Markets Watch Oil's Next Move 10/08/2026
Market Wrap
US stocks ended higher on Friday after a surprisingly weak July jobs report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve can keep interest rates unchanged for now.
The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to a record close of 7,757.64, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.3% to 26,690.62. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 152 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 54,036.93.
July payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, while the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% as labor-force participation dropped to its lowest level in more than five years. Investors interpreted the soft labor data as reducing the need for near-term Fed tightening.
Stocks also closed out a strong week. The S&P 500 gained 3.6%, the Nasdaq jumped 5.2% and the Dow advanced nearly 3%, giving all three indexes their best weekly performance since April. Semiconductor shares helped drive the rebound, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) up more than 7% for the week.
Software stocks also rallied after a fresh round of earnings eased concerns that AI will quickly disrupt the sector. SpaceX (SPCX) surged 12% on Friday, while oil prices edged higher as investors continued to watch negotiations around the Strait of Hormuz.
Weekend developments were less encouraging, however, after Iran denied holding direct talks with the US over reopening the waterway. WTI crude rose about 1% Sunday to above $79 a barrel.
Attention now shifts to this week’s inflation data, with CPI and PPI reports expected to provide the next major test for the Fed outlook. Earnings will also remain in focus, with On Holding (ONON), Cava Group (CAVA), Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and CoreWeave (CRWV) among the companies scheduled to report.
Oil Mixed as Hormuz Uncertainty Lingers
Oil prices traded mixed on Monday as investors weighed conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran over the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude was little changed near $83.50 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.2% to around $78 after both benchmarks had gained more than 1% earlier in the session.
Iran said it is not currently engaged in direct negotiations with the US and has reportedly attached several conditions to reopening the strategic waterway, including compensation and an end to military action. Washington, meanwhile, has maintained that any agreement must guarantee unrestricted freedom of navigation without Iranian tolls or controls.
The uncertainty continues to support a geopolitical risk premium in energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, while Houthi attacks in and around the Red Sea are adding pressure to alternative shipping routes.
With the conflict now entering its sixth month, traders remain highly sensitive to any signs of progress — or renewed escalation — that could materially affect global crude flows.
Stocks on the Move
- Atlassian (TEAM): Shares surged more than 29% in premarket trading after fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat expectations. First-quarter revenue guidance also came in above forecasts, although the company’s full-year growth outlook of 13% was slightly below consensus.
- Doximity (DOCS): Shares more than doubled at one point in premarket trading after management highlighted strong economics from its new AI search product. CEO Jeffrey Tangney said the tool is generating more than 10 times as much revenue per search as it costs to operate.
- Wendy’s (WEN): Shares fell 2% after the restaurant chain reported a more than 6% decline in global sales, including an 8.2% drop in the US. The company withdrew its 2026 outlook despite beating expectations for earnings, revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
- First Solar (FSLR), Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG): Solar shares moved higher after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imported products used in solar-panel manufacturing. First Solar gained more than 5%, TAN rose nearly 3% and SolarEdge added 2%.
Watchlist: SPCX, ORCL, CRWV, FSLR, MU, SNDK, TSLA, META, AMD
Key Economic Events Today
Economic Data (EST)
- 03:00 PM — USD FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
Earnings
Before Market Open: Barrick Mining (B), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG)
After Market Close: Rocket Lab (RKLB), Alcon (ALC), AST Spacemobile (ASTS)
