Markets Weigh Data, Earnings and Political Upheaval 15/01/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. stocks fell for a second straight session on Wednesday as a slide in big tech weighed on the major averages. The S&P 500 dropped 0.5%, the Dow lost about 42 points, and the Nasdaq fell 1%. Early earnings have been solid, but the next test comes next week when tech giants report. Muted PPI data and the Fed’s Beige Book did little to shake expectations for rate cuts later this year. Existing-home sales rose 5.1% in December, the biggest gain in nearly two years, extending a four-month streak as 30-year mortgage rates fell to about 6.2%. Still, 2025 sales totaled just over 4 million, the weakest since 1995. 
• The White House’s affordability push widened to consumer credit after Trump floated a 10% cap on credit card rates, pressuring bank shares ahead of earnings as issuers collect APRs closer to 25%. Geopolitics stayed in focus: Trump met with Danish representatives on Greenland, and the State Department pulled personnel from bases in Qatar amid mass protests in Iran. Haven trades drew interest, while the Supreme Court again left intact the executive orders on tariffs. Retail sales rose. Iran’s unrest deepened, with the BBC reporting nearly 2,500 deaths and a sixth day of internet blackout. Europe was set to open higher, Asia traded mixed after the Bank of Korea held rates, and Bitcoin rebounded through $95,000 resistance.

Markets Juggle Data, Earnings, and Political Turmoil

• Markets are navigating a crowded week of catalysts, with data still ahead, including Thursday’s jobless claims — alongside bank earnings. But the dominant force behind the price swings has been geopolitics and Washington drama. Stocks largely looked past the criminal investigation involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Dow sank nearly 500 points early Monday on fears the probe signaled a broader Trump push to curb the Fed’s independence. By the close, the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 had erased the drop and finished at record highs. The reversal ran against the usual playbook, raising questions about whether the episode could revive a “Sell America” mindset that demands a higher risk premium for U.S. assets.
• Instead, investors appeared to take comfort from vocal support for Powell among prominent economists and increasingly clear Republican opposition in D.C. Economists echoed Powell’s view that the scrutiny is less about the Fed’s renovation and more about frustration that rate cuts haven’t come fast enough. Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she was “surprised the market isn’t more concerned.” However, the past two days have been in the red, mainly due to earnings and geopolitical turmoil. Other markets showed more caution: the dollar weakened, gold and silver climbed to fresh highs, and U.S. stocks lagged global peers this week. The VIX jumped Monday but stayed within its recent range, a signal, as Siebert Financial CIO Mark Malek put it, that investors expect the episode to blow over as earnings season ramps up.

Stocks on the move:

• Biogen (BIIB): Shares slid more than 4% after the biotech said it expects to take a $222 million pretax charge in the fourth quarter. The company said the hit, tied to R&D costs and milestone payments, would reduce net income by about $1.26 a share.
• Rivian (RIVN): The EV maker fell more than 8% after UBS downgraded the stock to sell from neutral. Analyst Joseph Spak said optimism around Rivian’s AI potential is largely already priced in, and while the firm likes the upcoming R2 SUV, expectations may be running too hot.
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): Shares dropped nearly 4% after the company forecast fewer da Vinci procedures than analysts expected for 2026. The guidance overshadowed preliminary fourth-quarter revenue of $2.87 billion, above the $2.72 billion FactSet consensus.
• AppLovin (APP): Shares sank more than 9% even after Evercore ISI initiated coverage at outperform with an $835 price target.

Watchlist: APP, NFLX, JPM, MS, GS, TSM, NVDA, MSFT, TSLA

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Unemployment Claims
08:30 am: USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
08:30 am: USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
08:35 am: USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
09:15 am: USD FOMC Member Barr Speaks
12:40 pm: USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks


Earnings

BMO ( Before Market Open): Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK),  First Horizon (FHN)
AMC (After Market Close): J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT), WaFD Inc. (WAFD)



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!