Relief rally or just a pause? 24/03/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:
 

• Markets opened weak on Friday but recovered enough to close the week slightly higher. The S&P 500 avoided a fourth straight weekly loss. With the Fed’s decision and most earnings behind, investors found some reassurance in Chair Jerome Powell’s comment that tariff effects would likely be short-lived. Still, markets remain on edge as Trump’s April 2 deadline for reciprocal tariffs nears. The president said the measures target countries placing duties on U.S. imports. Many now see this deadline as the next key market driver.
• Bank of America noted in a Sunday report that “equities feel ripe for a bounce,” citing improved sentiment and positioning. Trump eased concerns slightly Friday by hinting at “flexibility” in the tariff plan, though he stopped short of promising exemptions. On Sunday, The Wall Street Journal reported the tariffs may be narrower in scope, with some industries likely excluded. Despite this, Trump’s trade rhetoric and soft consumer sentiment data have added to investor worries about a potential slowdown in U.S. growth.

Relief rally or just a pause?
 

• Stocks staged a relief rally last week, snapping a three-week losing streak, but whether the momentum holds may depend on Tuesday’s consumer confidence report. With inflation concerns easing and the Fed signaling patience, investors found some breathing room—but renewed anxiety could return fast if sentiment data disappoints.
• Economists are eyeing a modest uptick, yet confidence has been trending lower amid persistent worries over growth, high rates, and trade tensions. The numbers could influence expectations for rate cuts later this year, making it a key data point for both Wall Street and the Fed. Add in geopolitical risks and lingering tariff uncertainty, and the market’s recent gains may be walking a tightrope.

 
Stocks on the move: 
      

• Lockheed Martin (LMT) — Shares of the defense contractor slumped roughly 5.8% following a Bloomberg report stating that President Donald Trump selected Boeing (BA) over Lockheed Martin for the next-generation fighter jet contract. Boeing stock, in contrast, jumped around 3.1% on the news.
• Nike (NKE) — The athletic apparel giant saw its stock slide 5.5% after cautioning that sales are likely to decline in the current quarter, overshadowing a fiscal third-quarter earnings report that topped estimates on both revenue and profit.
• Micron Technology (MU) — Despite beating expectations in its fiscal second-quarter results, the chipmaker’s stock sank 8%, as investors appeared to focus on forward-looking concerns.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) — Shares climbed 7.8% after JPMorgan raised its rating from underweight to neutral, citing positive momentum from increased shipments of Blackwell products as a catalyst for the upgrade.
• FedEx (FDX) — The delivery services company saw its stock fall more than 6% after trimming its full-year revenue and earnings outlooks, signaling a more cautious stance moving forward.
   

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets mostly edged higher Monday, with investors keeping a close watch on the looming April 2 tariff deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump. Japan’s Nikkei 225 inched up 0.14%, while the broader Topix index dipped 0.24%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.10%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 hovered near the flatline after Chinese Premier Li Qiang warned of "rising instability" and urged nations to open markets and foster business cooperation.
• In the U.S., stock futures pointed to a positive start to the week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) rose by 233 points, or 0.55%. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) gained 0.67%, and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) climbed 0.81%, as traders look to see if last week's momentum can carry into the new week. On the economic calendar, a key consumer confidence report is due Tuesday, followed by initial jobless claims data on Thursday—both seen as potential market movers.

Watchlist: NVDA, SMCI, TSLA, BA, FDX, MU, OKLO, LUNR
 

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has dropped over 23% from its January peak of $109,225, recently trading near $84,353, as market jitters over President Trump’s tariff plans weigh on risk assets. The crypto briefly dipped below $80,000 on March 11 but rebounded after the Fed signaled a slowdown in quantitative tightening, lifting prices above $87,000 midweek.
• Analysts say looser liquidity conditions could support crypto, and options data shows a shift toward bullish sentiment. Still, downside risks remain. Amberdata’s Greg Magadini warned Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 amid macro uncertainty, especially if tariff concerns persist. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index sits at 20—well below the 60 level historically linked with major rallies—suggesting weak momentum. Traders remain wary in a market sensitive to sudden policy shifts.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 78 000-100 000, Ethereum:1900-2600, Solana: 100-176
   

Forex

• The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar in Monday’s Asian session, with EUR/USD reaching near 1.0815 and snapping a three-day losing streak. The move comes as concerns over a U.S. economic slowdown, tied to President Trump’s trade policy, weigh on the dollar. The pair remains above the 100-day EMA, supported by a bullish RSI. Key resistance is seen at 1.0955, while immediate support lies at 1.0775. Traders are watching March PMI data from the Eurozone, Germany, and the U.S. for fresh direction later in the day.
• The Japanese yen weakened for a third consecutive session, with USD/JPY climbing toward the 150.00 level. A soft PMI reading from Japan and improved risk sentiment weighed on the safe-haven currency, especially as reports suggest Trump’s upcoming tariffs may be less aggressive than initially feared. Diverging monetary policy outlooks between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve may limit yen strength in the near term. The dollar, meanwhile, continues to recover from recent multi-month lows.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.0950, USD/JPY: 148-150
   

Basic Materials

• Gold (XAU/USD) extended its pullback into a third straight session on Monday, though it held above the $3,000 mark. A more upbeat market mood, driven by easing fears around President Trump’s tariff policies, weighed on the safe-haven metal. Reports suggesting the planned tariffs may be narrower than expected encouraged risk appetite. Still, expectations for Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks are offering some support to bullion.
• Meanwhile, oil prices remained under pressure. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded around $68 per barrel during Asian hours, declining for a second session. The drop followed U.S.-Ukraine talks in Riyadh that signaled possible increases in Russian oil supply and a push for a Black Sea ceasefire. Analysts pointed to easing geopolitical stress and potential U.S. sanctions relief on Russian oil as factors weighing on prices. Separately, Iraq announced plans to raise its oil production capacity beyond 6 million barrels per day by 2029 through expanded drilling and international partnerships.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2600-3050, US Oil: 65.00-79.00
   

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
09:45 am: USD Flash Manufacturing PMI
09:45 am: USD Flash Services PMI
01:45 pm: USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
03:00 pm: USD FOMC Member Barr Speaks

Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens)
LUNR         Intuitive Machines
AMC (After the US Market closes): KBH, OKLO

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!