Apple, Nvidia escape—For now 14/04/2025

HOT stories for today


 

US market wrap:
 

• Wall Street endured one of its most turbulent stretches in recent memory last week, as extreme swings rattled markets and sent the CBOE Volatility Index soaring past 50 on Thursday. Investors saw the S&P 500 notch a robust gain of over 5%, though it came on the heels of sharp reversals that erased much of Wednesday’s dramatic rally. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index surged 3%, and yields on the 10-year Treasury note spiked 11%, underscoring investor uncertainty. The chaos began with a stunning visual aid unveiled in the Rose Garden, reigniting trade war fears. While there was a brief pause in hostilities, the outlook for the second quarter remains grim.
• By Friday, sentiment soured once more as major banks released earnings with muted or cautious guidance, adding to the gloom. China retaliated with steep tariff hikes, lifting duties to 125%, and delivered a scathing rebuke by calling the U.S. a “joke,” signaling an end to reciprocal escalation. Now, all eyes are on the upcoming wave of corporate earnings, with the market bracing for another potentially pivotal week.
   

Apple, Nvidia escape—For now

• Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) caught a short-term break after the Biden administration—via late Friday guidance from U.S. Customs and Border Protection—exempted smartphones, laptops, semiconductors, and related tech components from a sweeping 145% “reciprocal” tariff on Chinese imports. However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made clear the exemptions aren’t permanent, suggesting these products may soon face more targeted tariffs as part of a broader effort to boost domestic chip manufacturing.
• President Trump deepened the uncertainty on Sunday, insisting there were no real exceptions and that these goods were merely reassigned to a different tariff “bucket.” Analysts say the back-and-forth has created massive confusion for the tech sector, disrupting planning and investor confidence. Still, some experts believe the exemptions could signal an opening for U.S.–China trade talks, though the path forward remains highly unpredictable.

Stocks on the move: 
      

• Apple (AAPL) — Shares of Apple climbed roughly 4%, bringing its week-to-date gain to around 5.2%, as the iPhone maker rebounded from earlier losses this month tied to escalating China tariff concerns. With mounting levies, analysts warn Apple may be compelled to hike iPhone prices in the U.S., given its heavy reliance on Chinese manufacturing.
• MicroStrategy (MSTR) — The bitcoin-linked firm surged 10.2% on Friday, mirroring gains in cryptocurrency markets as Bitcoin’s price rallied.
• Stellantis (STLA) — Stellantis stock slipped approximately 0.5% after the automaker reported a 9% year-over-year drop in global vehicle shipments for Q1, down to 1.2 million units, largely due to weakened North American production.
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — JPMorgan shares rose 4% after the bank posted stronger-than-expected Q1 revenue of $46.01 billion, beating LSEG estimates of $44.11 billion. CEO Jamie Dimon tempered the optimism, warning of “significant headwinds” for the U.S. economy.
   

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets advanced on Monday after President Donald Trump temporarily halted tariffs on certain consumer electronics, sparking renewed risk appetite. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 2.59%, with the tech-heavy Hang Seng Tech Index climbing 3.13%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.58%, while the broader Topix added 1.50%. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.88%, and the Kosdaq rallied 1.60%.
• U.S. stock futures also edged higher in early trading as investors digest Trump’s latest tariff shift. S&P 500 futures were up 0.86%, Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 1.31%, and Dow futures climbed 109 points, or 0.27%. Wall Street is now turning its focus to a pivotal week of earnings, with major reports on deck from Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C). Other high-profile names set to post results include Netflix (NFLX) and United Airlines (UAL).

Watchlist: TSLA, AAPL, JPM, NVDA, MTB, GS, PLTR

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin (BTC) staged an impressive comeback last week, climbing over 7% to trade around $84,712, signaling strong demand at lower levels. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggested on X that turmoil in the U.S. bond market could prompt more policy action, potentially pushing Bitcoin into an “up only mode.”
• Analytics firm Glassnode noted that BTC has built firm support near $79,000, with around 40,000 coins accumulated at that level. Technical analyst and Bollinger Bands creator John Bollinger also weighed in, stating Bitcoin appears to be forming a “classic Bollinger Band W bottom,” though he emphasized the need for confirmation. Traders are also eyeing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which is hovering below 100. A continued decline in the dollar could further strengthen Bitcoin’s rally. If BTC sustains its momentum above current levels, it could lift overall market sentiment—potentially fueling a rebound in select altcoins. So, which cryptocurrencies are likely to ride Bitcoin’s bullish wave?
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 74 000-100 000, Ethereum:1500-2600, Solana: 80-150
   

Forex
 

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to attract safe-haven flows as escalating US-China trade tensions weigh heavily on global sentiment. While the currency pared back some of its Asian session gains, it remains close to its strongest level since late September 2024 against a broadly weaker U.S. Dollar (USD). Hopes for a potential Japan-U.S. trade agreement and a widening policy gap between the dovish Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve are further supporting the lower-yielding Yen.
• Meanwhile, the euro slipped against the dollar despite the greenback’s overall weakness. The EUR/USD pair dipped to around 1.1360 in early Monday trading after two straight days of gains. The downturn reflects deepening investor unease over trade war fallout, with German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz warning that Trump’s policies could hasten a financial crisis. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also stressed that the economic outcome of the trade conflict depends on how quickly uncertainties are resolved.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1140, USD/JPY: 143-150
   

Basic Materials

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil came under fresh selling pressure Monday, sliding over 0.5% to around $60.65 as fears that the US-China trade war could erode global fuel demand weighed on sentiment. A surprise production increase from OPEC+ further capped gains, limiting upside for the commodity despite broader weakness in the U.S. Dollar and recession concerns supporting some downside protection.
• Meanwhile, gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating just below a new all-time high near $3,230, following a surge driven by safe-haven demand. Despite slightly overbought technical conditions, the bullion remains well-supported by a bearish USD, Fed rate cut bets, and lingering geopolitical uncertainty. President Trump’s 90-day pause on sweeping tariffs has done little to calm markets, with escalating trade tensions continuing to drive investors toward the safety of gold.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2600-3230, US Oil: 57.00-70.00

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
12:00 pm: USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
01:00 pm: USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks
01:00 pm: USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks

Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens)
GS              Goldman Sachs Group
MTB            M&T Bank Corp.
ALOT          AstroNova Inc.
AMC (After the US Market closes): FBK, KMTS, APLD

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!