Looming Government Shutdown Challenges the Bull 29/09/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• U.S. equities retreated last week as cracks emerged in a major driver of the bull market — optimism around artificial intelligence expansion. Nvidia’s staggering $100 billion alliance with OpenAI sparked doubts among investors about the long-term viability of the business. The S&P 500 declined 0.3% for the week, marking its weakest performance since August 1, and now stands 0.8% below its all-time high.
• The Nasdaq slipped 0.7%, its sharpest drop since early August, while the Dow inched down 0.2%, ending a three-week winning streak. Last week, sentiment turned cautious as investors questioned the staying power of the AI boom and the likelihood of rapid Fed rate cuts. Attention is now fixed on the September nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release Friday morning. Wall Street may need another “just right” result to sustain the bullish momentum. However, the looming government shutdown poses a challenge — if it takes effect midweek, the much-anticipated jobs data could face delays.
  
   

‘Buffett Indicator’ hits record 217%

• Warren Buffett’s preferred yardstick for stock valuations has soared to a record high, reviving fears of market excess. The “Buffett Indicator,” which compares the value of U.S. equities to gross domestic product, now stands at 217%, well above peaks during the Dot-com bubble and the 2021 rally.
• Buffett once warned that readings near 200% meant investors were “playing with fire.” While some argue the gauge may be outdated in today’s tech-driven economy, the extreme level, paired with Berkshire Hathaway’s $344 billion cash hoard and 11 straight quarters of net stock selling, highlights Buffett’s caution as Wall Street charges ahead.

Stocks on the move:

• Paccar (PCAR): Shares jumped 5% after President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks starting Oct. 1.
• Boeing (BA): The stock rallied more than 4% as Turkish Airlines ordered 75 Boeing 787s and finalized talks to purchase 150 737 MAX aircraft.
• Intel (INTC): Shares climbed 4% following a Wall Street Journal report that the company had approached Apple, Taiwan Semiconductor, and others about potential investments.
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): The bitcoin miner rose 2% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy/high risk from neutral, partially recovering from a 4.1% drop earlier in the week.

Watchlist: CCL, TSLA, AAPL, AMD, INTC, NVDA, RBLX, RIOT, BA

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Monday. Sony Financial Group shares surged 36% in their Tokyo debut, but broader Japanese markets retreated, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.84% and the Topix falling 1.57% after hitting record highs on Friday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.71%.
• U.S. stock futures were little changed after Wall Street’s losing week, as enthusiasm for the AI trade cooled. Dow futures edged up 17 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were flat. It’s a busy Monday ahead with several FOMC members scheduled to speak, former President Trump set to appear at 1:15 p.m., and key data on pending home sales due.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin ($BTC) has rebounded 2.23% over the past 24 hours, climbing to $112,116.05 after briefly dipping to $107,000 last week. The move higher was supported by renewed ETF inflows and a technical bounce from oversold conditions, helping stabilize the market after a volatile week.
• Sentiment indicators are also showing signs of improvement. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index, often viewed as a barometer of investor psychology, has eased its fear reading. This shift suggests that anxiety is fading and confidence is slowly returning to the digital asset space.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99 000-125 000, Ethereum: 4000-4980, Solana: 180-240
   

Forex

• The EUR/USD rose for a second consecutive session, trading near 1.1720 in Asia as the dollar weakened amid growing expectations for a Fed rate cut. August PCE inflation edged up to 2.7% YoY, while core PCE held at 2.9%. The ECB is seen nearing the end of its easing cycle, with services improving but manufacturing still weak.
• USD/JPY slipped to around 149.50 after the PCE data reinforced the Fed’s dovish outlook. Gains for the yen may be capped, however, as markets expect the Bank of Japan to delay rate hikes.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1880, USD/JPY: 140-151

Basic Materials

• Oil (WTI) traded just below $65 in Monday’s Asian session, attracting modest bids as the U.S. Dollar extended its correction and Fed rate-cut expectations grew. Sentiment was also supported by reports that OPEC+ may boost output and Iraq is preparing to resume exports via Turkey.
• Gold (XAU/USD) hit a fresh record above $3,800, lifted by steady U.S. inflation data that reinforced bets on further Fed easing. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, while ongoing geopolitical risks continue to fuel safe-haven demand.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600-3820, US Oil: 55.60-75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

07:30 am: USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks
08:00 am: USD FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
10:00 am: USD Pending Home Sales
01:15 pm: USD President Trump Speaks
01:30 pm: USD FOMC Member Williams, Bostic Speaks



Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open):

CCL                 Carnical Corporation

AMC (After Market Close): JEF, MTN, PRGS



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!