Big week ahead: Earnings, data or tariffs will dominate? 28/04/2025

HOT stories for today
 

US market wrap:
 

• Stocks rallied for a fourth consecutive session, as investors celebrated another week of corporate earnings. Major indexes have bounced back 4–6% from the slump triggered by widespread tariffs, while tech giants reminded markets that trade concerns aren’t the only game in town. So far this month, the S&P 500 has slipped 1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is poised for a 4.5% loss, and the Nasdaq Composite has managed a modest 0.5% gain.
• The S&P 500 briefly dipped into bear market territory on April 7 but has since clawed back some ground — though it continues to struggle against key technical resistance levels. Corporate earnings have shown moderate strength this quarter, with 73% of companies exceeding Wall Street expectations, slightly below the five-year average of 77%, according to FactSet. Looking ahead, trade negotiations are likely to command the spotlight during a pivotal week for "Magnificent Seven" earnings and critical jobs data.

Big week ahead: Earnings, data or tariffs will dominate?

• Markets wrapped a shortened week with a cautious lift, buoyed by hints of thawing US-China trade tensions after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent flagged current tariffs as unsustainable and President Trump teased progress—claims quickly contradicted by Chinese officials, keeping uncertainty alive. This week, investors face a critical test as a flood of tier-1 US data hits: Friday’s non-farm payrolls are expected to show a cooling labor market with 120,000 jobs added, while Wednesday’s GDP report is projected to reveal a sharp slowdown to 0.4% growth, underscoring the early toll of tariffs. Inflation data is also on deck, with softer numbers likely giving the Fed room to stay patient on rate cuts.
• Meanwhile, Treasury yields drifted lower, the dollar clawed back ground, and safe-haven demand faded—setting the stage for a volatile week ahead as markets juggle trade headlines, corporate earnings, and the health of the world’s largest economy.
   

Stocks on the move:

• Tesla (TSLA) — Shares of the electric vehicle giant, led by Elon Musk, rallied 10%. The stock has now climbed over 17% this week as the broader market works to rebound from a sharp April sell-off.
• Intel (INTC) — The semiconductor manufacturer dropped 7% after issuing a weaker-than-expected outlook for the current quarter. Intel projected midpoint revenue of $11.8 billion for the June quarter, falling short of the $12.82 billion consensus estimate from LSEG.
• Gilead Sciences (GILD) — The biopharma company slipped 2.5% after reporting first-quarter revenue of $6.67 billion, missing the $6.81 billion analysts had anticipated, according to LSEG.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) — Shares of Google's parent firm rose about 2% following stronger-than-forecast first-quarter earnings. Alphabet posted earnings per share of $2.81 on revenue of $90.23 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.01 EPS and $89.12 billion in revenue, per LSEG.
   

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets were muted Monday as investors weighed China’s latest pledge to boost its economy and ongoing U.S.-regional trade talks. China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an vowed to adopt “more proactive macroeconomic policies” to hit growth targets, with officials set to hold a press conference later today. Mainland China’s CSI 300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index were flat, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.37% and South Korea’s Kospi edged up 0.13%.
• In the U.S., stock futures slipped early Monday as Wall Street prepared for a busy stretch of corporate earnings and key economic releases. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 120 points, or 0.42%, while S&P 500 futures dipped 0.54%, and Nasdaq 100 futures retreated 0.63%. Although no major reports are due today, the week ahead will be packed with crucial labor market data, GDP figures, and earnings from tech heavyweights including Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN).

Watchlist: INTC, GOOGL, TSLA, META, MSFT, PLTR, AMZN, NVDA
 

Bitcoin
 

• Prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo shared a bullish Bitcoin (BTC) outlook on X, noting a major shift in market sentiment. “BTC fundamentals have turned bullish, not a bad setup to break all-time highs,” Woo said on April 27. Woo emphasized that both speculative and fundamental capital flows have bottomed and are now rising, creating a strong foundation for further gains. He pointed out that medium-term targets of $90K and $93K have already been surpassed, while new targets at $103K and $108K remain in play.
• “If capital flows continue, BTC is setting up for another break of all-time highs,” Woo added. While he acknowledged the potential for short-term pullbacks, he framed any dips as buying opportunities, highlighting a solid long-term setup fueled by growing liquidity and investor confidence.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 74 000-100 000, Ethereum:1500-2600, Solana: 80-150
   

Forex
 

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) edged higher on Monday, halting a nearly week-long slide from multi-month highs. Renewed safe-haven demand, fueled by mixed signals on US-China trade talks, supported the currency. Expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may pause further rate hikes could cap JPY gains, but broader BoJ-Fed policy divergence continues to favor the lower-yielding yen. Hopes for a potential US-Japan trade deal also offered additional support.
• EUR/USD traded flat near 1.1360 during Monday’s Asian session. The pair maintains a positive bias above the key 100-day EMA, supported by a bullish RSI. Immediate resistance lies at 1.1400, with initial support at 1.1315. The US Dollar steadied as traders digested conflicting signals over US-China trade relations, with progress claims from Washington countered by denials from Beijing.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1600, USD/JPY: 140-144
   

Basic Materials
 

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil came under mild pressure on Monday, slipping 0.50% to around $62.65 after failing to build on recent gains. Selling emerged near the $63.55 level during Asian trading, although bearish momentum remains limited. Trade uncertainties and OPEC+ plans to raise output forecasts are weighing on prices, though ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to provide a risk premium that could cap deeper losses.
• Gold (XAU/USD) fell toward the $3,267 level early Monday, pressured by renewed US-China trade deal optimism and a stronger US dollar. A decline in China’s gold consumption during Q1 2025 further dampened demand for the metal. While Fed rate cut bets and lingering trade uncertainties warrant caution, near-term sentiment for gold remains tilted to the downside.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2600-3500, US Oil: 57.00-70.00

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
Nothing

Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens)
FMX           Formento Economico
ROP           Roper Technologies
AMC (After the US Market closes): WELL, WM, CDNS

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!