Nvidia’s Big Day: GTC 2025 18/03/2025

HOT stories for today

 

US market wrap:
 

• The market brushed off Treasury Secretary Bessent’s cautious remarks and Baidu’s budget AI model debut, pushing into Monday with momentum to extend its two-day winning streak. The S&P 500 gained 0.64%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.85%, and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.31%.
• While February’s retail sales missed expectations, they still showed growth, offering some reassurance to investors. Big tech struggled to gain traction, but the broader market found stability as traders positioned themselves ahead of Wednesday’s crucial Fed meeting. Meanwhile, the OECD downgraded its economic outlook, citing concerns over Trump’s trade tariffs dampening global growth. Let’s see if NVIDIA’s big day and its vision for the future can inject fresh energy into tech bulls and shake up the sector.

NVIDIA’s Big Day: GTC 2025
 

• NVIDIA’s GPU Technology Conference (GTC) 2025 is in full swing, drawing over 25,000 attendees eager to witness the latest advancements in AI and accelerated computing. CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote is the highlight, with expectations centered around the unveiling of Blackwell Ultra AI chips, designed to push the boundaries of AI training and solidify NVIDIA’s dominance in the space. Beyond hardware, NVIDIA is introducing co-packaged optics (CPO) technology, which integrates optics directly with AI accelerators to enhance data center efficiency. This innovation could shake up the optical networking industry and impact key players like Applied Optoelectronics and Lumentum.
• The conference also dives into quantum computing, robotics, and cybersecurity, with industry leaders discussing AI’s expanding role across sectors. Investors are closely watching for insights into NVIDIA’s market strategy, particularly as competition heats up and economic uncertainties loom.As GTC 2025 unfolds, NVIDIA aims to reinforce its position at the forefront of AI innovation, setting the stage for the next era of computing.

 
Stocks on the move: 
      

• Affirm (AFRM) shares dropped 4% after CNBC reported that Klarna will replace Affirm as Walmart’s exclusive financing provider. 
• Monday.com (MNDY) jumped 4% following an upgrade to a buy rating from D.A. Davidson, which called the recent pullback a strong buying opportunity and reaffirmed confidence in the company’s cash flow durability. 
• Tesla (TSLA) slipped 5% after Mizuho cut its price target, citing concerns over weaker EV sales ahead, though analysts maintained their outperform rating. 
• Robinhood (HOOD) surged 7% after announcing a new prediction markets hub, allowing traders to bet on events ranging from sports outcomes to Federal Reserve rate decisions.
   

Today’s action
 

• Asia-Pacific stocks advanced Tuesday, mirroring Wall Street’s gains after U.S. retail sales data helped temper recession concerns. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 2.07%, driven by a strong rally in tech heavyweights like Baidu. Investor focus now shifts to Japan, where the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kicks off its two-day policy meeting. The central bank is widely anticipated to hold interest rates steady at 0.5% when the meeting concludes on Wednesday, aligning with expectations for the Federal Reserve, which is also set to keep rates unchanged. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.30% in late trading, reflecting investor optimism.
• Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures dipped slightly Monday night after two days of gains provided relief from last week’s sell-off. Dow futures slipped 84 points (-0.2%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.24% and 0.34%, respectively. Ahead of the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday, traders will closely watch economic reports on imports, housing, construction, and industrial production, with no major earnings on the calendar for Tuesday.

Watchlist: NVDA, SMCI, AVGO, TSLA, BIDU, BABA, AFRM

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin remains steady at $84,000 as markets await this week’s FOMC meeting, with investors widely expecting the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady. While crypto markets have seen a slight rebound—reflected in the CoinDesk 20 Index rising 2.4%—analysts caution that further downside may be ahead. LMAX Group’s Joel Kruger warns that if U.S. equities correct further, Bitcoin could retreat toward the $73,000-$74,000 range, aligning with its March 2024 peak. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) has climbed 2.8%, stabilizing above $1,900.
• Some analysts suggest the Fed may pause or end quantitative tightening (QT) to ease liquidity concerns, potentially offering support to risk assets. However, crypto’s next move remains closely tied to broader market sentiment, with traders bracing for volatility following the Fed’s decision.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 78 000-100 000, Ethereum:1900-2600, Solana: 100-176

Forex

• The EUR/USD pair hovers near 1.0915 in early Asian trading Tuesday, posting mild losses as Trump’s renewed tariffs on EU goods weigh on the Euro. However, a weaker U.S. Dollar, pressured by concerns over an economic slowdown and Germany’s fiscal stimulus plans, could help limit further downside.
• Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen remains under pressure, declining for a third straight session as risk sentiment improves. Optimism over China’s stimulus measures and hopes for a Ukraine peace deal have weakened demand for safe-haven assets. Additionally, the U.S. Dollar rebounded modestly from a five-month low, pushing USD/JPY beyond the mid-149.00s. However, with both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve set to announce policy decisions, traders remain cautious about the pair’s next move.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.0920, USD/JPY: 148-150

Basic Materials

• WTI crude oil climbed to $67.30 in early Asian trading Tuesday, extending its rally as geopolitical tensions escalate. The U.S. vowed to continue strikes on Houthis after the group launched a missile and drone attack on the USS Harry S. Truman and its escort warships in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, China’s plans to boost consumption further support oil prices. However, concerns over Trump’s tariff policies and their impact on global demand may cap further gains.
• Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward momentum, surpassing $3,000 to hit a fresh all-time high as safe-haven demand surges. Market jitters over Trump’s economic policies, U.S. recession fears, and geopolitical uncertainty are driving investors toward bullion. Expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts, fueled by weaker consumer spending data, add to gold’s appeal. However, a modest U.S. Dollar rebound and an improving risk-on sentiment could limit further upside.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2600-3020, US Oil: 65.00-79.00

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time
08:30 am: USD Building Permits
08:30 am: USD Housing Starts
08:30 am: USD Import Prices
09:15 am: USD Industrial Production

Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens)
BEKE       KE Holdings
XPEV      XPeng Inc.
TME        Tencent Music
FLOC      Flowco Holdings
AMC (After the US Market closes): ZTO, STNE, LX

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!