Fed Split, MAG 7 Falters, Apple and Amazon Up Next 30/10/2025

HOT stories for today

Market wrap:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%, or 74 points, after briefly touching a record high, while the S&P 500 finished flat and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%. The Fed delivered the widely expected quarter-point rate cut, but Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious tone in the post-meeting press conference sparked a late-session selloff. Earlier, Nvidia briefly broke above a $5 trillion market cap after CEO Jensen Huang told the GPT Tech Conference he expects orders to reach $500 billion by year-end. Still, a selloff in Treasuries pushed the 10-year yield back above 4%, signaling investor unease over the path ahead. 
• Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft reported earnings after Wednesday’s close, offering fresh insight into the AI trade. Alphabet jumped about 6% on strong cloud and ad results, while Meta sank 8% and Microsoft fell 4%, with spending concerns weighing on sentiment. The mixed reactions dragged futures lower in after-hours trading. 
• Meanwhile, President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping are meeting in person for the first time since Trump’s second term began, aiming to ease trade tensions. Trump said the U.S. will cut tariffs on Chinese fentanyl-related goods to 10% and announced a rare earths supply deal with Beijing. After the close today, Apple and Amazon will report results, the final test for the “Magnificent Seven” this earnings cycle. So far, megacap tech has delivered solid but not spectacular numbers. Traders are watching to see if the “Double A” duo can reignite momentum across the sector.

Fed Split widens on December Cut

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged a widening split among policymakers, saying there were “strongly different views” on whether to ease again in December and cautioning that another rate cut is “far from a foregone conclusion.” The Fed trimmed rates by a quarter point as expected, but Powell’s tone at the press conference shifted sentiment sharply. Traders cut the odds of a December move to 67% from 90% a day earlier, signaling doubts that policymakers will move again this year. Economists are equally divided. Deutsche Bank and BMO still anticipate another reduction, while BlackRock’s Rick Rieder and Barclays’ Jonathan Millar see a pause as more likely.
• Wilmington Trust’s Luke Tilley said a cut remains possible if labor-market data, once available after the government shutdown, points to weakness. Powell suggested uncertainty over missing data could weigh on the decision. “If you’re driving in the fog, you slow down,” he said. The meeting also featured the first two-way dissent since 2019, with Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid preferring no change and Governor Stephen Miran favoring a half-point cut. Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said the split reflects a legitimate policy debate rather than a loss of confidence in Powell’s leadership. “Inflation is still high, the labor market is weakening, and the data picture is cloudy; there’s no easy answer,” she said.

Stocks on the move:

• Alphabet (GOOGL): Shares jumped nearly 5% after the Google parent reported strong results, driven by better-than-expected Google Cloud and YouTube ad revenue. Adjusted earnings were $3.10 per share on $102.35 billion in revenue, topping LSEG estimates of $2.33 per share on $99.89 billion.
• Meta (META): Shares tumbled nearly 9% despite a beat on top and bottom lines. The company posted adjusted EPS of $7.25 on $51.24 billion in revenue, exceeding estimates of $6.69 and $49.41 billion. Meta also booked a $16 billion one-time charge tied to President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill and said 2026 capital expenditures will rise.
• Chipotle (CMG): Shares sank more than 13% after the chain cut its same-store sales outlook for the third straight quarter, citing weaker restaurant traffic. The company now expects fiscal 2025 same-store sales to decline by a low-single-digit percentage.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Shares slipped 2% despite topping fiscal first-quarter estimates. Adjusted EPS was $4.13 on $77.67 billion in revenue, ahead of forecasts for $3.67 on $75.33 billion. Azure cloud revenue rose 40%.
• Starbucks (SBUX): Shares edged down less than 1% after mixed quarterly results. Adjusted EPS was 52 cents on $9.57 billion in revenue, below profit forecasts of 56 cents but above revenue estimates of $9.35 billion. Same-store sales grew for the first time in nearly two years, led by international markets.
• Carvana (CVNA): Shares dropped 9% even after reporting stronger-than-expected revenue as retail unit sales jumped 44% in the quarter. Adjusted EPS was $1.50, though it’s unclear if the figure is directly comparable to consensus estimates.

Watchlist: META, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, NOW, MGM, CVNA, SBUX

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

09:55 am: USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open): Roblox (RBLX), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA), Merck (MRK)
AMC (After Market Close): Apple (APPL), Amazon (AMZN), Gilead (GILD)



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!