Fed Decision Day: Rates and PPI Take Center Stage 18/03/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. stocks rose Tuesday, though gains faded by the close as oil extended its rally. The S&P 500 ended up about 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite added nearly 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 46.85 points, or 0.1%. Crude prices climbed after renewed attacks on energy infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates heightened concerns over supply disruptions and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate settled up nearly 3% at $96.21 a barrel, while Brent rose 3.2% to $103.42, its highest close since August 2022. President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that the U.S. did not need assistance from NATO allies in the Middle East. The remarks followed comments a day earlier suggesting a coalition could be assembled to safeguard vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. 
• Investors are now focused on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, with markets expecting policymakers to leave rates unchanged in a 3.5% to 3.75% range. Traders will parse any comments from Chair Jerome Powell for clues on whether rising oil prices could alter the policy outlook. They are also awaiting February producer price data, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting a 0.3% increase. In corporate news, Micron Technology is due to report results after the close Wednesday. The stock has surged nearly 62% this year on strong demand for high-bandwidth memory. Bitcoin, meanwhile, remained below $75,000 but was holding relatively steady.

Fed Set to Hold as Oil Surge, Inflation Risks Complicate Outlook

• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week as policymakers weigh a difficult mix of geopolitical tension, rising inflation risks, and uneven labor-market signals. Markets are pricing in almost no chance of a cut at Wednesday’s meeting, with futures implying the first move may not come until September or October and even then, likely only once this year. That leaves Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues poised to keep the benchmark rate in a 3.5% to 3.75% range. The real focus will be on Powell’s guidance. A fresh rise in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict has muddied the inflation outlook, while the broader economy has remained resilient enough to keep the bar for easing high. Even before the latest attacks, investors had already pushed back expectations for rate cuts.
• The renewed jump in energy prices has only reinforced the case for caution. Investors will also study the Fed’s updated economic projections, including the closely watched dot plot, for clues on how officials see the path ahead. Most expect only modest revisions, with policymakers still signaling a slow and careful approach to any easing. The meeting also comes amid renewed political pressure from President Donald Trump, who again criticized Powell and called for lower borrowing costs. Still, the Fed is expected to stay on hold, leaving markets to parse whether Powell signals that rate cuts are simply delayed — or increasingly unlikely in the near term.

Stocks on the move:

• Lululemon (LULU): Shares of the athletic-apparel retailer slipped about 1% after the company beat fiscal fourth-quarter expectations but issued weaker-than-expected guidance for full-year 2026. Lululemon forecast revenue of $11.35 billion to $11.50 billion, below the $11.52 billion consensus estimate from LSEG. Its earnings outlook of $12.10 to $12.30 per share also fell short of the $12.58 expected.
• DocuSign (DOCU): The software company rose 1.3% in after-hours trading after topping fourth-quarter estimates and issuing strong guidance for both the current quarter and full year. DocuSign expects first-quarter revenue of $822 million to $826 million, ahead of the $813 million analysts surveyed by LSEG had projected.
• Oklo (OKLO): Shares of the nuclear technology firm dropped more than 2% after reporting a full-year loss of 72 cents per share, compared with a loss of 74 cents per share a year earlier.

Watchlist: NVDA, UPST, MU, LULU, DOCU, OKLO, WSM, GIS, JBL

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD PPI, Core PPI
10:00 am: USD Factory Orders
10:30 am: USD Crude Oil Inventories
02:00 pm: USD Federal Funds Rate
02:30 pm: USD FOMC Press Conference



Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): Jabil (JBL), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), General Mills (GIS)

AMC (After Market Close): Micron Technology (MU), Five Below (FIVE)




The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!