AI selloff meets OPEX Friday — volatility ahead 21/11/2025

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• An early stock-market rally evaporated Thursday as investors sold into strength and doubts resurfaced around the durability of the artificial-intelligence trade after Nvidia’s latest results. The Dow slumped nearly 1,000 points in a dramatic reversal, marking the sharpest intraday swing in tech since April’s tariff-driven surge. Semiconductors led the downturn: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped almost 5%, and tech names in the Nasdaq 100 slid roughly 5% from the session high. Nvidia reversed solid gains, posting a 2% loss despite better-than-expected earnings and forward guidance. 
• The catalyst wasn’t clear, said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, but positioning pointed to a broad risk-off shift as investors rotated into Treasurys. Yields fell as prices climbed. CEO Jensen Huang’s dismissal of AI bubble concerns did little to halt the selling. The debate intensified instead, with Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warning on CNBC that markets are already “80% of the way into an AI bubble.” Crypto also came under pressure. Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since April, while SoftBank tumbled more than 10% in Asia as the Nvidia-driven rout rippled across regional chipmakers. Asian equities largely echoed Wall Street’s dramatic intraday reversal. Today, heavy economic data, multiple FOMC member speeches, and options expiration are expected to add to the volatility.

Twin consumer-sector slump fuels pullback fears

• Wall Street is growing uneasy about the health of the U.S. consumer. For the first time since 1990, the S&P 500’s consumer-discretionary and consumer-staples sectors are sliding simultaneously, an unusual pattern that hints households may be cutting back. Discretionary stocks are down 5.2% since October, the worst-performing sector in the index, while staples are down 2.25%. Recent earnings reinforced the divide in spending power: Target and Home Depot reported soft demand and lowered guidance, while Walmart delivered a strong quarter and raised its outlook.
• Analysts at Bespoke note that neither consumer segment has led the market at any point this year, and both have slumped since the October government shutdown. Staples and discretionary rarely move in tandem; staples typically hold up when discretionary weakens, as spending shifts toward essentials. Their parallel decline has intensified concerns that consumer spending, which makes up roughly 70% of the U.S. economy, may be losing momentum heading into the holiday season.

Stocks on the move:

• Intuit (INTU): Shares climbed more than 3% after the company posted stronger-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results. Intuit reported adjusted earnings of $3.34 per share versus $3.09 expected, with revenue of $3.89 billion topping the $3.76 billion consensus.
• Gap (GPS): The clothing retailer rose nearly 6% after third-quarter same-store sales increased 5%, sharply ahead of estimates. Gap beat on both revenue and earnings, crediting momentum from its viral “Better in Denim” campaign. CEO Richard Dickson told CNBC the company has relied less on discounting to drive demand.
• Ross Stores (ROST): The off-price chain gained about 3% in late trading after beating Wall Street forecasts. Ross reported earnings of $1.58 per share on $5.60 billion in revenue, topping expectations of $1.41 per share on $5.42 billion. Management cited an “excellent back-to-school season” with strong trends carrying through the quarter.
• Elastic (ESTC): Shares fell roughly 12% even as fiscal second-quarter results came in ahead of estimates. The company reported adjusted EPS of 64 cents on $423 million in revenue and raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to $1.715 billion–$1.721 billion.

Watchlist: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, ROST, GPS, INTU, BJ, GOOGL, BMNR

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

07:30 am: USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
08:00 am: USD FOMC Member Collins Speaks
08:30 am: USD FOMC Member Barr, Miran Speaks
09:45 am: USD Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI
10:00 am: USD Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations
10:00 am: USD Wholesale Inventories10:00 am: USD Inflation Expectations



Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ), BitMine Immersion Tech. (BMNR), MINISO Group Holding (MNSO)

The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!