Fresh Highs ahead: Can the S&P 500 Keep Climbing? 27/06/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• Wall Street extended its rally on Thursday, with the S&P 500 briefly hitting a fresh ATH record, lifted by tech strength and easing inflation fears. The S&P gained 0.82%, the Nasdaq advanced 1.02%, and the Dow climbed 0.74%, or 285 points. A continued decline in oil prices helped alleviate inflationary pressures, while Treasury yields moved lower for a second consecutive session. The dollar softened, boosting appetite for risk assets. Growth stocks outperformed, led by semiconductor and AI-linked names, while defensive stocks lagged. 

• In Washington, political attention turned to a sweeping economic bill, now advancing through the Senate ahead of a self-imposed July 4 deadline from the White House. Meanwhile, final GDP data for Q1 showed a surprise 0.5% contraction—raising new concerns about underlying economic momentum. Eyes now turn to Friday’s PCE inflation print, which could reinforce bets on Fed rate cuts later this year. A cooler reading may set the stage for a strong weekly close at record highs.

Fresh Highs ahead: Can the S&P 500 Keep Climbing?

• The S&P 500 briefly traded above its previous February record on Thursday, before settling slightly lower into the close. Tech names powered the move, as AI enthusiasm and lower bond yields sparked renewed appetite for growth stocks. The Nasdaq 100 has now surged nearly 30% since April lows, driven by semiconductors and megacap software plays. Analysts point to declining oil prices, a softer dollar, and receding trade tensions as key macro tailwinds for equities.
• Market participants are closely watching today’s PCE inflation report, along with developments on U.S.–China trade negotiations. A benign inflation print or signs of tariff easing could trigger a decisive breakout into uncharted territory.
   

Stocks on the move:

• Carvana (CVNA): The used car retailer soared 12% as the company unveiled a new AI-enhanced pricing tool and raised guidance for Q2 revenue. The stock has more than doubled since January.

• Nike (NKE): Shares dipped 2% despite beating analysts’ expectations on both revenue and earnings in the fiscal fourth quarter. The decline followed a 12% year-over-year drop in quarterly sales, which weighed on investor sentiment.
• Core Scientific (CORZ): Shares edged up 1%, extending Thursday’s 33% surge. The rally followed reports that AI infrastructure provider CoreWeave is in discussions to acquire the company.
• Concentrix (CNXC): The tech and customer experience company sank 9% after reporting adjusted Q2 earnings of $2.70 per share, missing the $2.75 consensus estimate. Revenue, however, came in strong at $2.42 billion, topping forecasts of $2.38 billion.

Watchlist: MU, CVNA, ZI, CVX, NKE, AMD, META, NVDA, TSLA

Today’s action

• Asian equities traded mixed early Friday following Wall Street’s record-setting session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.47%, while South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.19%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.22%, lifted by consumer tech stocks. China's factory profits tumble 9.1% in the biggest monthly decline in seven months.
• U.S. stock futures were flat to slightly higher in early trading. Dow futures inched up 22 points, S&P 500 futures were up 0.12%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.21%. Oil prices held steady above $67, while treasury yields remained under pressure. Traders are bracing for May’s PCE inflation report, a key input for Fed policy decisions. A weaker-than-expected print could support the soft landing narrative and reinforce bullish momentum into the weekend.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin hovered near $107,400 on Thursday, maintaining recent gains amid subdued volatility. The digital asset has rebounded nearly 9% this week, as geopolitical tensions eased and risk sentiment returned across global markets. 
• Ethereum (ETH) traded above $2,460, while altcoins like Avalanche (AVAX), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Polkadot (DOT) posted gains of 4–6%. ETF inflows and steady institutional interest continue to provide a tailwind for the broader crypto market. Technical analysts note BTC is approaching a key resistance level near $109,000, with a potential breakout setting the stage for a push toward $112,000 if macro data cooperates.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99,000–112,000, Ethereum: 1500–2800, Solana: 80–183

Forex

• EUR/USD hovered near 1.1660 on Friday, underpinned by persistent U.S. dollar weakness and declining bond yields. The pair is trading well above its 20-day EMA, with upside potential toward the 1.1700 level.
• USD/JPY slipped to 146.40, pressured by softer U.S. data and reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar. Traders await Japan’s CPI release for clues on BoJ’s next move. Market focus remains on U.S. inflation figures later today, which could swing rate expectations and drive volatility across major pairs.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700–1.1680, USD/JPY: 140–151

Basic Materials

• Oil prices stabilized on Friday following a steep midweek selloff. WTI crude traded around $67.30, while Brent hovered near $70.20. Traders cited oversold conditions and position adjustments ahead of the weekend as drivers of the bounce.
• Gold (XAU/USD) traded near $3,385, supported by falling yields and dollar weakness. The metal remains well-bid as investors hedge ahead of today’s PCE data and any fresh geopolitical headlines. Commodity markets are expected to remain sensitive to inflation data and macro policy commentary heading into next week.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600–3500, US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
08:30 am: USD Core PCE Price Index (m/m)
08:30 am: USD Personal Income & Spending
09:15 am: USD FOMC Member Cook Speaks
10:00 am: USD Consumer Sentiment
10:00 am: USD Inflation Expectations
 

Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens):
APOG     Apogee Enterprises
AMC (After the US Market closes): Enjoy your weekend!

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!