Markets eye key U.S. Data as volatility looms 25/09/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The three major U.S. indexes declined for a second consecutive session on Wednesday as leading names in the artificial intelligence sector, including Nvidia, Oracle, and Micron Technology, lost momentum. The pullback appears to be tied to concerns over record-high valuations and potentially fragile, circular dynamics within the AI sector following recent deals.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum spent much of Wednesday in the red, while the “Mag 7” slid, except Tesla, which jumped 4% after an analyst upgrade. Alibaba ($BABA) joined the AI investment wave, rallying after committing more than $50 billion to AI initiatives. Looking ahead, Thursday’s jobless claims report will be a closely watched data release, with investors weighing its implications for Federal Reserve policy as concerns mount over a cooling labor market and rising layoffs.

History points higher after Fed Cut

• History suggests more upside for U.S. stocks after the Fed’s recent rate cut: since 1984, when the S&P 500 was near record highs, the index gained an average of 13% over the next year, and nearly 18% when no recession followed. With the S&P 500 already up 12.9% in 2025 and setting fresh records, LPL’s Adam Turnquist notes overbought conditions may trigger a pullback, but he sees low recession risk and views any dip as a potential buying opportunity in a market still powered by cyclical leadership.
• Recent GDP figures reinforce this outlook, with the U.S. economy expanding at a 3.3% annualized pace and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker indicating similar momentum in Q3. Investors, however, remain divided, with some worried stretched valuations and weakening market breadth could make the rally fragile if growth cools or the labor market weakens further.

Stocks on the move:

• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): Dropped nearly 12% after declaring force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia and warning of weaker Q3 copper and gold sales.
• UniQure (QURE):  Soared 250% as its experimental Huntington’s gene therapy slowed disease progression in a key trial.
• Thor Industries (THO): Gained 6% on earnings of $2.36 per share vs. $1.28 expected, with revenue also topping forecasts.
• Alibaba (BABA): Jumped 9% after pledging over $50B for AI and rolling out new products.

Watchlist: COST, MU, NVDA, TSLA, QURE, JBL, KMX, AMZN

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific markets mostly edged higher in volatile Thursday trading, diverging from Wall Street, where tech stocks like Nvidia and Oracle saw a second day of selling. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.24% as investors watched Chery Automobile’s $1.2 billion IPO debut on the index.
• U.S. stock futures were steady overnight: S&P 500 futures gained 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures hovered just above flat, and Dow futures rose 39 points (0.1%). Traders are focused on weekly jobless claims and GDP data due today, while keeping a close eye on Friday’s PCE inflation report and ongoing risks of a U.S. government shutdown.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin bounced sharply to $113,900 on Wednesday after dipping to fresh weekly lows near $111,000 on Binance during Asia hours. The recovery, backed by bullish divergences, suggests a mid-week rebound attempt.
• Still, whale wallets have offloaded roughly 147,000 BTC since August, adding supply pressure, while options implied volatility has slumped to multi-year lows, a setup that could precede a sharp breakout move.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99 000-125 000, Ethereum: 4000-4980, Solana: 180-240

Forex

• EUR/USD steadies near 1.1750 after a 0.5% drop, pressured by weak German IFO data. Traders await the GfK survey, with FedWatch indicating a 92% chance of a rate cut in October.
• The USD/JPY dips as the yen strengthens on hawkish BoJ minutes, although political risks and U.S. tariffs cap gains. Focus shifts to Tokyo CPI and Friday’s U.S. PCE data.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1880, USD/JPY: 140-151

Basic Materials

• WTI crude trades near $64.55 in Thursday’s Asian session, easing after profit-taking from a three-week high. A small draw in U.S. inventories (-607K barrels) and geopolitical risks tied to Ukraine-Russia may limit the downside.
• Gold (XAU/USD) hovers below $3,750, fluctuating in a narrow range. Fed Chair Powell’s comments fueled uncertainty over the rate-cut path, supporting the USD, while ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to underpin safe-haven demand.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600-3780, US Oil: 55.60-75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Final GDP
08:30 am: USD Unemployment Claims
08:30 am: USD Durable Goods Orders
08:30 am: USD Goods Trade Balance
09:00 am: USD FOMC Member Schmid, Williams Speaks
10:00 am: USD ExistingHome Sales
10:00 am: USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open):

ACN                     Accenture Plc
JBL                       Jabil Inc.
SNX                      TD Synnex Corp.
KMX                     Carmax Inc.

AMC (After Market Close): COST, CNXC



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!