Stocks skip Santa Claus rally 31/12/2024

HOT stories for today

 

Stocks on the move:

• Boeing (BA -2%): A report by the Financial Times revealed that South Korea plans to inspect all B737-800 aircraft operated by its domestic airlines following Sunday’s Jeju Air crash. The disaster, which claimed 179 lives out of 181 passengers, is considered the worst aviation accident in the country’s history.
• MicroStrategy (MSTR -11%): The company’s Bitcoin purchases slowed further during Dec. 23-30 as the cryptocurrency’s price remains in the low-to-mid $90,000 range.
• Tesla (TSLA -3.30%): Shares fell 3.3% premarket, adding to Friday’s 5% drop, after the company announced a recall of nearly 700,000 vehicles due to a potential issue with the tire-pressure monitoring system’s warning light. Tesla plans to address the problem with a free software update. The company is also set to release its fourth-quarter delivery numbers on Thursday.
• Social media and internet stocks Meta Platforms (META -1.43%), Alphabet (GOOGL -0.79%), and Snap (SNAP -1.18%) slid after President-elect Donald Trump petitioned the Supreme Court on Friday to block a federal law banning TikTok, which is set to take effect on Jan. 19.

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets declined Tuesday as China’s manufacturing growth fell short of expectations. However, the country’s benchmark CSI 300 is on track to finish the year higher, breaking a three-year losing streak. China’s December purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 50.1, below forecasts, suggesting Beijing’s stimulus efforts have not significantly revitalized the struggling economy. Notably, Chinese stocks are set to end the year with an impressive annual gain of nearly 16%.
• After a strong year for Wall Street, stock futures were slightly lower heading into the final trading session 2024. The S&P 500 is poised for its second consecutive annual gain exceeding 20%, driven by optimism around rate cuts, economic resilience, and advancements in artificial intelligence. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were nearly flat, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%, and Nasdaq-100 futures edged down by almost 0.1%. The S&P 500 has climbed 23.8% for the year, marking another robust annual gain. The Dow has risen nearly 13%, while the Nasdaq Composite outpaced both with a remarkable 29.8% surge. U.S. markets will be closed on Wednesday during New Year’s Day.

Wahtclist: NVDA, META, BA, MSTR, COIN, TSLA, SMCI, PLTR
 

Bitcoin
 

• Bitcoin slipped below $92,000 yesterday, but key support levels appear to be holding. What could the new year bring for the cryptocurrency? After surpassing the $100,000 mark earlier this month, Bitcoin has shown some volatility. Historical patterns indicate that a new peak might emerge by mid-January, potentially coinciding with significant political events later in the month.
• Some analysts speculate that momentum from recent market catalysts could extend into the new year, with potential for a cycle peak in the weeks ahead. Projections based on prior trends suggest Bitcoin could reach a range between $146,000 and $212,500 during this cycle, though market conditions and sentiment will likely play a critical role.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 91 000-108 000, Ethereum: 3000-3600, Solana: 174-204

Forex

• EUR/USD edged higher in Tuesday’s Asian session; EUR/USD traded near 1.0410, recovering from the previous day’s losses. as the US Dollar weakened, pressured by declining Treasury yields. On Monday, US Treasury yields dropped around 2%, with 2-year and 10-year yields settling at 4.24% and 4.53%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Euro faces challenges as the European Central Bank continues its dovish stance on interest rate policy for the coming year.
• USD/JPY slid 0.7% on Monday amid thin holiday trading volumes. The pair fell back below 157.00 as markets shifted into the midrange ahead of midweek New Year’s closures. With a sparse data calendar on both sides of the Pacific, investors are focused on upcoming US PMI figures and remain uncertain about the Bank of Japan’s next move on rate hikes. Broad market activity remains subdued as the year-end holiday session continues.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0300-1.0460, USD/JPY: 155-158.50

Basic Materials

• Oil prices in 2025 are expected to remain steady, though several factors could lead to shifts. China’s oil demand, projected to peak between 2025 and 2027 due to rising electric vehicle adoption and LNG use, has subdued prices. India’s growing demand is also gaining attention, with its growth rate expected to surpass China’s, alongside contributions from Southeast Asia and South Asia. On the supply front, OPEC+ decisions remain pivotal. While non-OPEC nations like the US, Guyana, and Brazil are expected to boost production, US output may be restrained despite a pro-oil administration. Renewed sanctions on Iran could tighten supply and push prices upward.
• This year, West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude prices have shown notable stability, ending close to their starting levels. Analysts credit this to a balance between demand uncertainties and controlled supply. Looking ahead, China's stimulus measures and geopolitical developments, including OPEC+ actions and sanctions, may shape market movements in the coming year.
  Watchlist: GOLD 2530-2750, US Oil: 65.00-72.00

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day and a Happy NEW YEAR!