Geopolitical Tensions Keep Markets on Edge 10/03/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• Stocks staged a sharp turnaround in Monday trading, rebounding from steep intraday losses as oil prices pulled back and investors reacted to signs the conflict involving Iran could wind down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 239 points, or 0.5%, after earlier tumbling nearly 900 points. The S&P 500 advanced 0.8%, reversing a drop of as much as 1.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed nearly 1.4% after also trading lower earlier in the session. The reversal gained momentum after President Donald Trump told CBS senior White House correspondent Weijia Jiang that “the war is very complete, pretty much.” Trump also said the U.S. was “very far” ahead of his previously stated four- to five-week timeline and that he was “thinking about” taking over the Strait of Hormuz. After those remarks, West Texas Intermediate crude fell to about $81 a barrel after surging above $100 in overnight trading and at one point topping $119.
• Trump said Monday evening that the U.S. was making “major strides toward completing our military objective,” echoing earlier comments that the campaign could end soon. Speaking at a press conference at his golf club near Miami, he also said the administration was focused on “keeping energy and oil flowing to the world.” Asian markets rebounded as oil retreated on expectations the conflict could ease. Investors are also looking ahead to inflation data this week. February’s consumer price index is due on Wednesday, followed by January’s personal consumption expenditures price index on Friday. Neither report will capture the recent spike in oil prices triggered by the conflict. Oracle is scheduled to report earnings after the close.

Oracle Faces AI Spending Test

• Oracle heads into fiscal third-quarter results with investors still focused on whether its costly AI infrastructure push will pay off. Shares of Oracle (ORCL) are down 22% this year and remain about 55% below their September peak. Sentiment has stayed weak even after the company unveiled a $50 billion funding strategy that some analysts said could ease concerns about how much debt Oracle may need to take on. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect revenue of $16.2 billion and earnings of $1.70 a share. Remaining performance obligations, a key measure of future revenue, are projected at $556 billion.
•  The main focus is Oracle’s cloud infrastructure business, where Jefferies analyst Brent Thill is looking for 86% growth, 42% operating margins, and $18 billion in net new RPO. Even so, margins are expected to remain under pressure as Oracle leans further into AI infrastructure. Oracle has also pushed back on reports surrounding a potential data-center expansion in Abilene, Texas, calling recent media coverage “false and incorrect.” For many analysts, simply meeting expectations would help rebuild confidence, even if one quarter does little to settle the broader debate over Oracle’s AI pivot.

Stocks on the move:

• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS): Shares surged 39% after Bloomberg News reported, citing a person familiar with the matter, that the company reached a deal with Novo Nordisk (NVO), whose shares rose 3%, to offer the drugmaker’s weight-loss treatment on its platform. The agreement also resolves litigation aimed at stopping Hims from selling a copycat version of Wegovy.
• Live Nation Entertainment (LYV): Shares rose 6% after Bloomberg reported that the live-events company is nearing a settlement with the Justice Department over allegations it monopolized the live-concert industry.
• Mining stocks: The group fell as the stronger dollar pressured metals prices amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Newmont (NEM) each declined about 2%.
• Airline stocks: Carriers fell 1% to 3% as the Iran war drove jet-fuel prices higher and added to uncertainty around global travel. Delta Air Lines (DAL), American Airlines (AAL) and United Airlines (UAL) were among the names under pressure, alongside a TSA staffing shortage.
• Cruise operators: Royal Caribbean (RCL), Carnival (CCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) trimmed steeper earlier losses but still ended down 1% to 3% as investors weighed the impact of higher fuel costs.

Watchlist: ORCL, XOM, COIN, NVDA, BNTX, NIO, BA, UAL, RCL

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

06:00 am: USD NFIB Small Business Index
08:15 am: USD ADP Weekly Employment Change



Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): BioNtech (BNTX), Nio Inc. (NIO), Uranium Energy (UEC), Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN)

AMC (After Market Close): Oracle (ORCL), AeroVironment (AVAV), Joyy (JOYY)



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!