S&P 500 at Record, NFP in Focus 05/09/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The S&P 500 ended at a new all-time high after a late-day rally pushed stocks firmly into positive territory, as investors brushed aside disappointing private payroll figures released earlier in the session. Attention now turns to a major jobs report set for Friday, with traders hoping for numbers strong enough to support the case for rate cuts, but not so weak that they stoke fears of an impending recession. 
• The broad-market S&P 500 climbed 0.83%, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.98%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.77%.  Bets on a September 17th cut strengthened, with CME Group’s FedWatch tool showing fed funds futures pricing in a 97% probability of lower rates. Meanwhile, Broadcom shares surged more than 4% in extended trading Thursday, after the chipmaker posted stronger-than-anticipated third-quarter earnings and offered an upbeat forecast.

Fed Chair Race heats up

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will begin interviewing the Trump administration’s 11 candidates for Federal Reserve chair on Friday, with talks extending into next week. Top contenders include former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, Trump adviser Kevin Hassett, and current Fed governor Christopher Waller. Others under consideration are Fed officials Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, and Lorie Logan, as well as former Fed figures Larry Lindsey and James Bullard, along with Marc Sumerlin, Rick Rieder of BlackRock, and David Zervos of Jefferies.
•  Analysts note the public nature of the process mirrors Trump’s hiring style from The Apprentice, but warn it raises concerns about the Fed’s independence. “It will be almost impossible for whoever is chosen to convince markets they’re not taking orders from the White House,” said former Fed vice chair Alan Blinder. The decision is critical, said GWU’s Sarah Binder, because the Fed “sets the cost of money,” which in turn shapes mortgages, car loans, business investment, and overall economic well-being.

Stocks on the move:

• Broadcom (AVGO), often referred to as a successor to the “Mag 7,” reported a 63% surge in AI-related revenue after the close of trading on Thursday. Shares rose 4% as the chip giant reported $15.95B in sales, topping forecasts of $15.84B. The company also raised its outlook for the current quarter, exceeding Wall Street expectations.
• Lululemon (LULU) tumbled 15% despite beating on EPS and gross margins, after the athleisure retailer slashed full-year profit guidance to $12.77–$12.97, down from a prior range of $14.58–$14.78.
• DocuSign (DOCU) advanced 7% following its results, with earnings surpassing estimates and revenue reaching $800M. CEO Allan Thygesen highlighted that the company’s AI-driven tools are boosting profitability.

Watchlist: AVGO, DOCU, LULU, FIG, CRM, AMZN, META

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific equities advanced Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order lowering Japanese auto import tariffs to 15% from 27.5% and confirming $550 billion in Japanese investment commitments in U.S. projects. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.39%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.17%, while China’s CSI 300 ended flat.
• In the U.S., stock futures were little changed Thursday ahead of the closely watched August nonfarm payrolls report. Dow futures ticked up 4 points (0.01%), S&P 500 futures edged higher by 0.09%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2%. “Today’s jobs report will be the deciding factor,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade, formerly of Morgan Stanley. He noted that while softer labor data could support expectations for a Fed rate cut, overly weak numbers may fuel concerns about economic stability.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin held steady on Thursday as traders awaited the release of the U.S. jobs report on Friday, a key data point that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this month.
• The cryptocurrency was little changed over 24 hours, recovering earlier losses to trade near $111,100, according to CoinGecko. Daily trading volume slipped 8.77% to $57.75 billion at the time of writing.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99 000-125 000, Ethereum: 4000-4980, Solana: 160-214
   

Forex

• EUR/USD edged higher on Friday, trading near 1.1670 in Asia, as the Euro gained support from cautious ECB policy expectations and steady growth projections. Eurozone Q2 GDP is forecast at 1.4% YoY and 0.1% QoQ, unchanged from prior readings. Meanwhile, U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by about 75,000 in August, with unemployment at 4.3%.
• The Japanese Yen (JPY) also advanced, buoyed by upbeat local data. Real wages turned positive for the first time in seven months, and household spending increased in July, reinforcing bets that the Bank of Japan will continue policy normalization. Combined with firm demand for safe havens and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, USD/JPY slipped toward the 148.00 level.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1700, USD/JPY: 140-151

Basic Materials

• Gold (XAU/USD) extended gains in Asian trading on Friday, supported by Fed rate-cut expectations that weighed on the U.S. Dollar and by ongoing trade-related uncertainty. The metal held near $3,500, just below its record high earlier this week, as traders awaited the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for fresh direction.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped to around $62.95, pressured by a surprise build in U.S. inventories and speculation that OPEC+ may raise output targets at its meeting on Sunday.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600-3650, US Oil: 55.60-75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Non Farm Employment Change
08:30 am: USD Unemployment Claims


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open):

ABM                ABM Industries Inc.
AMC (After Market Close): Enjoy your weekend!



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!