First solid session of the year 06/01/2024

HOT stories for today
 

Stocks on the move:

• Rivian Automotive (RIVN +24.5%): The electric vehicle maker’s stock surged 24.5% after reporting 2024 production and deliveries in line with its earlier guidance. This comes despite Rivian lowering its full-year production target back in October.
• Block (SQ +6.2%): The fintech stock gained 6.2% after Raymond James upgraded it to outperform from market perform. Analyst John Davis highlighted the company’s attractive valuation and expressed renewed confidence in Block’s growth outlook for 2025.
• Constellation Energy (CEG +4%): Shares rose 4%, building on Thursday’s gains after the company secured over $1 billion in contracts to supply nuclear power to the U.S. government for the next decade.
• Carvana (CVNA -11.2%): The stock tumbled 11.2% after Hindenburg Research accused the online used-car retailer of creating a “mirage” turnaround through unstable loans and accounting manipulation. Carvana saw a 284% surge in 2024 but is down over 5% so far this year.

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Monday as investors digested key business activity data from the region.China’s Caixin Services PMI rose to 52.2 in December, marking the fastest expansion in the service sector since May 2024. Over the weekend, China’s central bank announced plans to implement a "moderately loose" monetary policy in 2025 to stimulate growth. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s PMI showed a decline in December compared to the previous month.
• In the U.S., equity futures saw minimal movement early Monday. Dow Jones futures slipped 29 points (-0.07%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 0.02% and 0.1%, respectively. Investors are bracing for another shortened trading week, with the New York Stock Exchange closed on Thursday in observance of former President Jimmy Carter’s passing. Final Services PMI data for the U.S. will be released after the market opens today.

Wahtclist: TSLA, NVDA, CVNA, VST, CEG, CVX, MSFT, GOOGL

Bitcoin
 

• Bitcoin is trading at $98,309, with a market cap of $1.94 trillion and a 24-hour volume of $19.92 billion. It has fluctuated between $97,292 and $98,626 intraday, signaling a critical point in its price movement. After rebounding from a recent low of $91,315, Bitcoin remains in a bullish framework, aiming to break the $98,000–$100,000 resistance zone. A successful breakout could trigger strong upward momentum, though low trading volumes hint at possible consolidation.

• Analysts project Bitcoin could hit a new high above $125,000 or drop toward $77,000 in the first quarter, depending on whether President-elect Donald Trump delivers on his pro-crypto promises after his inauguration. According to John Glover, CIO at crypto platform Ledn, Bitcoin might dip to $89,000 before surpassing $125,000, based on Elliott wave theory — a widely used technical analysis tool.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 91 000-108 000, Ethereum: 3100-3800, Solana: 200-222

Forex
 

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure as uncertainty around the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) next rate hike continues to weigh on sentiment. The USD/JPY pair edges closer to its multi-month high from December, driven by the widening US-Japan yield gap and a risk-on mood in global markets. The au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI for December was revised lower to 50.9 from 51.4, adding to the JPY's weakness. Meanwhile, the US Dollar stands near a two-year high, supported by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, further boosting the USD/JPY pair.
• EUR/USD dropped 0.8% on the first trading day of 2025, hitting 1.0250 — its lowest level since November 2022. Bearish sentiment continues to weigh heavily on the Euro, with analysts expecting the rate gap between the ECB and Fed to widen further, potentially pushing the pair toward parity this year. Adding to the Euro's struggles, the European Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, while dovish comments from ECB official Yannis Stournaras further dampened market sentiment.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0200-1.0460, USD/JPY: 155-158.50

Basic Materials
 

• WTI crude prices extended gains for the sixth consecutive session on Friday, trading near $73.00 per barrel after hitting a two-and-a-half-month high of $73.39 on Thursday. The rally is fueled by expectations of increased government policy support to boost global economic growth. China's state planner, the NDRC, announced plans to issue ultra-long treasury bonds to fund key infrastructure projects, while the EIA reported a sixth consecutive drop in US crude inventories, with a draw of 1.178 million barrels, further supporting oil prices.
• Gold prices (XAU/USD) edged higher in Friday’s European session, driven by safe-haven flows amid ongoing geopolitical tensions after US President Joe Biden discussed potential strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, gold's upside could be limited as the US Dollar Index remains near a multi-year high of 109.56. On the other hand, subdued US Treasury yields continue to provide support for the non-yielding metal. Investors now await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for December, expected to remain steady at 48.4, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2530-2750, US Oil: 65.00-74.50

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day !