McDonald's Earnings in Focus 04/11/2026

Market Wrap

U.S. stocks ended Tuesday mostly higher as semiconductor shares rebounded ahead of the midterm election results, although the Dow lagged amid weakness in Apple and consumer stocks.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.83% to 25,372.01, while the S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,568.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 197.26 points, or 0.38%, to 51,786.72, as investors balanced renewed technology buying against political uncertainty.

AI-related shares supported the recovery after several difficult sessions. Nvidia (NVDA) advanced about 2.3%, while Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Broadcom (AVGO) also gained. Apple (AAPL) slipped 1.9% as concerns about higher memory costs and softer margins weighed on the stock.

The rebound came after the Nasdaq briefly entered correction territory earlier in the week, reflecting mounting skepticism over AI infrastructure spending and financing. Tuesday's gains showed that demand for selected chip and cloud stocks remains resilient despite valuation concerns.

Attention shifted sharply to the election results after the closing bell. Early indications of substantial Democratic gains fueled expectations of divided government and potentially tougher scrutiny of AI infrastructure and technology companies. U.S. stock futures declined overnight, with major technology names also trading lower in extended sessions.

AMD (AMD) initially surged by double digits after reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, but pared gains as futures weakened. Solar stocks moved higher in overnight trading amid speculation that a Democratic-controlled Congress could challenge some policies affecting renewable energy.

President Donald Trump signaled willingness to work with Democrats, helping temper political concerns. Meanwhile, developments involving Iran and the outlook for oil supplies remain important risks for energy markets and inflation expectations.

Wednesday's economic calendar features October ADP private payrolls at 8:15 a.m. ET, September trade balance at 8:30 a.m., final services PMI at 9:45 a.m. and October ISM Services at 10:00 a.m. ET. McDonald's (MCD) and CVS Health (CVS) report before the open, followed by Qualcomm (QCOM) after the close.

Midterms, AI and the Fed: What's Next?

Historically, U.S. stocks have often strengthened after midterm elections, even when the immediate market reaction has been volatile. A CNBC analysis of elections since 1980 found that the S&P 500 gained an average of 13.7% in the year following midterms, with positive one-year returns after all 11 midterm contests from 1982 through 2022.

The index also averaged a 0.2% gain after one day and one week across presidential and midterm elections, and 1.1% after one month. Strategists say the removal of election uncertainty can provide relief, although short-term outcomes remain unpredictable.

Divided government has historically been associated with stronger subsequent returns. Following elections that produced split control in Washington, the S&P 500 gained an average of 15% over the next year, compared with 11.5% after elections that left one party in control.

In the three midterm elections that produced Democratic control of both chambers alongside a Republican president, the index averaged a 0.5% decline on the following trading day, followed by gains of 3.4% after one month and 10.9% after one year.

However, election patterns are not guarantees. Federal Reserve policy, corporate earnings and the economic cycle have often mattered more than political outcomes. The market fell in 2018 amid monetary tightening despite a midterm result that produced divided government.

The immediate challenge for investors is whether a Democratic sweep could bring tougher oversight of artificial intelligence and slow parts of the data-center investment boom. At the same time, higher global bond yields and the conflict involving Iran could amplify volatility.

While historical seasonality offers grounds for optimism, the durability of the AI trade, monetary policy and corporate profit growth will likely determine whether Wall Street can sustain its recovery into year-end.

Stocks on the Move

• Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Shares surged more than 9% after quarterly earnings and revenue topped Wall Street expectations. The server maker projected fiscal 2027 net sales of $72 billion–$82 billion, ahead of the $69.17 billion consensus.
• Arista Networks (ANET): Shares rallied 12% after the cloud networking company issued stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter guidance. Arista forecast earnings of $1.26–$1.30 per share on revenue of $3.9 billion–$4.0 billion, above estimates of $1.15 per share and $3.60 billion.
• Block (XYZ): Shares climbed more than 6% after third-quarter results exceeded expectations and management raised its full-year outlook. Adjusted earnings reached $1.13 per share versus $1.03 expected, while revenue of $6.72 billion beat the $6.59 billion consensus.
• CVS Health (CVS): Shares edged higher following a Wall Street Journal report that the company plans to separate its retail pharmacy business into a second publicly traded company, with the split expected in the first half of 2028.
• Duolingo (DUOL): Shares jumped 11% after third-quarter revenue of $309 million topped estimates of $303 million. Monthly active users reached 153 million, above the 149 million forecast, while adjusted EBITDA margin also beat expectations.

Watchlist: SMCI, ANET, XYZ, CVS, DUOL, AMD, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, CRWV, TAN, AAPL, MCD, QCOM, PLTR, MRVL

Key Economic Events Today

Economic Data (ET)

• 08:15 AM — USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (October)
• 08:30 AM — USD Trade Balance (September)
• 09:45 AM — USD Final Services PMI (October)
• 10:00 AM — USD ISM Services PMI (October)
• 10:30 AM — USD EIA Crude Oil Inventories

Earnings

Before Market Open: McDonald's (MCD), CVS Health (CVS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Emerson Electric (EMR), W.W. Grainger (GWW)

After Market Close: Qualcomm (QCOM), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Allstate (ALL)