Jobs Data Keeps Traders on Alert 03/12/2025

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. equities finished higher Tuesday, with gains in large-cap technology and a rebound in bitcoin helping lift the major benchmarks. The S&P 500 and Dow had briefly slipped into negative territory earlier in the session. At the same time, the Nasdaq hovered near the flatline as investors continued to navigate uneven sentiment around the artificial-intelligence trade. Markets are assessing the potential for a year-end rebound, with December’s historically strong seasonality offsetting a weak November marked by profit-taking in high-growth names.
• Traders are also positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 10 policy decision. Futures now imply roughly an 89% probability of a rate cut, sharply higher than mid-November levels, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Attention turns next to the November ADP employment report due Wednesday morning, which is expected to signal a steady labor backdrop and help shape expectations for the Fed’s path. Meanwhile, gold, silver and copper are each approaching record highs simultaneously, a convergence not seen in 45 years.

Tightening Funding Markets Put Fed Action in Focus

• Short-term funding markets are tightening again, with key overnight repo benchmarks, SOFR, and the Tri-Party General Collateral Rate, climbing back above 4% over the past week. The move has revived concerns that reserves may no longer be abundant, echoing pressures seen around the September, October, and November month-ends. Strategists say the dynamics resemble October’s liquidity squeeze: notable but not yet a sign of systemic stress. Small shifts in supply and demand are producing outsized moves in money-market rates as overall liquidity thins, according to J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s Sam Zief, who expects similar episodes to recur unless the Federal Reserve steps in with open-market operations early next year. Others argue the Fed may need to act sooner.
• Analysts at TD Securities see a rising risk that the central bank will announce reserve-management purchases, likely Treasury-bill buying, as early as January to shore up system reserves. Deutsche Bank notes policymakers could also ease pressures by adjusting the Interest on Reserve Balances rate, a move some in the market think could come as soon as next week. The repeated month-end strains, despite the conclusion of the Fed’s balance-sheet runoff, have heightened worries that liquidity conditions are tightening more quickly than policymakers anticipated, raising the odds of intervention ahead.

Stocks on the move:

• Pure Storage (PSTG): Fell nearly 9% after Q3 adjusted EPS of 58 cents matched estimates; revenue of $964.5 million beat expectations.
• CrowdStrike (CRWD): Slipped less than 1% after Q3 results and full-year guidance topped forecasts. Shares are up 25% in three months.
• Okta (OKTA): Dropped over 4% after the CEO said AI-agent upside isn’t yet “fully baked.” Q3 earnings of 82 cents on $742 million still beat expectations.
• GitLab (GTLB): Lost nearly 8% despite beating Q3 estimates. Raised full-year outlook and named Jessica Ross as CFO.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL): Jumped more than 15% after Q3 EPS and revenue slightly beat forecasts, extending a 44% three-month rally.

Watchlist: NVDA, MRVL, OKTA, CRWD, AMD, BOKSZ, COIN, AEO

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:15 am: USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
09:15 am: USD Industrial Production
09:45 am: USD Final Services PMI
10:00 am: USD ISM Services PMI
10:30 am: USD Crude Oil Inventories



Earnings

BMC (Before Market Open): Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Dollar Tree (DLTR)
AMC (After Market Close): Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Five Below (FIVE)



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!