Relentless Rally: Bulls Show No Fear 16/09/2025

HOT stories for today

US market wrap:

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at record highs, with the S&P finishing above 6,600 for the first time. Markets found support in President Donald Trump’s upbeat comments on trade talks with China, while Alphabet jumped more than 4% and Tesla rose over 3%, leading tech gains.
• Focus now turns to Wednesday’s key FOMC meeting, with expectations for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut and updated forecasts on inflation and policy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the TikTok deal was close to completion but gave no details. Trump also suggested moving corporate earnings reports from quarterly to semiannual filings.

Trump eyes end to Quarterly Reports
 

• President Donald Trump proposed shifting U.S. companies from quarterly to semiannual earnings reports, saying it would cut costs and encourage long-term focus. The SEC confirmed it is reviewing the idea, which could be approved by a majority vote within a year.
• The debate isn’t new: Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon have criticized quarterly guidance as short-term driven, while supporters argue frequent reports provide vital transparency. Though Trump cited China as an example, Chinese firms also file quarterly results, unlike companies in Europe and Hong Kong that report semiannually.

Stocks on the move:

• Tesla (TSLA): Shares of the EV manufacturer jumped 6% after CEO Elon Musk revealed he purchased $1 billion worth of stock on Friday.
• On Semiconductor (ON), Analog Devices (ADI), Texas Instruments (TXN) — China announced an antidumping investigation into U.S. analog chip imports. On Semiconductor slipped 1%, Analog Devices edged lower, and Texas Instruments dropped over 3%.
• Western Digital (WDC): The storage solutions company boosted hard drive prices amid “unprecedented demand,” sending its shares up more than 5% to a record high.
• Alaska Air (ALK): The airline slid over 5% after projecting third-quarter EPS at the lower end of its $1.00–$1.40 outlook.

Watchlist: TSLA, CRWV, ORCL, NVDA, AVGO, AAPL, PLAY

Today’s action

• Asia-Pacific equities mostly advanced after President Donald Trump said U.S.-China trade talks in Spain were making progress, though sentiment was tempered by a “framework” deal over TikTok’s divestment. Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke above 45,000 for the first time, while South Korea’s Kosdaq slipped 0.18%. Australia’s ASX/S&P 200 added 0.26%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dipped 0.13% and China’s CSI 300 fell 0.28%.
• In the U.S., futures were little changed Monday night after the Senate confirmed Trump’s nominee Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve, ahead of the central bank’s rate decision. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both eased 0.07%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 40 points, or 0.09%. Investors now await data on retail sales, import prices, housing, and inventories due Tuesday, with no major earnings scheduled.

Bitcoin
 

• Bitcoin (BTC $115,140) traders are bracing for volatility ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision, with markets widely expecting the first cut of 2025 on Wednesday. Bulls face key resistance at $117,000 to extend gains.
• A widely followed Bitcoin forecasting model signals fresh all-time highs within weeks, while Binance order-book data suggests heavy weekend buying. Institutional demand also surged, reportedly nine times greater than newly mined supply last week, adding upward price pressure.
  Watchlist: Bitcoin: 99 000-125 000, Ethereum: 4000-4980, Solana: 160-214

Forex

• The euro climbed from 1.1716 to 1.1763 Monday as markets priced in a 25 bps Fed cut for September, with little chance of 50 bps. Softer U.S. retail sales and weaker industrial output weighed on the dollar, while EUR/USD rose 0.21% despite France’s credit downgrade. Focus now turns to ECB’s Escriva, Italian inflation, ZEW surveys, and eurozone industrial data.
• The yen strengthened, pulling USD/JPY to 147.00 in Asia, as expectations for a BoJ rate hike contrasted with Fed easing bets. Still, politics and risk appetite could cap further JPY gains.
  Watchlist: EUR/USD: 1.0700-1.1780, USD/JPY: 140-151

Basic Materials

• WTI crude extended gains for a third session, trading near $63.20 in Asia on Tuesday. Prices were lifted by supply concerns after Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy facilities and growing U.S. pressure on buyers of Russian crude.
• Gold (XAU/USD) eased slightly on Tuesday after hitting a record $3,689–3,690, consolidating ahead of key central bank decisions. Fed rate-cut bets continue to pressure the dollar and support the metal, though overbought conditions limit further upside.
  Watchlist: GOLD: 2600-3700, US Oil: 55.60-75.80

Key Economic Events Today:

EST time

08:30 am: USD Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales
08:30 am: USD Import Prices
09:15 am: USD Industrial Production
10:00 am: USD Business Inventories
10:00 am: USD NAHB Housing Index


Earnings

BMO (Before Market Open):

No significant earnings today!



The TEFS Analyst team wishes you a successful day!