Key Macro Friday: GDP and PCE Take the Stage 13/03/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• In Thursday’s session, all three major U.S. indexes posted their lowest closes of 2026. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 740 points, finishing below 47,000 for the first time this year, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%. Stocks came under renewed pressure as oil prices surged after Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.” West Texas Intermediate crude rose 9.72% to settle at $95.73 a barrel, while Brent gained 9.22% to $100.46, its first close above $100 since August 2022. Higher oil prices have become a central market concern, adding to broader pressure points including AI spending and private credit, Chris Toomey, a managing director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, said on CNBC’s Closing Bell.
• He added that any sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasting more than two or three months would become a serious problem for markets. The rise in crude has also fueled inflation concerns and further reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Beyond the geopolitical backdrop, investors are also looking ahead to Friday’s data calendar, which includes GDP, the personal consumption expenditures price index, core PCE, and durable goods orders. Asia-Pacific markets fell on Friday as investors braced for a potentially prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

U.S. Expands Trade Probe Push

• The U.S. opened new trade investigations into 60 economies on Thursday to determine whether they have failed to curb imports made with forced labor, a day after launching separate Section 301 probes into unfair trade practices across 16 partners. The latest cases, brought under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974, include China, the European Union, India and Mexico, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the investigations will examine whether foreign governments have taken sufficient steps to block goods produced with forced labor and how those failures affect U.S. workers and businesses. 
• The move broadens the administration’s trade push and could provide another route for tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs last month. Trump later imposed a 10% blanket global tariff under Section 122 and has threatened to raise it to 15%. The new probes come just ahead of trade talks in Paris between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, which are expected to help lay the groundwork for a summit between Trump and Xi Jinping. Trade analysts said the sweep of the investigations could strain ties with allies and complicate efforts to build a coordinated response to Chinese overcapacity, though few expect the probes to derail broader U.S.-China talks.

Stocks on the move:

• Ulta Beauty (ULTA): Shares fell 8% after the beauty retailer reported mixed fourth-quarter results. Ulta posted earnings of $8.01 a share, just below the $8.03 expected by analysts polled by LSEG, while revenue of $3.90 billion topped forecasts for $3.80 billion.
• Adobe (ADBE): Shares tumbled nearly 7% after the software company said Chief Executive Shantanu Narayen plans to step down once a successor is named. Narayen will remain board chair. The leadership news overshadowed first-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations on both revenue and profit.
• Lennar (LEN): Shares slipped 2% in extended trading after the homebuilder posted a second straight quarterly earnings miss. Lennar reported earnings of 93 cents a share on revenue of $6.62 billion, below LSEG estimates of 96 cents and $6.88 billion.
• Rubrik (RBRK): Shares rose 2% after the cloud and data-security company posted stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Rubrik reported adjusted earnings of 4 cents a share, versus expectations for an 11-cent loss, while revenue of $378 million beat the $342 million consensus. Its first-quarter revenue outlook also came in above expectations.
• SentinelOne (S): Shares fell nearly 3% after the cybersecurity company issued weaker-than-expected first-quarter earnings guidance. SentinelOne forecast adjusted earnings of 1 cent to 2 cents a share, below the 5-cent consensus from LSEG. Fourth-quarter revenue of $271 million was in line with estimates.

Watchlist: ORCL, ADBE, ULTA, RBRK, PODD, LEN, S, XOM, SLV

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Core PCE Price Index
08:30 am: USD Prelim GDP
08:30 am: USD Core Durable Goods Orders
10:00 am: USD JOLTS Job Openings
10:00 am: USD Consumer sentiment
10:00 am: USD Inflation Expectations




Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): VEON Ltd. (VEON), RLX Technology (RLX), Buckle Inc. (BKE)



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!