FOMC and Nvidia Share the Spotlight 19/11/2025

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• U.S. stocks extended their slide Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow headed for a fourth straight decline and the tech-heavy Nasdaq on track for a second day of losses. By the afternoon, the S&P 500 was down 0.8%, the Dow 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.2%, FactSet data show. The selloff has been broad: 324 S&P 500 constituents now trade at least 10% below their 52-week highs. Rate-cut hopes continue to unwind. Traders in fed-funds futures assign just a 48.9% probability to a December cut, down from around 90% a month ago. Bitcoin briefly sank below $90,000 before rebounding, helping limit losses across crypto.
• Volatility gauges are climbing, and the VIX jumped more than 10%, though some strategists argue that rising fear could set the stage for a near-term bounce. “Elevated anxiety can act as dry powder for a rebound,” said Michael Toomey, managing director of equities trading at Jefferies. Chips led the declines, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 2.3% into correction territory as 28 of its 35 members fell ahead of Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday. Megacaps were also under pressure, with Microsoft and Amazon dragging the group lower after a downgrade from Redburn and Rothschild & Co. Labor signals did little to calm nerves. ADP data showed a week-to-week net job loss, while investors look to Thursday’s federal unemployment reading, expected to climb to a four-year high of 4.3%. FOMC minutes will take center stage this afternoon, but the real fireworks arrive after the bell with Nvidia’s earnings.

All eyes on Nvidia ahead of Pivotal Earnings

• The direction of the AI trade may hinge on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who will address investors on Wednesday in one of the year's most closely watched earnings calls. The update comes after weeks of selling in AI stocks and fading expectations of a December Fed rate cut, raising concerns that higher borrowing costs could slow expansion plans across the sector. Nvidia’s results matter not only for tech sentiment but for the wider market. At October’s GTC conference, Huang said Nvidia has visibility into more than $500 billion in revenue tied to its Blackwell and Rubin AI platforms through 2026, with 30% already shipped. Investors will now look for reassurance that demand remains strong into 2027 and beyond. 
• Higher-for-longer rates remain a notable overhang, with traders increasingly cautious on growth names and hyperscalers. The recent government shutdown has complicated economic data signals for the Fed, increasing near-term volatility ahead of the September jobs report. Nvidia’s earnings represent the last major catalyst before the Fed meets on Dec. 10 and could shape market sentiment into year-end. Guidance on AI spending and the depreciable life of GPUs will be closely watched, given their potential to ripple across cloud, semiconductor, and megacap tech stocks.

Stocks on the move:

• Cloudflare (NET): The cloud and cybersecurity stock slipped more than 2% following an outage that disrupted major global platforms, including X and ChatGPT.
• Medtronic (MDT): Shares rose 6% after an earnings beat, reporting $1.36 per share excluding items on $8.96 billion in second-quarter revenue. FactSet consensus called for $1.31 a share and $8.87 billion.
• Home Depot (HD): The stock fell nearly 4% after third-quarter earnings missed expectations. The company posted $3.74 per share, adjusted, versus the $3.84 that analysts had forecasted. Home Depot also reduced its full-year earnings outlook.
• Ceva (CEVA): Shares dropped 11.5% after the semiconductor and software IP provider filed for an underwritten public offering of 3 million shares, with JPMorgan and UBS among the underwriters.

Watchlist: NVDA, AMD, META, TJX, LOW, TGT, WSM, COIN

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Trade Balance
10:00 am: USD FOMC Member Miran Speaks
10:30 am: Crude Oil Inventories
12:45 pm: USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
02:00 pm: USD FOMC Meeting Minutes


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Target Corp. (TGT), Williams-Sonoma (WSM)
AMC (After Market close): NVDIA Corp. (NVDA), Palo Alto Networks (PANW)


The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!