Powell & PepsiCo: Double Market Test 09/10/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• Investors hardly blinked on Wednesday, even after the release of the Fed minutes and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, as more analysts warn that an AI bubble may be forming. Talks of rate cuts and political deadlock have faded into the background, overshadowed by the actual market driver: artificial intelligence. AI leaders, such as Nvidia, now dominate market sentiment, propelling the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new record highs.
• Meanwhile, Oracle proved to be the straw that snapped the S&P 500’s seven-day winning streak on Tuesday. In Washington, the shutdown stalemate drags on with no resolution in sight, while gold extended its rally to a new record above $4,050 per ounce.

Fed split on rate cuts

• The latest FOMC minutes showed a split Fed: members agree more rate cuts are coming, but differ on when and how deep. The goal remains to protect jobs while keeping inflation in check. The committee voted 11–1 for a 25-basis-point cut, with Stephen Miran pushing for a larger move. Six of the 19 members expect one or no additional cuts this year.
•  “Most judged it would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year,” the minutes said, citing rising risks to employment and easing inflation. But some preferred to wait longer. The median view points to two more quarter-point cuts this year, too fast could unanchor inflation, too slow could raise unemployment. The Fed’s balancing act continues.

Stocks on the move:

• Joby Aviation (JOBY): Shares of the electric air taxi developer tumbled 11% after announcing the pricing of a previously revealed public offering. Joby plans to sell 30.5 million shares at $16.85 apiece, raising roughly $513.9 million in gross proceeds.
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): The stock soared 11% after unveiling a partnership with Verizon (VZ) to deliver satellite-powered mobile service starting in 2026. Verizon shares inched up 0.7% on the news.
• Trilogy Metals (TMQ): U.S.-listed shares of the Canadian mining explorer climbed another 8%, extending Tuesday’s 200%-plus surge after the White House announced plans to acquire a 10% stake in the firm.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB): Shares gained nearly 6% after the aerospace company landed a new contract for three additional rocket launches, expanding its commercial pipeline.

Watchlist: AMD, DAL, PEP, NVDA, ORCL, MU, RBLX, RGTI

Today’s action

• SoftBank Group jumped more than 13% after announcing a deal to acquire ABB’s robotic division, boosting sentiment in Japan’s markets. The Nikkei 225 advanced 1%, while South Korean markets remained closed for a holiday. In Hong Kong, Hang Seng Bank shares skyrocketed over 29%.
• In the U.S., S&P 500 futures edged up about 0.2% on Wednesday night after the index notched fresh record highs. Nasdaq 100 futures added more than 0.2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 60 points, or 0.1%. No major economic data is expected on Thursday due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Still, investors will listen closely to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at a community bank conference, along with speeches from Michelle Bowman and Mary Daly later in the day. Earnings reports from Delta Air Lines (DAL) and PepsiCo (PEP) are also on deck before the opening bell.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin (BTC $121,989) continues to show signs of steady upward momentum, with analysts saying it remains clear of “overbought conditions” even after setting a new all-time high above $126,000 on Monday.
• According to CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain, the cryptocurrency is “roughly halfway through its four-year price cycle.” Despite its sharp gains, technical indicators suggest Bitcoin is still trading within a stable range, well below the overheated levels that have historically preceded major tops.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 98 000-126 500, Ethereum: 4000-4980, Solana: 180-240
   

Forex

• EUR/USD regained some ground to trade near 1.1650 in Thursday’s Asian session, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar amid the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. However, lingering political uncertainty in France could limit the pair's further upside.
• Meanwhile, the Japanese yen stayed firm, with USD/JPY hovering around the 152.50 mark as the dollar softened. Expectations that Takaichi’s policies may delay BoJ rate hikes could restrain yen gains, while improved risk sentiment following the Israel–Hamas peace deal continues to weigh on safe-haven demand.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1880, USD/JPY: 148-153

Basic Materials

• Gold recovered to trade near $4,000 on Thursday after an early dip, maintaining its bullish bias. A reported Israel–Hamas peace deal eased safe-haven demand, but Fed rate cut bets and the U.S. government shutdown capped the dollar and supported gold. Traders now await Fed Chair Powell’s remarks for fresh cues.
• WTI crude slipped toward $61.50 as the EIA reported a 3.7 million-barrel inventory build, while OPEC+ agreed to a modest 137,000 bpd output increase for November, adding slight pressure to prices.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600-4080, US Oil: 55.60-75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD FED Chair Powell Speaks
08:35 am: USD FOMC Member Bowmann Speaks
09:40 am: USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open):

PEP                             Pepsico Inc.
DAL                             Delta Air Lines Inc.

AMC (After Market Close): LEVI, APLD, APOG, ODC



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!