December’s Question: What Will Markets Get? 01/12/2025

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. stocks edged higher during the shortened Black Friday session as investors returned from the holiday to early signs of robust consumer spending. The Nasdaq finished the week in rebound mode, though it remains roughly 2% lower for the month despite logging its strongest weekly advance in five months. Silver hit fresh all-time highs as some traders rotated out of cash and into metals. CME interest-rate futures, a key gauge of Fed policy expectations, were halted for about 10 hours due to a cooling failure at a Chicago data center, underscoring mounting stress on market infrastructure amid the data center buildout.
• Preliminary Black Friday sales data impressed, with U.S. consumers spending a record $11.8 billion online, up 9% from a year earlier, per Adobe Analytics. Still, MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert warned retail stocks often soften into year-end after strong Black Friday–Cyber Monday performance as Wall Street tends to overreact to early readings. Futures slipped Sunday evening as investors took profits following November’s volatile rally. In Asia, Chinese factory activity unexpectedly contracted in November, while crude advanced after OPEC+ reaffirmed its plan to pause output hikes through Q1 2026. Bitcoin’s recent rebound stalled, dropping more than 5% below $87,000 and extending its monthly slide to over 18%.

December’s Question: What Will Markets Get?

• December has a way of arriving before anyone is ready, forcing investors to ask the annual question: where did the year go? The final month acts as both a finish line and a mirror, reflecting the wins, losses and turning points of the past 12 months. Markets enter the month hoping for an early Christmas gift from the Federal Reserve as policymakers prepare for their final meeting of the year next week. Traders are pricing in a 25-basis-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool, a move many hope will spark the traditional “Santa Claus rally” and push equities higher into year-end.
• But the flight path isn’t entirely clear. President Donald Trump’s increasingly combative remarks have revived concerns about potential military action in Venezuela, while volatility in AI-linked stocks has left investors questioning whether uncertainty will escalate, or whether an overextended theme could give way to a late-season bubble. If time flies, then 2025 has moved at supersonic speed, and December is the runway. Seatbelts recommended.

Stocks on the move:

• In the industrial and automotive sector, General Motors (GM) closed at a record high after announcing an aggressive share-buyback plan and delivering strong earnings, reinforcing confidence in its profitability outlook. Steel Dynamics (STLD) and services firm Rollins (ROL) also reached new all-time highs. 
• In semiconductors and technology, Broadcom (AVGO) hit a record high driven by strong demand for AI data-center chips and deepening collaboration with Google. Analog Devices (ADI) also set a new record after reporting strong results supported by expanding AI and industrial automation applications.
• In retail, Walmart (WMT) surged to its highest level on record, while Ross Stores (ROST) notched a fresh high as both continued to benefit from value-conscious consumer spending.
• Healthcare REITs Ventas (VNT) and Welltower (WELL), hotel operator Hilton Worldwide (HLT), financial services provider Synchrony Financial (SYF) and logistics firm C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) also rounded out the list of companies closing at historic highs.

Watchlist: AVGO, COIN, WMT, COST, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, NVDA

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

09:45 am: USD Final Manufacturing PMI
10:00 am: USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:00 am: USD ISM Manufacturing Prices


Earnings

BMC (Before Market Open): Hafnia Limited (HAFN)
AMC (After Market Close): Credo Technology (CRDO), MongoDB (MDB), Vestis Corp. (VSTS)



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!