JOLTS Data Puts Labor Market in Focus 01/09/2026
Market Wrap
U.S. stocks fell on Monday as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil and Treasury yields higher, though Wall Street still closed August with solid monthly gains.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,686.14, while the Nasdaq Composite edged 0.1% lower to 26,370.89. The Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed, dropping 374 points, or 0.7%, to 53,185.90, pressured by losses in Goldman Sachs (GS) and Alphabet (GOOGL).
Geopolitical risk returned to the forefront after U.S. forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, marking the first exchange of fire between the two sides in about a month. Oil prices responded sharply, with WTI crude climbing 2.8% to $85.76 a barrel and Brent gaining 2.7% to settle above $90. Longer-dated Treasury yields also moved higher, adding pressure to equities.
Individual stocks were active as well. Amazon (AMZN) came under pressure following allegations from the Federal Trade Commission involving billions of dollars in hidden advertising fees, while Tesla (TSLA) outperformed as investors looked ahead to the expected launch of its Cybercab.
Despite Monday's weakness and a volatile geopolitical backdrop, August was a strong month for equities. The S&P 500 gained 2.6% and the Nasdaq advanced 3.9%, their first monthly gains since May. The Dow added more than 1%, extending its winning streak to five consecutive months. AI-linked technology stocks remained among the strongest contributors.
Attention now shifts to September, historically a challenging month for equities, with a heavy economic calendar adding another potential source of volatility. Manufacturing and services data are due early in the week before Friday's August employment report, where economists expect the U.S. economy to have added around 53,000 jobs.
September May Defy Its Bearish History
September has historically been the weakest month for U.S. equities, but the S&P 500 enters this year's traditionally difficult stretch from a considerably stronger technical position.
The index gained 2.6% in August, its best August performance since 2021, and remains well above its 200-day moving average. That could be significant: since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.2% September gain when beginning the month above its 200-day trend, compared with an average 3% decline when starting below it.
Momentum also remains supportive. The S&P 500 rallied about 21% in the 100 trading days through Aug. 21, and historical returns following similarly strong advances have generally remained positive. The index is up 12.3% this year and sits only about 1.4% below its August record high.
Seasonality remains a risk. September has averaged a 1.1% decline since 1928, making it the weakest month of the year historically. But strategists see little technical evidence of a major market breakdown and believe the current setup could eventually support another rally into the fourth quarter.
With second-quarter earnings season largely complete, macroeconomic developments are likely to take greater control of the market. Inflation, the labor market and the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate hike will therefore be key drivers as investors test whether this September can break with history.
Stocks on the Move
- Apple (AAPL): Shares slipped nearly 2% following reports that Phil Schiller, who oversees the App Store and product events, will step down from his current role. Schiller will remain with Apple on other initiatives. The leadership change comes as John Ternus prepares to succeed Tim Cook as CEO.
- Science Applications International (SAIC): Shares gained 4% after the defense contractor raised its full-year outlook following strong quarterly sales. SAIC now expects adjusted earnings of $10.65 to $10.75 per share and revenue between $7.2 billion and $7.3 billion.
- Howmet Aerospace (HWM): Shares tumbled more than 8% after SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said the company plans to produce turbine blades and vanes in-house, potentially reducing its reliance on outside suppliers.
- Herbalife (HLF): Shares dropped 13% after the company announced CEO Stephan Gratziani will leave at the end of October, with CFO John DeSimone taking over on an interim basis. Herbalife maintained its full-year financial outlook.
- Energy Stocks (HAL, CVX, XOM, VLO, OXY): The sector moved higher as oil prices jumped more than 2% following renewed military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran. Halliburton (HAL), Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Valero Energy (VLO) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) each gained roughly 1%.
Watchlist: XOM, COIN, MDT, NIO, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA, SNDK, DELL, PANW, CVX, META
Key Economic Events Today
Economic Data (EST)
- 09:45 AM — USD Final Manufacturing PMI
- 10:00 AM — USD ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices
- 10:00 AM — USD JOLTS Job Openings
- 10:00 AM — USD Construction Spending
Earnings
Before Market Open: Medtronic Plc (MDT), NIO Inc. (NIO), MiniMed Group (MMED)
After Market Close: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Dell Technologies (DELL), Credo Technology (CRDO), MongoDB (MDB), GitLab (GTLB)
