S&P hits record, Nvidia skips China AI Event 29/07/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both notched fresh all-time intraday and closing highs during Monday’s session, although gains were minimal. This marked the 15th record close of the year for the broader index. The S&P 500 ended the day marginally above break-even, while the 30-stock Dow slipped 0.1%. In contrast, the Nasdaq closed 0.3% higher, boosted in part by optimism surrounding the new EU–U.S. trade agreement.
• Tariffs and inflation are expected to remain key themes throughout the week. With the trade deal now priced in, markets are eyeing new potential catalysts—possibly a rate cut or major earnings from the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants. If earnings bring no major surprises and the Federal Reserve offers a dovish tone, we could see markets push to even higher record levels before the week wraps up. Furthermore, upcoming labor market data will also play a crucial role in shaping investor sentiment.

Nvidia Missing at China’s Top AI Expo

• Just weeks after CEO Jensen Huang’s high-profile visit to China, Nvidia was notably absent from the World AI Conference in Shanghai, despite renewed U.S. approval to sell its H20 chips. In sharp contrast, Huawei took center stage with a massive booth, unveiling its new Atlas 900 A3 SuperPoD, powered by 384 Ascend chips, aimed at rivaling Nvidia's dominance in AI computing.
• Other Chinese firms, such as Moore Threads, Yunsilicon, Tencent, and Alibaba, showcased AI solutions with far less dependence on Nvidia technology, signaling China’s accelerating push for tech self-sufficiency. Beijing also unveiled plans for a global AI cooperation body headquartered in Shanghai, highlighting its ambitions to shape AI governance. Nvidia’s absence raises questions about its long-term position in the Chinese market amid tightening U.S. export controls.

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Stocks on the move:

• Cadence Design Systems (CDNS): Shares of the software firm surged over 6% after reporting quarterly results that exceeded both revenue and earnings forecasts.
• Nucor (NUE): The steelmaker’s stock declined more than 4% following second-quarter earnings and sales that came in below analysts’ expectations. Nucor reported adjusted earnings of $2.60 per share on $8.46 billion in revenue, missing the consensus estimates of $2.66 per share and $8.54 billion, per LSEG.
• Rambus (RMBS): The semiconductor company saw its shares climb over 5% after posting second-quarter earnings of 53 cents per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of more than 60%.
• Tilray Brands (TLRY): The cannabis-focused consumer goods company gained more than 2% as fiscal fourth-quarter earnings topped analyst projections.

Watchlist: PG, UNH, BA, AZN, SPOT, MRK, COIN, NVDA, CDNS,

Today’s action

• Asian markets declined on Tuesday as investors closely monitored the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.61%, while the Topix dropped 0.76%. South Korea’s Kospi shed 1.09%, and the Kosdaq lost 0.88%. Meanwhile, Singapore Airlines saw its shares plunge after reporting a 59% drop in first-quarter earnings, despite a prior 240% surge over the year, according to reports. In a notable shift, India has now surpassed China in smartphone exports to the U.S., driven by a sharp rise in manufacturing activity.
• U.S. stock futures were relatively flat in early Monday trading. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up around 0.1%, while Dow futures added just 6 points. This comes after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite managed to notch fresh records, even as the broader rally lost momentum. This week is packed with major catalysts: over 150 S&P 500 companies, including several from the “Magnificent Seven,” are set to report earnings. On the data front, key U.S. labor market indicators will be released, including JOLTS on Tuesday, ADP payrolls on Wednesday, and jobless claims on Thursday.

Bitcoin

• Ray Dalio suggests investors allocate 15% to Bitcoin and gold amid U.S. debt concerns. PayPal launches a new crypto checkout tool for U.S. merchants, now supporting 100+ tokens. Monero (XMR) faces a potential hashrate takeover by Qubic, a network led by IOTA’s co-founder, sparking concerns about centralization.
• Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $118,757, repeatedly testing the $ 120,000 resistance, which hints at a potential breakout. Most altcoins hold support despite mild selling pressure.
  Watchlist: BTC: 99,000–123,000 | ETH: 3,000–3,800 | SOL: 200–260

Forex

• The USD/JPY pair edged lower to 148.35 in Tuesday’s late Asian session, easing after a three-day winning streak. Despite the dip, the pair’s outlook remains strong as the U.S. Dollar gains support from a new U.S.-EU trade agreement. 
• The deal, which includes 15% tariffs on most European goods, has also weighed on EUR/USD, which is holding near 1.1590 after falling over 1% in the previous session. France criticized the agreement, calling it a "dark day" for Europe, thereby adding to the already existing political tension. Traders now turn their attention to upcoming monetary policy decisions from both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, which could drive further volatility in major currency pairs.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.1000–1.1850 | USD/JPY: 140–162

Basic Materials

• WTI crude dipped slightly during Tuesday’s Asian session, trading just below $66.50, trimming some of Monday’s strong gains to a one-week high. Persistent U.S. Dollar strength is weighing on oil, although trade optimism and Trump’s warning of broader Russia sanctions are helping to limit the downside.
• Meanwhile, gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near a three-week low after Monday’s sharp drop. Prices are holding above $3,300, as traders stay cautious ahead of the FOMC policy decision. The Dollar’s recent rally has pressured the metal, though momentum paused slightly in early trading.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,500 | US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Economic Calendar (EST):

09:00 am: HPI
10:00 am: JOLTS Job Openings
10:00 am:  CB Leading Index


Earnings:

PG               Procter & Gamble
UNH             United Health Inc.
AZN              Astrazeneca Plc
MRK             Merck & Company
BA                Boeing
SPOT           Spotify Tech.

AMC (After Market Close): V, BKNG, SBUX


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!