Bull Market run: Just a pause or over? 24/09/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The S&P 500 paused its rally on Tuesday as investors grew cautious over whether the artificial intelligence boom can continue to drive markets higher. The benchmark index slipped 0.55% after touching a fresh intraday peak earlier in the day and coming off a record close on Monday. The Nasdaq Composite declined nearly 1%, dragged down by AI heavyweights such as Nvidia, Oracle, and Amazon, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.19%, to end at 46,292.78.
• Nvidia fell 2.8% after Fed Chair Jerome Powell reignited valuation worries, remarking that “equity prices are fairly highly valued.” Powell also cautioned that the path for rate reductions remains uncertain, calling it a “challenging situation.” Even so, overall declines were contained. The small-cap Russell 2000 briefly notched a record high during the session, buoyed by optimism from last week’s Fed rate cut, before slipping 0.2% by the close.

Bull Market run: Just a pause or over?

• The U.S. stock rally may only pause briefly this year despite lofty valuations, says Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Slimmon. He sees tech, financials, and industrials continuing to outperform, supported by the Fed’s recent “no-recession” rate cut. Historically, when the Fed resumes easing without signs of contraction, equities tend to climb, especially growth stocks. Slimmon doesn’t expect big market rotations in Q4, noting that year-to-date winners usually hold their lead into year-end. He expects earnings for 2025–26 to surpass Wall Street forecasts, with tariffs having a less significant impact than initially feared, as firms reduce costs rather than passing them on to consumers. 
• Investors sitting on cash are waiting for a pullback, but Slimmon thinks stocks are more likely to pause than correct, especially with new legislation potentially boosting consumer spending next year. He also favors industrials tied to AI buildout and financials benefiting from IPO and M&A activity. A risk: the 10-year Treasury yield could rise higher than expected, even as the Fed trims short-term rates.

Stocks on the move:

• Micron (MU) surged in after-hours trading as quarterly revenue jumped 46% from a year earlier. The stock is heading for its strongest monthly gain since December 2009.
• Sempra (SRE) climbed 4% after announcing the $10 billion sale of a 45% stake in its infrastructure unit to KKR and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. The company also unveiled plans to invest $14 billion in expanding its LNG terminal in Port Arthur, Texas.
• Kenvue (KVUE) rebounded 3%, recovering part of yesterday’s sharp 7% drop that followed the Trump administration’s claims of a disputed link between autism and acetaminophen use in Tylenol during pregnancy.
• Boeing (BA) advanced 2% after Bloomberg reported that U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue indicated Washington and Beijing are nearing completion of a “major” aircraft purchase agreement.

Watchlist: AMZN, MU, NVDA, AMD, ORCL, AAPL, KVUE

Today’s action
 

• Asia-Pacific equities weakened on Wednesday, echoing Wall Street’s retreat after Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that “equity prices are fairly highly valued.” Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and mainland China’s CSI 300 were little changed. The Hong Kong Observatory also warned that Super Typhoon Ragasa is lashing higher grounds and southern districts with hurricane-force winds. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.33%, while the Topix declined 0.35%.
• In the U.S., stock futures were steady Tuesday night after the S&P 500 snapped a three-session winning streak and pulled back from record territory. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 18 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures edged 0.06% higher, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.09%. On the economic calendar, investors await the release of new home sales data.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $112,181, with bulls defending the $112,000 mark just a day after the market saw its largest long-position wipeout of 2025. On Monday, $1.62 billion in longs were liquidated.
• While prices attempt to stabilize, Glassnode analysts caution that Bitcoin may be entering its “late-cycle phase.” Top movers in the crypto space include ASTER, ZEC, and PUMP, which extended gains despite the heightened volatility.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99 000-125 000, Ethereum: 4000-4980, Solana: 180-240
   

Forex

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened on Wednesday, pushing USD/JPY to 148.00 after Japan’s manufacturing PMI showed the steepest contraction in six months. Political uncertainty and U.S. tariff concerns may delay BoJ hikes, while a firmer Dollar added pressure.
• The EUR/USD slipped back to 1.1800 as Powell warned about inflation, lifting the US dollar. Weak French PMI data added to euro losses, with traders eyeing Germany’s IFO survey next.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1880, USD/JPY: 140-151

Basic Materials

• WTI crude hovered near $63.50 in Wednesday’s Asian session after a 2% jump the day before. Prices were supported by API data showing U.S. crude stocks fell 3.8 million barrels last week, the largest draw in seven weeks, and by NATO’s pledge of a “robust” response to Russian airspace incursions.
• Gold (XAU/USD) steadied around $3,760 after pulling back from a record $3,791. Expectations of further Fed rate cuts in October and December, along with safe-haven demand, continue to underpin the metal ahead of Friday’s U.S. PCE inflation data.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600-3760, US Oil: 55.60-75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

10:00 am: USD New Home Sales
10:30 am: USD Crude Oil Inventories


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open):

CTAS                Cintas Corp..
THO                  Thor Industries

AMC (After Market Close): KBH, WS, FUL



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!