TEFS New Year’s Raffle Day as Markets React to Big News 05/01/2026

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. equities began the year on uneven footing. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher on Friday, the first trading session of 2026, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped just below flat. The S&P 500 added 0.19%, buoyed by strength in semiconductor shares, even as the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.03%. The Dow climbed 0.66%. Nvidia rose by more than 1% and Micron Technology surged by more than 10%, helping offset declines elsewhere. Tesla slid more than 2% after fourth-quarter delivery figures fell short of analyst expectations.
• Stock-index futures were little changed Sunday night as investors assessed geopolitical risks following a U.S. strike on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Some strategists downplayed the potential market impact, noting that Venezuela produces less than 1 million barrels of oil a day—under 1% of global supply. BCA Research Chief Strategist Marko Papic said the government remains supported by the military, while crude prices edged lower in early futures trading. Investors now turn their attention to Friday’s U.S. December jobs report for further direction. The TEFS Big New Year’s Raffle will be held today in the YouTube trading room, kicking off at 8:30 market time. Good luck to all participants.

Trump action in Venezuela raises Diesel Alarm

• President Donald Trump’s decision to send U.S. forces into Venezuela and detain President Nicolás Maduro risks worsening America’s affordability problem by pushing diesel prices higher and adding to inflation pressures. The move signals a sharp escalation of U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere, with Trump suggesting Washington could ultimately “run” the oil-rich nation. The immediate impact on crude oil prices may be limited. Global supply remains ample, U.S. production is strong, and spare capacity is significant. Diesel markets, however, are far more vulnerable. Venezuela and neighboring Colombia export heavy crude grades well-suited for diesel production, making distillate supplies sensitive to disruptions. 
• Any sustained outage could quickly raise diesel prices, thereby increasing transportation costs across the economy. Those costs tend to pass through to food, construction materials, and other freight-intensive goods, with rural areas hit hardest. U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are configured to process Venezuelan crude, and substitutes are costly or slow to arrive. With distillate inventories already tight, a prolonged intervention increases the risk that higher fuel costs spill into broader inflation and deepen the strain on consumers and businesses alike.

Stocks on the move:

• Vertiv (VRT): Shares jumped 8% after Barclays upgraded the data center infrastructure provider to overweight from equal weight. The bank said recent volatility has created an attractive entry point and sees upside to earnings estimates driving further gains.
• ASML (ASML): The chip-equipment maker climbed 8%, extending momentum after a 54.4% advance in 2025. No clear catalyst for the move was immediately apparent.
• Baidu (BIDU): The Chinese technology company surged 12.8% after announcing plans to spin off its semiconductor unit, Kunlunxin, and pursue a listing in Hong Kong.
• Li Auto (LI), Nio (NIO): Shares of the Chinese electric-vehicle makers rose about 1.6% each following December delivery reports. Li Auto said it delivered 44,246 vehicles last month, while Nio reported deliveries of 48,135 units.

Watchlist: XOM, NVDA, TSLA, MU, TSM, COIN, SLV, BIDU

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

10:00 am: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices



Earnings

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The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!