JOLTS Report Ready to Test Markets Again 09/12/2025

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. equities drifted lower Monday as investors eased back in from the weekend and positioned themselves ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision. Last week’s flat inflation prints paired with softer labor data reinforced expectations that the Fed is moving toward a third, and likely final, 25-basis-point cut. But with today’s JOLTS job-openings report set to follow that disappointing labor stretch, markets may face another layer of uncertainty. In media, Netflix, Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount, and Skydance remained tangled in a high-stakes corporate standoff worthy of a “Phantom of the Opera” subplot.
• After hours, Nvidia rose more than 2% after a Truth Social post said the company would be allowed to ship its H200 chips to “approved customers” in China and elsewhere, with 25% of the proceeds going to the U.S. government. The post added that China’s President Xi Jinping had “responded positively” to the terms. The arrangement, following Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s meeting with Donald Trump last week, would mark a notable win for the chipmaker after months of trade-related friction. Across Asia, markets mostly slipped overnight, echoing Wall Street’s cautious tone as investors globally waited for the Fed’s next move.

Mortgage Rates Flash Warning Sign

• ​​​​​The 30-year mortgage rate jumped 9 basis points to 6.36% on Monday, a two-week high and a sharp break from the usual pre–Fed-cut pattern. Instead of drifting lower ahead of an expected rate cut Wednesday, mortgage rates rose alongside the 10-year Treasury yield, which climbed to 4.17%. WSFS Home Lending President Jeffrey Ruben called the move atypical, reflecting renewed uncertainty about the Fed’s path as investors weigh lingering inflation risks and the likelihood that policymakers pause easing once rates near the 3% neutral range.
• The rise complicates the Trump administration’s push to bring down borrowing costs and revive a strained housing market. Despite multiple Fed cuts in 2025, the 30-year mortgage rate has remained stubbornly high, not breaking below 6% since early 2023. With relief still out of reach, borrowers are turning to lower-rate adjustable mortgages or seeking rate modifications from lenders as alternatives to refinancing in a persistently high-rate environment.

Stocks on the move:

• Confluent (CFLT): The stock climbed 29% following a Wall Street Journal report that IBM is in advanced talks to acquire the data-infrastructure company in an $11 billion deal.
• Broadcom (AVGO): Shares gained almost 3% after The Information reported that Microsoft is considering shifting its custom-chip work from Marvell Technology (MRVL) to Broadcom. Marvell shares fell 10%.
• Lumentum Holdings (LITE): The optical and photonics manufacturer rose 2% after extending its strategic partnership with U.K.-based semiconductor firm IQE.
• Carvana (CVNA), CRH (CRH): Carvana and Ireland-based building materials group CRH will join the S&P 500 prior to the market open on Dec. 22, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Friday. CRH gained 6%, while Carvana rose nearly 12%.

Watchlist: AVGO, CVNA, MU, MSFT, AZO, CPB, NVDA, COIN

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

06:00 am: USD NFIB Small Business Index
10:00 am: USD JOLTS Job Openings
10:00 am: USD CB Leading Index
01:01 pm: USD 10-y Bond Auction


Earnings

BMO ( Before Market Open): AutoZone (AZO), Ferguson Enterprises (FERG), SailPoint (SAIL), The Campbell’s Company (CPB)
AMC (After Market Close): Casey's General (CASY), AeroVironment (AVAV), GameStop Corp. (GME)



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!