Rocky start to 2025 03/01/2025

HOT stories for today

Stocks on the move:

• Unity Software (U - 9%): Shares of the video game company jumped 9% after social media influencer Keith Gill, widely recognized by his alias Roaring Kitty, shared a gif on platform X.
• Constellation Energy (CEG +7%): Shares rose 7% after the company announced a record $1 billion contract to supply nuclear energy to the U.S. federal government.
• Tesla (TSLA -5%): The electric vehicle manufacturer dropped 5% following its first-ever annual decline in vehicle deliveries.
• Carvana (CVNA -1.87%): Shares declined after a Hindenburg Research report accused the company of $800 million in undisclosed loan sales and accounting manipulation, fueling bearish retail sentiment.
• Uber (UBER +5.01%): Shares gained 5% after Goldman Sachs added the stock to its US conviction list, citing robust growth potential and profitability, despite a downgrade from JMP Securities over concerns about autonomous vehicle competition.

Today’s action

• China stocks extended their declines on Friday, marking a rough start to the new year, even as the broader Asia-Pacific region saw gains. Investors remain cautious as they interpret Beijing’s policy signals, with the People’s Bank of China reportedly planning to cut interest rates "at an appropriate time" this year, according to the Financial Times. Political uncertainty in South Korea also looms, as the nation’s corruption watchdog pursues an arrest warrant for impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol. In Europe, markets closed higher, driven by gains in oil and gas stocks. However, the sterling and euro weakened against the strong US dollar.
• US stock futures remained largely unchanged on Thursday night after a volatile start to 2025. Dow Jones futures dipped 16 points (-0.04%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edged down 0.04% and 0.03%, respectively. The week’s economic calendar remains light, but traders are keeping an eye on Friday’s ISM Manufacturing Index release, along with remarks from Federal Reserve officials Thomas Barkin and Mary Daly.

Wahtclist: TSLA, COIN, CVNA, UBER, CEG, AVGO, U, GOOGL


Bitcoin
 

• Bitcoin trades steadily between $96,566 and $96,751, with a 24-hour trading volume of $27.76 billion. After rebounding from a local low of $91,315, Bitcoin broke above $96,000, signaling a potential shift in its recent downward trend.
• Continuing the crypto bull run in 2025 will likely hinge on regulatory developments and whether Donald Trump’s campaign promises to support the crypto industry come to fruition. During his campaign, Trump pledged to back the industry and gained endorsements from prominent figures in the crypto space. “The first 100 days of Trump’s term will be crucial,” said Sean Farrell, head of digital assets at Fundstrat, in an interview. Historically, the first 100 days have been seen as a key period for evaluating the effectiveness and direction of U.S. presidents.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 91 000-108 000, Ethereum: 3000-3600, Solana: 174-204

Forex

• EUR/USD slid 0.8% on the first trading day of 2025, reaching 1.0250—a level last seen in November 2022 and marking a nearly 26-month low. Bearish sentiment continues to dominate as weaker-than-expected European Manufacturing PMI data and dovish remarks from ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras weigh on the Euro. Analysts predict the rate differential between the ECB and the Fed will widen further, with some forecasting parity for EUR/USD in 2025.
• USD/JPY eased to around 157.30 during Friday’s Asian session, down 0.21%. Verbal warnings from Japanese authorities about potential FX intervention supported the Yen, though uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook limits gains. Meanwhile, expectations of slower Fed rate cuts continue to underpin the US Dollar. Markets await the December US ISM Manufacturing PMI data, set to be released later on Friday, for further direction.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0200-1.0460, USD/JPY: 155-158.50

Basic Materials
 

• Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended gains for the fourth straight session on Friday, trading higher amid safe-haven demand fueled by geopolitical tensions. The metal’s impressive 27% rise in 2024 marked its best annual performance since 2010. Continued unrest in the Middle East and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict have driven strong demand for gold. However, its dollar-denominated nature may face headwinds as the US Dollar Index hovers near a multi-year high of 109.56, while subdued US Treasury yields provide some support for the non-yielding asset.
• WTI crude oil prices continued their upward trend, rising for the sixth consecutive day to trade around $73.00 per barrel during Friday’s Asian session. WTI reached a two-and-a-half-month high of $73.39 on Thursday, supported by optimism that global governments will implement policies to stimulate economic growth, boosting fuel demand. The EIA reported a sixth consecutive drop in US crude oil inventories, with a 1.178 million-barrel decline, further underpinning oil prices. Additionally, China’s state planner, the NDRC, announced plans to increase funding through ultra-long treasury bonds to support key infrastructure projects, adding to the positive outlook for crude.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2530-2750, US Oil: 65.00-74.00

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!