Crude Swings as Geopolitics Drive the Market 17/03/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. stocks bounced on Monday as oil prices pulled back from last week’s war-driven spike, giving investors some relief after a bruising stretch for risk assets. The S&P 500 rose 1.0%, rebounding from its lowest close of the year after last week’s selloff tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added about 388 points, or 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 1.2% gain. All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, with technology leading the advance. NVIDIA climbed about 1.7% after Chief Executive Jensen Huang said at the company’s annual GTC conference that he expects $1 trillion of orders for NVIDIA’s Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems through 2027. The retreat in crude helped steady sentiment.
• Brent settled down 2.8% at $100.21 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 5.3% to $93.50 on Monday. After last week’s surge in energy prices, the move lower gave equities room to recover. Even so, investors remain focused on the geopolitical backdrop. While resilient economic growth, moderating inflation, and solid corporate earnings have continued to support equities, some on Wall Street warn that the risks to that narrative are building as the war drags on. On the corporate calendar, Lululemon, DocuSign, and Oklo are due to report results on Tuesday. Markets are also looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s second rate decision of the year on Wednesday, with expectations for rate cuts fading amid intensifying inflation concerns linked to the Iran conflict.

Oil jumps as Hormuz tensions cloud coalition plans
 

• Oil climbed more than 2% on Tuesday morning as uncertainty around a U.S.-led effort to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz kept traders focused on supply risk. Brent crude rose 2.45% to $102.57 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.51% to $95.85 as of late Tuesday. The move came as doubts persisted over whether a naval coalition to protect tanker traffic is actually close to taking shape. The latest price jump followed mixed messaging from Washington. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the U.S. was allowing Iranian oil tankers to continue passing through the strait, while the Wall Street Journal reported that a coalition to escort ships could soon be announced. But President Donald Trump suggested the effort was not yet fully assembled, saying some countries were hesitant to take part. 
• Trump also signaled frustration with allies unwilling to contribute, saying the U.S. had spent decades protecting countries that now appear reluctant to join the mission. That uncertainty has left markets focused less on headlines about diplomacy and more on the reality on the ground, where the risks still look escalatory. The Strait of Hormuz remains the key pressure point for global energy markets. The waterway, which sits between Iran and Oman, handled about 13 million barrels a day in 2025, or roughly 31% of global seaborne crude flows, according to Kpler. Attacks on shipping have sharply reduced traffic through the route, creating one of the biggest supply disruptions in modern oil-market history. For now, traders appear unconvinced that policy proposals such as naval escorts or insurance guarantees are ready to materially ease the disruption. Until a credible security framework is in place, oil markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to every new development around Hormuz.

Stocks on the move:

• Peloton (PTON): Shares of the connected-fitness company rose 4.5% after Peloton unveiled a new commercial product lineup aimed at high-traffic gyms, expanding beyond its at-home Bike and Tread business.
• Meta (META): The Facebook parent gained more than 2% after Reuters reported that Meta could cut 20% or more of its workforce to help offset rising artificial intelligence spending. A company spokesperson pushed back on the report, calling it speculative and based on theoretical approaches.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Shares of the chipmaker climbed about 2% ahead of its annual GTC conference, where Chief Executive Jensen Huang is set to deliver the keynote. Investors are looking for new signals on the durability of the AI spending boom and details on Nvidia’s next generation of processors.
• Upstart (UPST): The AI lending platform jumped more than 6% after BTIG upgraded the stock to buy and set a $43 price target. The call follows Upstart’s application for a national bank charter, which analysts said could lower funding risk, improve unit economics and materially lift earnings potential.

Watchlist: NVDA, UPST, MU, NBIS, TME, CVX, COIN, TSLA, META

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:15 am: USD ADP Weekly Employment Change
10:00 am: USD Pending Home Sales

Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): Elbit Systems (ESLT), Tencent Music (TME), GDS Holdings (GDS)

AMC (After Market Close): ZTO Express (ZTO, Lululemon (LULU), DocuSign (DOCU), Oklo Inc. (OKLO)




The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!

Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): Elbit Systems (ESLT), Tencent Music (TME), GDS Holdings (GDS)

AMC (After Market Close): ZTO Express (ZTO, Lululemon (LULU), DocuSign (DOCU), Oklo Inc. (OKLO)




The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!