'Chaos' continous, but no Recession yet 11/03/225

HOT stories for today

 

US market wrap:

• U.S. equities endured their most severe decline of 2025 on Monday, prompting analysts to caution that additional sell-offs were likely imminent. Concerns grew that the Nasdaq Composite Index could slip into a bear market after the Trump administration failed to alleviate anxiety surrounding a potential economic downturn in the U.S. 
• The sell-off struck the tech-focused Nasdaq COMP -4.00% with particular force, as major technology giants collectively shed nearly $1 trillion in market value. Fears of a recession continued to escalate, pushing global investors to the sidelines, while long-term optimists awaited a catalyst to halt the market’s downward spiral before reinvesting in their preferred stocks. The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.08%. U.S. Tesla shares plummeted over 15% on Monday, marking their steepest drop since September 2020.

'Chaos' continous, but no Recession yet

• Market turbulence and geopolitical uncertainty following Donald Trump’s return to the White House have sparked recession fears. Economists label Trump an “agent of chaos” due to his unpredictable tariff policies but maintain that an economic downturn isn’t imminent.
• Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, stated that while Trump’s trade policies create uncertainty, the U.S. economy remains resilient with stable consumer spending and a firm labor market. However, long-term growth may suffer, with inflationary pressures likely to persist. Global markets have been rattled by Trump’s tariff announcements, leading to volatility in U.S. indexes. JPMorgan analysts caution that prolonged trade tensions could dent U.S. GDP growth and earnings, shifting their outlook to "Tactically Bearish." Trump has downplayed recession fears, calling the economic shift a "period of transition."

Stocks on the move:
        

• Delta Air Lines (DAL) — The airline’s stock tumbled around 14% after the company lowered its Q1 outlook, citing weakened consumer and corporate confidence amid rising economic uncertainty.
• Oracle (ORCL) — Shares climbed 3% as the cloud computing giant announced a 25% hike in its quarterly dividend to $0.50 per share. However, its fiscal Q3 earnings fell short of Wall Street estimates on both revenue and profit.
• Asana (ASAN) — The stock plummeted over 25% following CEO Dustin Moskovitz’s announcement of his retirement. The company also provided disappointing forward guidance.
• Vail Resorts (MTN) — Shares jumped more than 4% after the company posted stronger-than-expected fiscal Q2 earnings of $6.56 per share, surpassing analyst projections of $6.31. Revenue matched forecasts at $1.14 billion.

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets declined on Tuesday, following losses in the United States driven by concerns over tariff policies and the risk of a potential recession in the world’s largest economy. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.18 percent, recovering from deeper losses earlier in the session. South Korea’s Kospi was down 1.19 percent, while the small-cap Kosdaq slipped 0.88 percent. In Greater China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 0.75 percent, and Mainland China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.66 percent.
• Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures showed modest gains in early Tuesday trading after Monday’s broad sell-off. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed earlier losses to rise 0.3 percent, or 126 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.14 percent. S&P 500 futures also inched higher. Investors are closely watching economic data releases scheduled for later this week. Job openings data is set to be released on Tuesday, followed by February’s consumer price index on Wednesday morning and the producer price index on Thursday.

Wahtclist: ORCL, MTN, ASAN, DAL, DKS, CIEN, BZ, AVGO

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 on Monday, deepening the ongoing crypto market sell-off as risk sentiment weakened across financial markets. The decline came amid a broader downturn in U.S. equities, with major indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 facing steep losses due to recession fears and trade tensions.
• Other cryptocurrencies also saw sharp declines, with Ethereum briefly falling below $2,000. The broader crypto market has struggled to find positive catalysts, facing pressure from macroeconomic uncertainties and a slowing global economy. Analysts suggest that without a shift in market sentiment or renewed bullish momentum, digital assets could remain under pressure in the short term.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 78 000-100 000, Ethereum:1900-2600, Solana: 100-176

Forex

• EUR/USD edged lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, trading around 1.0860 after breaking below an ascending channel pattern, signaling a potential shift toward bearish momentum. The 14-day RSI remains above 70, indicating the possibility of a downward correction, with primary support seen at the nine-day EMA of 1.0716.
• Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen strengthened amid risk-off sentiment fueled by trade war concerns. Despite a downward revision of Japan’s Q4 GDP, expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, coupled with a narrowing yield gap, continued to support the JPY. The currency remains near its strongest level since early October, reinforcing bearish prospects for USD/JPY.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.0900, USD/JPY: 148.7-160

Basic Materials

• Gold prices rebounded from a one-week low on Tuesday but remained below the $2,900 mark, supported by ongoing trade war fears and geopolitical risks. Investor uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies continued to drive safe-haven demand for bullion, attracting dip-buyers near the $2,880 level. Additionally, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts kept the U.S. dollar under pressure, further benefiting the non-yielding XAU/USD pair.
• Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil extended its decline, trading around $65.45 during the early Asian session. Concerns over the economic impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China weighed on energy demand, contributing to the downside pressure. However, potential U.S. sanctions against Iran and Russia could help limit further losses.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2600-2945, US Oil: 65.00-79.00

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

06:00 am: USD NFIB Small Business Index
10:00 am: USD JOLTS Job Openings

Earnings

BMO (Before the US Market opens)
VIK            Viking Holdings
DKS          Dick’s Sporting Goods
BZ             Kanzhun Limited
CIEN         Ciena Corp.
AMC (After the US Market closes): CASY, PRSU, CDRE

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!