S&P 500 hits first Death Cross since 2022 15/04/2025

HOT stories for today

 

US market wrap:
 

• U.S. stocks rose modestly Monday, driven by a surge in tech shares after President Trump unexpectedly exempted smartphones, computers, and semiconductors from new tariffs, sending the Dow up 0.78% and the Nasdaq 0.64%. Apple climbed 2.2%, Dell jumped nearly 4%, and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) advanced close to 1% on renewed investor optimism.
• Still, concerns over slowing growth persisted as Citi strategist Scott Chronert lowered his S&P 500 year-end target to 5,800, citing weaker earnings forecasts and trade-related headwinds. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled that prolonged tariffs could force the central bank to cut interest rates, warning of pressure on consumer demand and business investment.
   

S&P 500 hits first Death Cross since 2022

• The S&P 500 notched a technical milestone Monday with its first “death cross” in over three years, even as stocks extended last week’s rebound. The index rose 0.79% on the day but closed with its 50-day moving average slipping below the 200-day average—a pattern often seen as a warning of a potential downtrend. Though the term sounds ominous, history suggests the implications are mixed. Data shows the index has typically traded higher three, six, and 12 months after past death crosses, despite near-term volatility.
• Paul Ciana of BofA Securities said the next key signal will be whether the 200-day average continues to decline—an indicator that could point to a retest of recent lows. On the other hand, Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson sees the death cross as a lagging signal, often followed by a “snapback” rally rather than deeper losses. Indeed, past outcomes have varied: the S&P 500 dropped a year after its March 2022 death cross, but soared 50% in the year following March 2020’s.

Stocks on the move: 
      

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — Shares advanced 4.6% after NATO confirmed the acquisition of Palantir’s Maven Smart System, an AI-powered combat intelligence platform.
• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) — The biotech stock soared 10.6% following news that Pfizer (PFE) is halting development of its daily weight-loss drug, danuglipron, after a liver injury was potentially linked to the treatment during clinical trials.
• Dell Technologies (DELL) — The stock gained around 4% after reports emerged over the weekend that certain tariffs on Chinese tech imports have been temporarily lifted.
• Intel (INTC) — The semiconductor giant saw its shares rise nearly 3% after announcing plans to divest its controlling interest in Altera to private equity firm Silver Lake, with the transaction expected to close in the second half of the year.
   

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets traded mostly higher Tuesday, taking cues from Wall Street’s tech-driven rally. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.08%, while the broader Topix gained 1.29%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.93%, and the Kosdaq added 0.29%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged up 0.16% in volatile trade, while China’s CSI 300 was little changed. 
• Investors are eyeing key U.S. economic updates, including March’s import and export price indexes and the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures slipped slightly, with Dow futures down 33 points (-0.08%), S&P 500 futures off 0.11%, and Nasdaq 100 futures easing 0.17%. Earnings season picks up pace Tuesday with major reports due from Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and PNC Financial (PNC) before the opening bell.

Watchlist: TSLA, AAPL, BAC, C, JNJ, PNC, NVDA, PLTR

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs suffered their third-largest weekly outflow of 2025, shedding $713 million last week, while Ether (ETH) ETFs extended their losing streak to seven consecutive weeks, posting $82.47 million in outflows.
• Despite the ETF pressure, Bitcoin is holding above key levels, trading between $84,969 and $85,171 in the last hour after a volatile session that ranged from $83,197 to $85,315. Daily volume stands at $30.74 billion, with a market cap of $1.68 trillion. Meanwhile, investor sentiment remains mixed. Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, renewed his warning about the weakening U.S. dollar, urging investors to turn to Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat devaluation.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 74 000-100 000, Ethereum:1500-2600, Solana: 80-150
   

Forex
 

• The EUR/USD pair edged lower for the second straight session on Tuesday, hovering near 1.1350 during Asian trading hours. The euro weakened as the U.S. Dollar (USD) steadied amid rising stagflation concerns, following Fed’s Raphael Bostic’s comment that the path to the 2% inflation target remains long. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday, adding further pressure on the euro.
• On the other side of the FX spectrum, the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains supported near recent multi-month highs against the USD. Although it gave up some gains in early Asian trade due to fading safe-haven demand, broader sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade tensions and looming Trump tariffs continues to boost the yen's appeal. Hopes for a potential U.S.-Japan trade agreement and diverging monetary policies between the Fed and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are also helping to limit USD/JPY upside.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1140, USD/JPY: 143-150
   

Basic Materials

• Gold prices have regained momentum as persistent uncertainty over U.S. tariffs bolsters safe-haven demand, while bets on aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2025 keep the dollar subdued and favor the XAU/USD pair. Following a modest pullback from record highs, gold attracted dip buyers and now trades comfortably above the $3,200 threshold during Tuesday's Asian session.
• The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, along with lingering concerns over President Trump's tariff policies, continues to support the bullion. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude remains stable at around $61.10 as Trump hinted at possible new tariff exemptions for the auto industry. These comments, combined with China's nearly 5% year-on-year surge in oil imports and subdued demand growth projections from OPEC+, are contributing to the current equilibrium in crude prices.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2600-3230, US Oil: 57.00-70.00

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
08:30 am: USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
08:30 am: USD Import Prices
09:30 am: USD CB Leading Index

Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens)
JNJ              Johnson & Johnson
BAC           Bank of America Corp.
C                Citigroup Inc.
PNC           PNC Financial Group Serv.
AMC (After the US Market closes): UAL, IBKR, OMC, JBHT


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!