Job Report Takes Center Stage 11/02/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. stocks edged lower Tuesday after softer-than-expected retail sales data fueled concerns about consumer strength and the potential disruption from artificial intelligence in the financial sector. The S&P 500 fell 0.33%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.59%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, rising 52.27 points, or 0.10%. Retailers led the declines, with Costco and Walmart sliding more than 2% and over 1%, respectively, after data showed December consumer spending was flat. 
• Investors are now focused on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ January nonfarm payrolls report, due Wednesday, which was delayed by the partial government shutdown that ended Feb. 3. Economists expect little to no job growth, a result that could deepen the negative sentiment sparked by weak consumer data. More market-moving indicators are due later in the week, including the consumer price index on Friday, a key gauge of inflation. Elsewhere, crypto-related caution weighed on Robinhood’s sales and shares, while Bitcoin remained under pressure, with some analysts forecasting a further 20% decline.

Treasuries Rally as Flat Retail Sales Rekindle Growth Fears

• U.S. government bonds extended a rally Tuesday after delayed data showed December retail sales were flat, a reading that undercut expectations for economic momentum and pushed investors toward the safety of Treasuries. The move dragged yields lower across the curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield sliding to about 4.14%, its lowest level in nearly four weeks, and the 30-year falling to around 4.79%. The softer consumer picture also nudged markets toward a more dovish interest-rate path. Fed-funds futures lifted the implied odds of a quarter-point Federal Reserve cut next month to 19.6%, up from 17.2% on Monday, and traders leaned further into expectations for multiple cuts by year-end, more than policymakers have suggested. 
• “Fears that the economy was overheating were totally misplaced,” said Jay Hatfield, chief executive of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, pointing to how quickly the narrative has shifted from January’s growth optimism, when stronger GDP revisions helped push yields as high as roughly 4.3% on the 10-year. Tuesday’s rally pulled that benchmark back toward levels seen before those reflation bets took hold. The bond move echoed overseas, with sovereign debt in the U.K., France, and Germany also advancing as investors weighed what softer U.S. demand could signal for the global outlook. Adding to the cooling-growth narrative, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for real U.S. growth dipped to 3.7% from 4.2% following the retail-sales release.

Stocks on the move:

• Robinhood (HOOD): The trading-app operator fell about 7% after fourth-quarter revenue missed expectations. Revenue was $1.28 billion versus the $1.34 billion analysts forecast, according to LSEG. Transaction-based revenue also came in light at $776 million, compared with StreetAccount’s $801.4 million consensus.
• Lyft (LYFT): Shares sank 17% even as fourth-quarter bookings matched estimates at $5.07 billion, per FactSet. The company guided first-quarter adjusted EBITDA to about $120 million to $140 million, versus the $139.8 million consensus.
• Ford Motor (F): The automaker rose nearly 1% after fourth-quarter automotive revenue beat forecasts. Ford reported $42.4 billion, versus the $41.83 billion consensus estimate from LSEG. The company still posted its widest quarterly earnings miss in four years, with adjusted EPS of 13 cents versus 19 cents expected.
• Cloudflare (NET): The cloud-network firm jumped 15% in extended trading after issuing an upbeat first-quarter revenue outlook. Cloudflare projected $620 million to $621 million, above the $614 million LSEG consensus. The company also beat estimates on both revenue and earnings for the quarter and topped expectations for full-year revenue.
• Gilead Sciences (GILD): Shares slipped more than 1% after the company’s 2026 product-revenue forecast came in below expectations. Gilead projected $29.6 billion to $30.0 billion, short of the $30.26 billion FactSet consensus.

Watchlist: HOOD, COIN, LYFT, NET, MCD, APP, SHOP, NTES, CSCO

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Non Farm Employment Change
08:30 am: USD Unemployment Rate
10:00 am: USD FOMC Member Schmid Speaks
10:15 am: USD FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
10:30 am: USD Crude Oil Inventories


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), T- Mobile US (TMUS), TotalEnergies (TTE), Shopify (SHOP), NetEase (NTES)

AMC (After Market Close): Cisco Systems (CSCO), Applovin Corp. (APP)

 

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!