Geopolitical Risk Builds Across Global Markets 25/03/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• US stocks edged lower on Tuesday, giving back part of the previous session’s rally as oil prices climbed and the Iran conflict entered its fourth week. The S&P 500 slipped 0.37%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 84 points, or 0.18%. The Nasdaq Composite underperformed, dropping 0.84% to 21,761.89. President Donald Trump said the US is “in negotiations right now” with Iran and that “the other side… would like to make a deal.” The comments followed his statement Monday that talks had been “very good and productive,” which helped lift major indexes more than 1% in the prior session. Iranian state media has denied any direct discussions. 
• Mixed signals have left investors uncertain about the prospects for de-escalation. Israel and Iran have continued exchanging strikes, according to Israeli authorities, while the Pentagon is reportedly preparing to deploy about 3,000 additional troops to the region, though no decision has been made on ground operations in Iran. Oil resumed its advance after Monday’s sharp drop. Brent crude rose 4.55% to settle at $104.49 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 4.79% to $92.35. Energy was the S&P 500’s top-performing sector on the day, up 2%, and is now the only sector in positive territory month-to-date with gains exceeding 9%. Strategists said the lack of clarity is likely to keep markets range-bound. Terry Sandven of U.S. Bank Asset Management said uncertainty around Iran is driving choppy trading, adding that a break below 6,500 on the S&P 500 could open the door to further downside. There were some tentative signs of diplomacy, with Pakistan offering to help facilitate talks between the US and Iran.
   

Software Stocks Sink as AI Fears Roil Sector

• Software stocks slid sharply on Tuesday after Anthropic unveiled a new product update that revived investor fears that AI agents could displace parts of the traditional software stack. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), a closely watched proxy for the group, fell 3.8% in afternoon trading, pushing it back into negative territory for the month. The move added to a brutal year for the sector after the ETF dropped 14.6% in January and 9.7% in February, before a brief rebound in early March. The pressure followed Anthropic’s announcement Monday that its Claude agent can now use a customer’s computer to complete tasks, including opening files, browsing the web, running developer tools, and navigating a screen when needed. The release renewed concerns that AI agents could eventually weaken demand for some software seats and pressure long-term pricing power. 
• Mizuho analyst Daniel O’Regan said the selloff reflects both those fears and broader flow-driven pressure, with ETFs, basket trades, and custom indexes contributing to indiscriminate selling across the sector. Among the biggest decliners were Circle Internet Group (CRCL), SentinelOne (S), HubSpot (HUBS), and UiPath (PATH). Circle fell roughly 19%, while SentinelOne, HubSpot, and UiPath each lost more than 8%. Other names, including Atlassian (TEAM), Rapid7 (RPD), Tenable (TENB), Intapp (INTA), MARA Holdings (MARA), and Zeta Global (ZETA), were down about 7% to 8%. The drop left IGV down 23.1% this year, compared with a 5.3% decline for the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) and a 4% drop for the S&P 500.

Stocks on the move:

• Circle (CRCL): Shares of the stablecoin issuer plunged about 19% after rival Tether said it had engaged an unnamed Big Four accounting firm to audit the reserves backing USDT.
• SAP (SAP): The software company fell 4% after JPMorgan cut its rating to neutral from overweight and lowered its price target to €175 from €260. Analyst Toby Ogg said SAP’s cloud backlog is likely to decelerate further as its migration base matures, making a reacceleration harder to justify.
• Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI): Shares jumped 14% after the optical-components maker said it received a new order from a major hyperscale customer for 800G data-center transceivers. Optical peers Corning (GLW) and Lumentum (LITE) each rose about 9%.
• Netgear (NTGR): The San Jose-based maker of Wi-Fi routers and network switches surged 16% after the Federal Communications Commission banned imports of consumer routers made abroad, citing national-security concerns.
• Jefferies Financial Group (JEF): Shares gained nearly 3% after the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is considering a possible takeover of the investment bank. CNBC later reported, citing sources, that Jefferies is not interested in a sale.

Watchlist: CRCL, MARA, MSFT, COIN, NVDA, PDD, PAYX, CHWY

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Import Prices
10:30 am: USD Crude Oil Inventories
04:10 pm: USD FOMC Member Miran Speaks


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): PDD Holdings (PDD), Paychex (PAYX), Chewy INC. (CHWY)

AMC (After Market Close): Jeffries Financial Group (JEF), JBS N. V. (JBS)

 

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!