Global stocks take the lead 01/04/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• U.S. equities kicked off the second quarter with solid gains on Monday, rebounding after Friday’s selloff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 240 points (+0.61%), the S&P 500 advanced 0.76%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.12%, led by a tech sector bounce. Traders appeared to shake off last week’s hot PCE data, turning their focus to upcoming jobs and inflation reports for new direction.
• Strength in tech and consumer discretionary stocks helped drive Monday’s gains, while traders continued to assess the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs, expected to be detailed on Wednesday. Despite lingering inflation and trade concerns, Monday’s rally offered a positive start to April, historically a strong month for equities.

Global stocks take the lead

• In the first quarter of 2025, global equities outshined U.S. markets, with the MSCI All-Country World Index (excluding the U.S.) outperforming the S&P 500—raising fresh questions about the durability of America’s long-standing market leadership. European and emerging markets drew investor interest as U.S. stocks faced mounting headwinds: high valuations, stubborn inflation, and rising fiscal uncertainty. The delay in expected Fed rate cuts, ongoing trade policy risks, and a potential earnings slowdown have all weighed on sentiment.
• Meanwhile, global central banks are navigating easing cycles at different paces, and investors are starting to rebalance their portfolios toward more geographically diverse opportunities. While U.S. tech still offers unmatched innovation and scale, the shift suggests that the era of unquestioned American outperformance may be entering a more nuanced phase—where international equities have a growing role in portfolios once again.

Stocks on the move:

• Tesla (TSLA) — Shares of the EV giant dipped over 1% after Stifel reduced its price target, citing delays in the rollout of the updated Model Y and recent public demonstrations as potential short-term headwinds for demand.
• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — The data analytics and defense-focused firm declined 1.7%, marking its fifth consecutive session in the red, after falling more than 5% last week.
• Celsius Holdings (CELH) — The beverage company surged nearly 6% following an upgrade from Truist, which lifted its rating to buy from hold. The firm noted that investors are now pricing in long-term gains from the Alani Nu acquisition despite near-term headwinds.
• CoreWeave (CRWE) — The cloud services firm dropped over 7% in its second session post-IPO. The company, known for leasing Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs to major tech clients, continued to struggle after a weak market debut; Nvidia shares also slid more than 4% on Monday.

Today’s action:

• Asia-Pacific markets were mixed overnight. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 3.86% amid renewed tariff concerns and tech weakness. China’s CSI 300 fell 0.99%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dipped 1.46%.
• U.S. stock futures edged lower early Tuesday as investors awaited further details from President Donald Trump on the upcoming tariff policy rollout. Dow futures declined by 112 points (-0.27%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.36% and 0.41%, respectively. Market participants are also eyeing key economic releases today, including March manufacturing PMI, February job openings, and construction spending data.

Watchlist: MRNA, CELH, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, COIN, MSFT, META

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $81,600 on Monday evening, maintaining stability after last week’s 4.2% loss. Ethereum (ETH) hovered near $2,900, still down nearly 10% on the week, while XRP extended losses beyond 12%. Fidelity Digital Assets suggests Bitcoin is poised for its next major upside move, supported by strong network fundamentals and reduced selling pressure.
• Analysts say current price consolidation may precede a sharp rally, with long-term holders accumulating and miner selling slowing. The firm sees parallels to previous bull cycles and believes macro conditions could further support Bitcoin’s trajectory.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 78,000–100,000,  Ethereum: 1,900–3,000,  Solana: 100–176

Forex:

• The EUR/USD pair edged higher to around 1.0815 during Tuesday’s early European session, supported by renewed dollar weakness. Traders are focused on the upcoming reciprocal tariff announcement from President Donald Trump, scheduled for Wednesday, which is adding to trade policy uncertainty. Lingering concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and a cautious tone from the Fed are also weighing on the Greenback, providing modest tailwinds to the euro.
• Meanwhile, USD/JPY continued its slide for a second consecutive session, as the Japanese yen gained strength on rising safe-haven demand. Investors remain wary of potential market fallout from fresh U.S. tariffs and broader geopolitical risks, fueling flows into the yen. Expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening, following recent inflation data and policy commentary, have added to the downward pressure on the pair, which touched its lowest level in over a week.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700–1.0950, USD/JPY: 148–151

Commodities:
 

• WTI crude oil climbed to around $71.35 in Tuesday’s Asian session, buoyed by renewed supply concerns after President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil. While the threat added bullish momentum, a weakening global economic outlook and rising trade uncertainty could limit further upside, as demand risks begin to surface.
• Gold extended its record-breaking rally, surging to a new all-time high of $3,127 before easing slightly to $3,119. The yellow metal remains firmly supported by safe-haven demand amid speculation that Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs could be broad and far-reaching. Despite a modest rise in U.S. yields and the DXY, gold continues to attract inflows as market sentiment deteriorates. Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. recession probability to 35%, reinforcing the flight to safety ahead of key macro data later this week.
  Watchlist: Gold: 2,600–3,130, WTI Crude: 65.00–79.00

Key Economic Events Today (EST):

09:00 am: USD FOMC Barkin Speaks
09:45 am: USD Final Manufacturing PMI
10:00 am: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:00 am: USD JOLTS Jolb Openings
10:00 am: USD ISM Manufacturing Prices

Earnings Calendar:

Before Market Open: nothing  
After Market Close: NCNO

The TEFS Analyst Team wishes you a successful trading day!