Tesla at a Crossroads 22/04/2025

HOT stories for today
 

US market wrap:
 

• Wall Street took a bruising hit Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump intensified his public criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, stoking fresh concerns about the central bank's autonomy. At the same time, a lack of breakthroughs in international trade negotiations further rattled investor nerves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 2.48%, while the S&P 500 slid 2.36%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite sank 2.55%, weighed down heavily by steep losses among the so-called "Magnificent Seven" technology giants. Tesla led the tech retreat, tumbling 5.8%, while chipmaker Nvidia slumped more than 4%. 
• Meanwhile, gold surged past $3,400 per ounce, setting a new record high as nervous investors sought refuge in the safe-haven asset amid mounting uncertainty. Adding to the market malaise was a noticeable absence of progress on trade diplomacy. Far from easing tensions, the geopolitical backdrop grew more fraught, with China issuing a stern warning to other nations against forging trade agreements with the United States that could undermine Beijing’s interests.
   

Tesla at a Crossroads
 

• Tesla faces a crucial earnings report this week, with its stock down over 40% year-to-date and investor confidence shaken. While earnings expectations are modest—43 cents per share on $21.45 billion in revenue—the real focus is on updates about a cheaper EV and the long-awaited robotaxi rollout. CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the politically charged DOGE initiative has sparked criticism, with analysts warning it’s distracting from Tesla’s core mission and damaging the brand. A recent stock bump tied to rumors of Musk stepping back from DOGE shows how eager the market is for a refocus.
• Meanwhile, Tesla has lost ground in key markets and reported a 13% drop in deliveries for Q1. Some, like Gene Munster, see 2025 as a write-off and expect a rebound in 2026 driven by AI and robotics. Rising tariffs, intensifying competition, and a murky growth outlook add pressure to Tuesday’s earnings call, which may be Musk’s best shot at resetting the narrative.
   

Stocks on the move:
 

• MongoDB [MDB] — Shares dipped 2% after the company announced that interim CFO Srdjan Tanjga will step down effective May 8. MongoDB expects to name a new chief financial officer within the next 7 to 10 days.
• Calix [CALX] — The tech services stock surged 14% following a first-quarter earnings beat and optimistic guidance for the current quarter.
• BOK Financial [BOKF] — Shares of the Oklahoma-based bank fell 3% after first-quarter earnings came in below expectations. The bank reported earnings of $1.86 per share, missing the $1.99 consensus estimate from analysts surveyed by FactSet.
• Zions Bancorporation [ZION] — The stock slipped nearly 6% after the Utah bank reported lower-than-anticipated first-quarter earnings. Zions posted EPS of $1.13, falling short of the $1.18 forecast from analysts polled by LSEG.
   

Today’s action
 

• Asia-Pacific markets traded cautiously Tuesday, mirroring Wall Street’s Monday sell-off after former President Donald Trump intensified his public pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix hovered flat, while South Korea’s Kospi edged up 0.19% and the Kosdaq gained 0.16%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.25%, and China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.17% at the open. 
• Despite Monday’s losses, U.S. stock futures rebounded early Tuesday. Dow Jones futures rose 149 points (0.39%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each climbed about 0.5%. Market sentiment remains fragile after Trump warned on Truth Social that economic growth could falter without Fed rate cuts. Investors await fresh manufacturing data from the Richmond Fed, along with speeches from key central bank officials, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. On the earnings front, Lockheed Martin reports ahead of the open, followed by Tesla’s highly anticipated results after the bell.

Watchlist: MDB, ZION, TSLA, CALX, GE, VZ, RTX, DHR, LMT, NVDA
 

Bitcoin
 

• As traditional markets buckled under the weight of escalating trade tensions, cryptocurrencies staged a notable rally Monday. Bitcoin surged to an intraday high of $88,527, closing the day up 2.61%, while a wave of investor optimism pushed several altcoins to even stronger gains. In total, the global crypto market cap rose 1.77%, adding approximately $75 billion and pushing the sector’s total valuation to $2.73 trillion by 5 p.m. Eastern.
• The bullish crypto momentum came as Wall Street faced a dramatic sell-off, with U.S. stocks losing a jaw-dropping $1.5 trillion in market value. Investors were rattled by former President Donald Trump’s intensifying trade war rhetoric and renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. As risk-off sentiment gripped equity markets, crypto appeared to reassert itself as a speculative hedge—or at least a temporary safe haven—in turbulent times.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 74 000-100 000, Ethereum: 1,500- 2,600, Solana: 80-150
   

Forex
 

• The Japanese Yen continued to strengthen in Asian trading Tuesday, buoyed by persistent safe-haven flows amid mounting trade tensions and a broadly weaker U.S. Dollar. The USD/JPY pair briefly dipped below the key 140.00 level, pressured by fears of a global recession tied to former President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff stance. Expectations of a potential Bank of Japan rate hike further supported the yen, while Trump’s perceived threats to Fed independence added to the dollar’s defensive posture near multi-year lows.
• Meanwhile, the euro extended its rally, with EUR/USD climbing to 1.1530 in early trade, marking its third consecutive day of gains. Technical momentum remains strong, though the 14-day RSI above 70 suggests overbought conditions and raises the risk of a short-term pullback. Immediate support is seen near 1.1400, the lower edge of the pair’s current ascending channel. If bullish momentum holds, traders are eyeing a potential retest of the 2020 high at 1.1573.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1160, USD/JPY: 140-143
   

Basic Materials
 

• Gold prices (XAU/USD) retreated slightly from a fresh all-time high near $3,500 on Tuesday, as overbought technical conditions prompted a modest pullback. Despite the dip, safe-haven demand remains robust, fueled by escalating trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and former President Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve. Analysts suggest any meaningful downside remains limited as investors continue to seek shelter amid fears of a global economic downturn.
• Meanwhile, WTI crude oil saw mild gains, rising just over 0.30% to trade around $62.85 during the Asian session. The move attracted light dip-buying, though upside momentum was capped by easing supply disruption concerns and persistent trade war anxiety. A weaker U.S. Dollar and elevated geopolitical risk premiums continue to offer some support for the commodity.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2600-3500, US Oil: 57.00-70.00

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
10:00 am: USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
01:40 pm: USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens)
GE                 GE Aerospace
VZ                  Verizon Comm.
RTX               RTX Corp.
DHR              Danaher Corp.
LMT               Lockheed Martin
AMC (After the US Market closes): TSLA, SAP, ISRG

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!