Symbolic Iran Strike sends Oil lower 24/06/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• Wall Street rebounded sharply on Monday as geopolitical fears eased following a restrained response from Iran. The S&P 500 jumped 1.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.94%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.88%, or 372 points. Markets were initially rattled by Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks on U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq over the weekend.
• However, news that all missiles were intercepted with no damage or casualties helped shift sentiment. Analysts said the limited response lowered the odds of wider conflict. Oil prices plunged over 7% in response, easing inflation concerns and supporting risk assets. Investors also took comfort in dovish commentary from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who left the door open for potential rate cuts this summer. Treasury yields declined, and tech stocks led gains, reversing last week’s downtrend.

Symbolic Iran Strike sends Oil lower

• Iran launched a wave of missiles toward U.S. military facilities in Qatar and Iraq, which were all successfully intercepted—causing no reported casualties or damage. The market interpreted the move as a face-saving gesture rather than the start of a major conflict. WTI crude tumbled 7.2% to $68.51 per barrel, while Brent fell to $71.48, marking their largest one-day declines since May. Analysts said the absence of escalation reduced the so-called “war premium” built into oil prices last week.
• Equities responded positively to the de-escalation, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all closing higher. “The attack was symbolic. This is Iran saying it has responded without pushing the U.S. into further action,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. Markets now anticipate a cooling of tensions and possible backchannel diplomacy.

Stocks on the move:

• Micron (MU): Shares rose 3.2% after the chipmaker received a favorable analyst upgrade citing stronger DRAM pricing and easing export concerns. Analysts at Bernstein now rate the stock "Outperform" with a $160 target.
• Tesla (TSLA): The stock jumped 5% after Reuters reported the company plans to roll out a new self-driving subscription model in Q3. CEO Elon Musk teased “big AI surprises” in an upcoming update.
• Coinbase (COIN):  Shares added 7.5% as Bitcoin rebounded above $105,000 following a weekend dip. The broader crypto rally helped drive sentiment across digital asset platforms.
• Chevron (CVX):  The oil major slipped 2.8%, leading energy sector losses, after crude prices posted their steepest drop in over a month. Investors rotated out of oil producers and into growth tech names.

                                   Watchlist: MU, TSLA, COIN, CVX, MSFT, GOOGL, META, LMT, CRCL

Today’s action

• Asian markets traded higher on Tuesday as fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East continued to fade. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.55%, while South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.72%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 0.39%, buoyed by tech sector optimism.
• U.S. stock futures extended gains during Asian hours. Dow futures were up 96 points (0.2%), S&P 500 futures climbed 0.21%, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.33%. Oil prices remained under pressure as markets further unwound last week’s geopolitical risk premium. Investors are watching for upcoming U.S. consumer confidence data and comments from Fed officials, which could provide additional clues on the policy outlook. The recent cooling of crude prices may support equities if inflation expectations moderate further.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin rebounded strongly to trade near $106,000 on Monday, bouncing off weekend lows near $99,000 as geopolitical tensions showed signs of easing. The world’s largest cryptocurrency gained roughly 5% over 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) rose over 6% to around $2,345.
• Analysts say the rapid recovery reflects renewed investor appetite after Iran’s symbolic missile attack failed to escalate. Other altcoins, including Solana (SOL), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE), also saw 7–10% gains, reversing part of last week’s losses. Traders are now eyeing macro data and Fed commentary for the next major directional move in crypto markets.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99,000–112,000, Ethereum: 1500–2800, Solana: 80–183

Forex

• EUR/USD remained firm near 1.1610 on Tuesday, extending its rally as the dollar weakened across the board. The pair is trading above the 9-day EMA, with momentum indicators still bullish. Support sits near the 1.1530 zone.
• USD/JPY drifted slightly lower to around 146.75 amid broad risk-on sentiment. Investors are reassessing safe-haven demand following the weekend’s de-escalation in the Middle East. Japanese CPI due later this week could shift BoJ rate expectations again.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700–1.1650, USD/JPY: 140–151

Basic Materials

• Oil prices extended their selloff Tuesday after falling over 7% Monday. WTI crude traded around $68.60, pressured by signs of easing geopolitical tensions and fading fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Gold (XAU/USD) hovered just below $3,380 as traders balanced easing Middle East concerns against continued Fed uncertainty. While risk appetite improved, gold held firm amid lingering inflationary pressures and soft Treasury yields.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600–3500, US Oil: 55.60–75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
10:00 am: USD Consumer Confidence
10:00 am: USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
10:00 am: USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
12:30 pm: USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
 

Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens):
SNX        T D Synnex Corp
AMC (After the US Market closes): FDX, CCL, WOR

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!