Crypto Searches for Direction as S&P Nears 7,000 Milestone 16/01/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. stocks rose Thursday, snapping a two-day slide that looked outsized after fresh record highs to start the week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each added nearly 0.3%, while the Dow climbed 0.6%. Small caps led the move, with the Russell 2000 up almost 0.9%. The bid followed upbeat prints from three major banks and the world’s largest contract chipmaker. Taiwan Semiconductor ended 2025’s final quarter on a stronger note and paired the results with a punchy message for next year, outlining roughly $56 billion in planned 2026 capital spending, a figure that helped re-energize semiconductor and big-tech sentiment. Traders also pointed to a White House trade update involving Taiwan, with tariffs on goods from the island reportedly reduced to 15% from 30% in exchange for expanded financing and $250 billion of direct investment.  
• Commodities eased as the macro backdrop stayed fluid. Silver slipped after the White House stopped short of new tariffs on critical metals, while oil fell about 4% as investors dialed back expectations for near-term U.S. intervention tied to Iran. Fed Governor Michael Barr struck a familiar tone on policy, while Bloomberg also cited talk that the U.S. and Greenland may be edging toward a deal. Crypto softened amid choppy risk appetite. Bitcoin dipped toward $95,000 as Senate delays and a risk-off tilt weighed on the group, though it held above its 100-day moving average after a pullback from the prior session’s high amid strong ETF inflows. Ether edged lower after clearing $3,400, consistent with some profit-taking, while XRP fell for a second straight day.

S&P 500’s Last Mile to 7,000 Gets Choppy

• The benchmark hovered just 60 points shy of the round-number mark Thursday, yet it has struggled to decisively break above the high-6,900s since late December as megacap tech leadership softens and geopolitics injects fresh volatility. It’s been 294 trading days, roughly 14 months, since the index last cleared a 1,000-point threshold, finishing above 6,000 for the first time on Nov. 11, 2024. Those milestones have arrived faster in recent years: it took 190 days to go from 5,000 to 6,000, 719 days to climb from 4,000 to 5,000, and 4,168 days to rise from 1,000 to 2,000. BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky says the stall fits a familiar pattern. Big round numbers aren’t inherently bearish, but four of the last five 1,000-point levels came with turbulence as investors digested gains and repositioned.
• The same dynamic is showing up in the Dow, which finished around 49,442, roughly 1.1% from 50,000, another milestone that has historically been preceded by consolidation or choppier trading. The backdrop is unusually noisy for mid-January. Markets have been whipsawed by headlines ranging from U.S. military action in Venezuela and renewed Trump talk on Greenland, to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and questions about the Federal Reserve’s political independence following a criminal investigation involving Chair Jerome Powell. Hartford Funds’ Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson says the S&P 500’s ability to rebound after down days has kept it near record highs, but the stronger performance abroad underscores how heavily U.S.-specific risks are being priced in. The message is that supportive earnings and policy tailwinds are colliding with a more fragile geopolitical order, a tension likely to shape the market’s path through 2026.

Stocks on the move:

• Eli Lilly (LLY): Shares fell nearly 4% after Reuters reported the FDA pushed back its decision on Lilly’s obesity pill to April 10. The drug had been under an expedited review program. The report didn’t cite a reason for the delay; Lilly has said it expects approval in the second quarter. Reuters also said reviews for Disc Medicine (IRON) and Sanofi (SNY) were delayed as regulators assess safety and efficacy — Disc dropped nearly 7% and Sanofi slipped more than 1%.
• Managed care: Health insurers moved higher after President Donald Trump urged Congress to advance his health-care framework. Humana (HUM) rose about 4%, Centene (CNC) gained 2.6%, Molina Healthcare (MOH) added almost 2%, and UnitedHealth (UNH) was up just under 1%.
• Boston Scientific (BSX), Penumbra (PEN): Boston Scientific said it agreed to buy Penumbra in a $14.5 billion cash-and-stock deal. Penumbra surged 12%, while Boston Scientific fell more than 4%.
• Coinbase (COIN): Shares slid 3% after the exchange withdrew its support for a U.S. Senate crypto market-structure bill. CEO Brian Armstrong said Coinbase “can’t support the bill as written,” citing concerns including what he called a de facto ban on tokenized equities and amendments he said would undermine stablecoin rewards.

Watchlist: LLY, MU, COIN, UNH, DELL, WDC, STT, NVDA, TSLA

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

09:15 am: USD Industrial Production
09:50 am: USD FOMC Member Collins Speaks
11:00 am: USD FOMC Member Bowmann Speaks
03:30 pm: USD FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks



Earnings

BMO ( Before Market Open): PNC Financial Services (PNC), State Street Corp. (STT), M and T Bank (MTB)



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!