Trump’s Liberation day: What to expect 02/04/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The S&P 500 edged higher Tuesday in a choppy session marked by uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s pending tariff rollout and fresh signs of economic weakness. The benchmark index rose 0.38% to finish at 5,633.07, while the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 0.87% gain, closing at 17,449.89. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped just 11.80 points, or 0.03%, to 41,989.96. Markets swung sharply throughout the day, mirroring Monday’s turbulence — the S&P 500 rose as much as 0.7% at one point before sliding nearly 1% at its session low.
• Consumer discretionary stocks stole the spotlight, with Tesla (TSLA) jumping 3.6% and Nike (NKE) climbing 2%. On the S&P 500 heatmap, 9 of 11 sectors finished in positive territory, led by consumer discretionary (+1.04%), while healthcare lagged behind with a 1.83% loss.

Trump’s Liberation day: What to expect

• President Donald Trump is set to unveil his long-awaited “reciprocal tariffs” plan on Wednesday—dubbed “Liberation Day”—with the new duties expected to take effect immediately. While initially described as tariffs that would match other countries’ import levies, the White House is now reportedly considering a 20% charge on most foreign goods and services. That’s well below some of the highest global tariffs—like India’s 70% duty on auto imports—but still enough to shake markets.
• The announcement comes at a delicate time for the U.S. economy, which is already grappling with sticky inflation, a cautious Fed, and rising recession risks. Although investors initially took some comfort in the possibility of a less aggressive rollout, many remain wary. The lack of concrete details has kept Wall Street on edge, as Trump’s unpredictability leaves the door open for a harsher set of measures than expected.
• Sector-specific tariffs—possibly targeting industries like autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors—are still in play, depending on how trade partners respond. With uncertainty being one of Trump’s favorite negotiation tools, the full scope of “Liberation Day” could evolve quickly—and dramatically.

Stocks on the move:

• Roblox (RBLX) — Shares jumped 5% after the gaming platform revealed a collaboration with Google to expand immersive advertising through new rewarded video ads that grant in-game perks to users.
• On Holding (ONON) — The athletic footwear company dipped 3% after disclosing plans to shift to a single-CEO leadership model.
• Progress Software (PRGS) — Stock surged 12% following stronger-than-expected fiscal Q1 results, with adjusted earnings of $1.31 per share, surpassing the $1.06 estimate from LSEG analysts.
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA) — The beauty retailer rose 2% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from neutral to buy, citing growth potential.
• Tesla (TSLA) — The electric vehicle giant climbed 4% ahead of its Q1 delivery report set to be released Wednesday.
   

Today’s action:

• Asian markets showed mixed signals on Wednesday as global investors braced for the long-anticipated rollout of fresh U.S. tariffs by President Donald Trump. The move, expected later today, has stirred caution across equities, with traders eyeing potential global trade disruptions and their economic ripple effects. Japan’s Nikkei 225 inched up 0.10%, while the broader Topix fell 0.55%, reflecting a cautious stance among local investors. In China, the CSI 300 edged 0.15% higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index remained flat, underlining regional indecision ahead of key policy developments from Washington.
• Overnight, Wall Street posted mixed results. The S&P 500 added 0.38% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.87% driven by strength in tech stocks. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped modestly by 11.80 points to 41,989.96. Investors now turn their attention to two major catalysts: Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” announcement—expected to be sweeping in scope—and the ADP Non-Farm Employment report, which will provide a key pulse check on labor market health. Together, these could set the tone for the remainder of the week.

Watchlist: ULTA, JNJ, NVDA, TSLA, ONON, RBLX, BABA

Bitcoin:

• Despite Bitcoin (BTC) posting a 2.2% gain on April 1 to around $84,069, the cryptocurrency hasn’t crossed the $89,000 threshold since March 7. While recent price softness has been partly blamed on mounting U.S.-led global trade tensions, several headwinds were already dampening sentiment before President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement.
• Some argue that Strategy’s $5.25 billion in BTC purchases since February helped maintain support above $80,000. However, regardless of the buyer, Bitcoin’s upward momentum was already fading well before Trump’s January 21 announcement of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. In truth, the weakness in BTC reflects a combination of overinflated expectations around U.S. Treasury Bitcoin accumulation, softer inflation prompting potential rate cuts, and broader risk-off sentiment as investors shift toward short-term government bonds. The trade war has added pressure, but Bitcoin’s fragility predated it.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 78,000–100,000,  Ethereum: 1,900–2,900,  Solana: 140–220
   

Forex:

• The Japanese Yen drifted lower in Wednesday’s Asian session, with USD/JPY inching toward the 150.00 mark as traders grew anxious about the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement. Concerns that Japanese exports could be targeted pressured the JPY, though divergent policy expectations between the Fed and the Bank of Japan may help limit deeper losses.
• Meanwhile, EUR/USD hovered near 1.0800 as investors largely ignored economic data, awaiting clarity on Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan set to be unveiled later today. Uncertainty around the scope and timing of the tariffs has kept currency markets in a holding pattern.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700–1.0950, USD/JPY: 148–151
   

Commodities 
 

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil edged higher to around $70.95 during Wednesday’s early Asian session, supported by renewed supply concerns. The uptick follows remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump, who warned of oil tariffs against Russia should Moscow attempt to obstruct peace efforts in Ukraine. However, gains may be capped as traders brace for the announcement of new reciprocal tariffs later today. Adding to the mixed outlook, U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.037 million barrels last week, according to API data, tempering bullish sentiment.
• Gold (XAU/USD) pulled back slightly after earlier gains, trading just above the $3,100 mark in the Asian session. The retreat comes as investors reposition ahead of Trump’s highly anticipated tariff update. A steady risk tone in equity markets and overbought signals on the daily chart have limited upside momentum. Nonetheless, dovish Fed expectations, a softening U.S. dollar, and intensifying trade tensions continue to underpin safe-haven demand for the yellow metal.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,130, WTI Crude: 65.00–79.00

Key Economic Events Today (EST):
08:15 am: USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
10:00 am: USD Factory Orders
10:30 am: USD Crude Oil Inventories
Tentative: USD President Trump Speaks

Earnings Calendar:

Before Market Open: 
UNF            Unifirst Corp
BB               Blackberry Limited
CGNT         Cognyte Software Ltd.
After Market Close: RH, PENG, FC

The TEFS Analyst Team wishes you a successful trading day!