Bitcoin Faces Macro Pressure as Volatility Builds 26/03/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• US stocks rose on Wednesday, extending this week’s rebound as investors looked past conflicting signals from Tehran and continued to bet that the Iran conflict may yet be contained. The S&P 500 gained 0.54%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.77%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 305 points, or 0.66%. Iran’s foreign minister told state media that senior officials were reviewing a US proposal to end the war, though Tehran had no intention of holding direct talks with Washington. Earlier in the day, Iranian media reported that the country would reject a US ceasefire offer and instead respond with a five-point proposal that would include Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. 
• Oil prices eased modestly as traders leaned toward a less disruptive outcome. US crude fell 2.2% to settle at $90.32 a barrel, while Brent declined 2.17% to $102.22. The major averages are now higher for the week after last week’s sharp selloff triggered by escalating Middle East tensions. Still, some strategists cautioned that markets may be growing too comfortable with the idea of a near-term resolution. A new Charles Schwab report suggests bitcoin is losing one of its defining traits, with volatility falling sharply as the asset matures, now even below some major US tech stocks. Still, despite calmer day-to-day swings, bitcoin remains prone to steep drawdowns, highlighting that while volatility is easing, risk has not disappeared. Investors now turn to Thursday’s initial jobless claims data for the week ended March 21, while in Asia, equities weakened and oil rebounded as Iran ruled out direct talks with the US even as it reviewed the latest proposal.

Record Stock Exposure Raises Red Flag for Future Returns

• A closely watched long-term market-timing gauge is flashing its most bearish signal on record, underscoring concerns about future equity returns. The indicator, the average US household allocation to equities, has climbed to 55.1% of portfolios, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest Financial Accounts data. That’s well above its long-term average of 36.3% and more than two standard deviations higher, marking the highest reading on record. Often referred to as the “Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Returns,” the measure is interpreted contrarily: higher equity exposure has historically been associated with weaker returns over the following decade. The relationship is unusually strong for a market indicator, with an R-squared of about 0.60, far above most widely followed signals. 
• The logic reflects typical market cycles. Institutional investors tend to accumulate equities early in a bull market and gradually distribute them to retail investors as valuations rise. By the time household allocations peak, markets are often nearing a turning point. While the signal is not designed to time short-term moves, its track record suggests that elevated readings have coincided with subdued inflation-adjusted returns over the next 10 years. The bearish message is reinforced by other valuation metrics. A basket of 10 long-term indicators shows similarly stretched conditions, with current readings more negative than roughly 94% of historical observations on average. Taken together, the data point to a market that may be pricing in optimism that could prove difficult to sustain over the longer horizon.

Stocks on the move:

• MillerKnoll (MLKN): Shares of the furniture maker fell 17% after fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings came in at 43 cents a share on revenue of $926.6 million. Adjusted profit declined 2% from a year earlier, while revenue rose 6%. The company also warned of an $8 million to $9 million fourth-quarter hit tied to the Middle East conflict, citing reduced shipments to the region and higher logistics costs.
• Karman (KRMN): Shares were little changed after the aerospace and defense company reported fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 11 cents a share, missing the 12-cent estimate compiled by FactSet. Revenue, however, beat expectations, coming in at $134.5 million versus the $132.6 million consensus.
• Celcuity (CELC): The biotech stock slipped 2% after the company posted a fourth-quarter loss of 97 cents a share, narrower than the $1.04 loss analysts had expected, according to FactSet. Research and development expense of $37.6 million was in line with forecasts.
• Worthington Steel (WS): Shares tumbled about 15% after the steel processor reported fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings of 27 cents a share, down from 35 cents in the same period a year earlier.

Watchlist: CRCL, ARM, SMCI, MSFT, CMC, PONY, JEF, KRMN, COIN

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Unemployment Claims
10:30 am: USD Natural Gas Inventories
04:00 pm: USD FOMC Member Cook Speaks


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): Commercial Metals (CMC), Pony AI (PONY)

AMC (After Market Close): Argan (AGX), USA Rare Earth (USAR)



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!