy prices remain elevated and the conflict drags on, the economic and political consequences could prove far more difficult to contain — echoing past periods when oil shocks defined entire presidencies.

Stocks on the move:

• Eli Lilly (LLY): Shares rose about 4% after the Food and Drug Administration approved Foundayo, the company’s once-daily GLP-1 pill for obesity treatment.
• Hasbro (HAS): Shares fell more than 4% after the toymaker disclosed a cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized access to its network. The company said it has taken some systems offline and is investigating the full scope of the breach while taking additional steps to protect the business.
• Philip Morris International (PM): Shares dropped more than 5% after Reuters reported that the FDA had delayed authorization for sales of nicotine pouch products amid concerns from agency scientists about risks to new users, including children.
• Intel (INTC): Shares jumped 9% after the chipmaker said it would buy back a 49% stake in its Ireland Fab 34 joint venture from Apollo Global Management (APO) for $14.2 billion. Intel said the deal, which will be funded with cash and about $6.5 billion in new debt, gives it full control of a facility that produces chips using its Intel 3 and Intel 4 technologies.

Watchlist: INTC, SLV, LLY, NVDA, MSFT, META, COIN, XOM, AAPL

Key Economic Events Today (EST):

08:30 am: USD Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance
10:15 am: USD FOMC Member Logan Speaks
12:45 pm: USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks



Earnings Calendar:

BMO (Before Market Open): Acuity Inc. (AYI), Lindsay Corp (LNN), Angio Dynamics (ANGO)





The TEFS Analyst Team wishes you a successful trading day!