NVIDIA Today After the Close: The Test of the AI Rally 26/08/2026
Market Wrap
U.S. stocks advanced on Tuesday as easing Treasury yields and lower oil prices helped improve risk sentiment ahead of a key stretch of economic data and corporate earnings.
The S&P 500 gained 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7%, supported by renewed strength in technology shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 160 points, or 0.3%, notching its third consecutive winning session.
Oil prices moved lower as Washington appeared to shift its strategy toward Iran toward greater economic pressure, helping ease some of the inflation concerns that have weighed on equities and bonds. Meanwhile, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion of U.S. goods, keeping trade tensions in focus.
Attention now turns to Wednesday’s July personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists expecting prices to rise 0.1% from the previous month and 3.6% from a year earlier. That compares with a 0.1% monthly decline and 3.7% annual increase in June.
The inflation reading takes on added significance after the recent turmoil in the Treasury market. Long-term yields surged to multiyear highs last week, with the 30-year rate reaching levels not seen in nearly two decades. Some of that pressure eased Tuesday as yields fell across the curve and the 10-year rate dropped almost 8 basis points.
Nvidia (NVDA) will provide another major test for markets when it reports second-quarter results after Wednesday’s closing bell.
Nvidia Options Price In Unusually Quiet Earnings
Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings are still one of the biggest events for the AI trade, but options markets are expecting a surprisingly restrained reaction this time.
Traders are pricing in an implied move of about 5.4% following Wednesday’s report, the smallest expected earnings swing since August 2021. That reflects a recent pattern in which Nvidia shares have moved less than options markets anticipated after each of the company’s past eight reports.
The cautious positioning comes after an unusually weak stretch for the stock. Nvidia ended Monday with seven consecutive declines, its longest losing streak since October 2022, while the broader semiconductor sector has struggled to regain its late-June highs.
Even so, the report remains critical for the broader market. Investors will be watching Nvidia’s results and guidance for fresh evidence on AI demand, capital spending and whether enthusiasm around the sector can regain momentum.
Options are cheaper than usual heading into the event, which could make the setup more attractive for traders expecting a larger-than-priced move. But Nvidia also faces growing questions around AI financing, competition and whether massive infrastructure spending can continue at the current pace.
Stocks on the Move
- Moderna (MRNA): Shares rallied 13%, extending last week’s powerful gains after positive late-stage results for its cancer vaccine developed with Merck (MRK). Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to peer perform, citing continued momentum around the intismeran story.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL): Shares jumped 5% after Susquehanna and Rosenblatt both raised their price targets. Analysts highlighted improving prospects for Marvell’s custom XPU business and its expanded partnership with Google. The company reports earnings Thursday.
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Shares gained 5% after Raymond James upgraded the chipmaker to strong buy from outperform and set a $641 price target, implying roughly 40% upside. The firm expects AMD to continue taking CPU market share from Intel.
- Semiconductors — Intel (INTC), Nvidia (NVDA), VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): Chip stocks moved broadly higher, with Intel and Nvidia each gaining more than 1% and SMH also advancing over 1%.
Watchlist: NVDA, AMD, MRNA, SNDK, AAPL, MU, WSM, ANF, COIN, XOM, MSTR
Key Economic Events Today
Economic Data (EST)
- 8:30 AM — USD Core PCE Price Index
- 8:30 AM — USD Prelim GDP
- 8:30 AM — USD Core Durable Goods Orders
Earnings
Before Market Open: Williams-Sonoma (WSM), The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM), Dycom Industries (DY), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Li Auto (LI)
After Market Close: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Salesforce (CRM), Agilent (A)
